The names have changed, but the Patriots have figured out their winning recipe

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New England is 3-3, but they now know what they are on offense

Early in the fourth quarter on Sunday, New England Patriots rookie passer Bailey Zappe linked up with wide receiver Jakobi Meyers on a 27-yard gain, to get the Patriots near midfield against the Cleveland Browns.

The play was one of many in New England’s comfortable 38-15 win on the road, and with the Patriots enjoying a 24-9 lead at the time of the completion, it did not wildly impact the Patriots’ win probability in the moment.

So why would anyone lead a column about the New England offense with that play? Because in many ways, it sums up the Patriots offense to this point in the season, as it was a variation, a change-of-pace, from one of their core offensive concepts, and helps illustrate how the Patriots have improved to 3-3 on the season, with a new offensive playcaller and a rookie fourth-round pick at the helm of their offense.

With 14:30 left in the game, the rookie passer making just his second NFL start lined up under center, for a 1st down play. Given the Patriots were ahead by 15 running the football was certainly on the menu, as the visitors looked to salt away the victory. Prior to the snap, it certainly looked like the Patriots were going to run the football, as they used 12 personnel, putting a pair of tight ends in the game.

That made the situation ideal for a play-action design, which is exactly what offensive playcaller and de facto offensive coordinator Matt Patricia sent in to his quarterback. The fact that Patricia went play-action in that moment was not notable, but the design was. Patricia dialed up a variation on the popular post/over concept that every team runs at least once on an NFL Sunday, including the Patriots, who ran it midway through the second quarter, with Jakobi Meyers catching a throw from Zappe on the over route for a 20-yard gain, also with 12 personnel on the field:

Then in the fourth quarter, the Patriots and Patricia hit Cleveland with the change-up.

On the right side of the formation, wide receiver Meyers ran the deep out-breaking pattern, first selling the defense on the over route he ran earlier in the game before breaking back towards the sideline. Watch as both the cornerback and the free safety anticipate Meyers breaking towards the middle of the field and react accordingly, only to be caught peeking as Meyers breaks towards the outside:

This little tweak is emblematic of the adjustments the Patriots have made over the past few weeks. Not just in terms of crafting an offense for a rookie, fourth-round draft pick, but in terms of the adjustments in the running game, and the willingness to lean into what the team does best, and not what the coaches hoped the offense would be.

All summer long, the stories out of New England relayed a new approach on offense, with an emphasis on condensed formations and outside zone running plays, with some boot-action designs off of those run looks sprinkled in. These were not necessarily new plays in the Patriots’ playbook — you can find these designs back in their 2003 playbook for example — but the emphasis was new.

However, the results did not instill confidence, as the offense sputtered and struggled in training camp. The palace intrigue over who would be calling plays gave way to concern over what plays would be called.

Then, the games began, and the Patriots opened the year with a loss to the Miami Dolphins. In that game, New England ran nine plays charted as outside zone runs, according to data from Sports Info Solutions. Only the Cincinnati Bengals ran more in the first week of the season.

Since then, they have only run 11 such plays, fifth-fewest in the league, according to SIS. Now, data is not in from Sunday’s game against the Browns, but from watching that game, it did not change. Studying that game, by my eye the Patriots ran three outside zone concepts on Sunday against the Browns.

Because during this stretch, the Patriots have shifted their focus in the ground game, relying more on gap and power concepts. Again, while the data from Sunday is not in yet, after Week 1 the Patriots ran 33 plays charted as gap or power concepts, which was fifth-most in the NFL during that four-game stretch.

On those 33 runs, according to SIS, they averaged 7.2 yards per carry (third-most in the league on those plays) and an Expected Points Added per Attempt (EPA/A) of 0.17, fourth-most in the league on those plays.

Another shift? More success on inside zone running designs. Back in Week 1, the Patriots ran five such plays, gaining just nine yards. Yet, they did not move away from the concept, and in Weeks 2 through 5, they ran 37 plays charted as inside zone, the second-most in the league during that period. On those plays, the Patriots posted an EPA/A of 0.08, eighth-most in the league.

Sunday’s big play in the running game, a 31-yard touchdown from Rhamondre Stevenson? It came on an inside zone design:

Even if this was the only adjustment made by the New England offense over the past few weeks, Patricia, Joe Judge and the rest of the offensive staff would deserve credit. For all the hand-wringing about who would be calling plays, and what those plays would be, from back in the summer, this coaching staff has done something that at times is rare in the NFL.

Change course.

Often, we see coaches come in and believe that their schematic philosophy is the solution to anything that ails an offense or a defense. Their schemes will solve the problems, and the players running the plays need to get on board. Under Bill Belichick, however, the Patriots have bucked this trend. They find what their players do best, and lean into those concepts on both sides of the ball.

A prime example comes from the 2018 season, when New England leaned into a 21 personnel, power running game down the stretch. That got them into the playoffs, and earned them a first-round bye in the postseason. This despite having Tom Brady under center, and having a vision of spread-heavy attack relying mightily on the passing game.

Now, despite the preseason vision of an offense relying heavily on outside zone concepts in the running game, the Patriots have again found a different approach, and leaned into what fits their personnel best.

Of course, the running game is just part of the story. The past few weeks, Patricia has been calling plays not for Mac Jones, their incumbent starting quarterback, but Zappe, a fourth-round pick out of Western Kentucky who played one season of FBS football. The coaching staff has found ways to put Zappe in position to succeed, partly thanks to what they are doing in the running game, and partly through a holdover aspect of their preseason emphasis in the running game.

We can start with that latter point. One of the reasons the Patriots wanted to incorporate more outside zone running plays into their offense was a desire to operate out of more condensed formations, with more bunch looks from their receivers? Why? As a means of creating separation for those receivers due to formation and alignment. By compressing the field a bit, and putting more bodies into smaller areas, the Patriots could create traffic, springing receivers open in the passing game.

Take this play from last week against the Detroit Lions, as Meyers works himself open on a pivot route out of a bunch formation:

Or take this play from Sunday against the Browns:

In both examples, the Patriots operate out of a condensed, three-receiver bunch to one side of the field. You can see how these condensed formations stress the defense, by creating traffic and forcing the defenders to adjust as the receivers switch paths off the line of scrimmage. That puts the secondary into a read-and-react mode, which is a good thing for an offense. On the first play, Meyers is open on a pivot route, and Zappe hits him in stride to move the chains on 3rd and 5. In the example from Sunday, Kendrick Bourne gets open on a simple curl route, allowing Zappe to hit him in the space created by the releases of the other two receivers in the bunch.

The result? A 17-yard gain on 3rd and 7 to move the chains.

This holdover element from the emphasis in the running game from the summer has paid off in the passing game for New England.

The other aspect to the passing game that has worked with Zappe at the helm? Play-action designs off of their inside zone and power concepts. We have already seen this with the first two clips, but consider this play from Week 5 against the Lions. Another example of the Patriots running that post/over concept, working off a fake in the inside run game:

Then on Sunday against the Browns, Patricia again leaned into this inside run game to create a big play in the passing game. With the Patriots facing a 3rd and 1, they lined up in a heavy package, with reserve tackle Marcus Cannon in the game as a third tight end. Zappe faked an inside handoff to Stevenson, before hitting tight end Hunter Henry on an out route for a 31-yard touchdown:

Credit to Zappe on this play, for hanging in the pocket against a pressure package from Cleveland and punishing the blitz with the touchdown, something the rookie quarterback did well on Sunday:

Again, adjusting the offense to what you do well, leaning into that in both the passing game and the running game, and building off of those concepts to hit the defense with some change-ups. That is what good playcallers do, and it is what Patricia has done over the past few weeks.

The result? The Patriots are now 3-3, having been left for dead after a 1-3 start and with Jones sidelined with a high-ankle sprain. Instead of wondering whether New England was done and dusted, now we are asking if this can continue, and whether the Patriots actually have a quarterback controversy.

Let’s deal with the second point first. Perhaps the best way to frame what New England is facing at the quarterback position came from Matt Chatham, a former linebacker for the Patriots, when he termed the situation in New England not as a quarterback controversy, but a quarterback “luxury:”

Similar to the success of Cooper Rush for the Dallas Cowboys, at least prior to Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles, the success of Zappe these past few weeks have bought the Patriots time. Time to let Jones completely heal so he can return at full strength for the second half of the season.

Having a solid backup option is today’s NFL is a luxury few teams enjoy. For many, if the starter goes down, the season goes south. Zappe’s play has given Jones time to heal, and it has also shown the coaching staff that if something happens to Jones in the future, the offense will be in capable hands.

When Jones is healthy, he is the starter in New England. But now the Patriots know if that changes, or the second-year passer suddenly becomes ineffective, they have an option behind him. Because Zappe has played well, and while his second touchdown pass Sunday was likely due more to scheme, situation and execution from those around him, his first touchdown pass was a result of his quick thinking in the pocket:

New England faces a 3rd and goal from the 2-yard line, and Patricia dials up a rub concept to the right side of the formation, where Henry and Meyers are aligned in a tight slot. Again, the Patriots are trying to create traffic, and spring Meyers open on a quick out route. But the Browns cover it well, and Zappe’s initial look is not an option.

What does the rookie do? He resets his eyes and feet to the middle of the field, spying fellow rookie Tyquan Thornton on a slant route. The rookie is open, and Zappe hits his second read on the play for the touchdown.

Zappe has been poised in the pocket, has made some big throws, and has shown solid decision-making for a rookie. And given the Patriots a solid backup option behind Jones, their first-round investment from a year ago.

As to the other question, and whether this can continue in New England. This was the stretch of the schedule where the Patriots would be expected to make some noise. After their first four games, they faced a three-game stretch with the Lions, Browns and next, the Chicago Bears. Three winnable games on their schedule. Following next week’s tilt against the Bears, the Patriots square off with the New York Jets, the Indianapolis Colts, and then the Jets again following their bye week.

Again, games that look winnable, although the Jets certainly look feisty right now.

That sets up their critical stretch to close the season out, with a pair of games against the Buffalo Bills, and a rematch of their Week 1 loss to the Dolphins. Throw in the Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving night, and the Cincinnati Bengals on Christmas Eve, and you have a tough slate of games in the drive to the playoffs.

But what have we seen from New England, that we have seen so many times before? A coaching staff taking the time in the first few weeks to figure out what they do best, and a corresponding emphasis on those elements as the team starts to gel and come together. It has been a winning recipe for the Patriots in the past, and while some of the names have changes, it looks like it could deliver similar results in New England this season.