Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Houston got drastically better now, but this move could haunt them.
Nobody made a bigger splash on night one of the 2023 NFL Draft than the Houston Texans. That goes without saying when you make two picks inside the top-five. The rebuilding team, rich with draft assets from the Deshaun Watson trade, marked a new era with DeMeco Ryans at the helm by getting one of the draft’s best quarterbacks in C.J. Stroud, then turned around to get the best pass rusher in Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr.
On the surface this might all seem great, and it very well could be. It’s ludicrously early in the process — however, there’s also serious potential that the Texans could have pulled off one of the biggest draft blunders in the modern era by trading back up to that No. 3 pick.
What draft picks did the Texans trade?
In order to move back up to No. 3 in 2023 the Texans traded away their No. 12 pick and No. 33 pick in 2023, their first round pick in 2024, and a third round pick in 2024. These picks all go to the Arizona Cardinals.
Why could this go wrong?
Projecting this season this far out if a bit of a fool’s errand, but it’s also precisely the kind of move a general manager should be evaluating before making a trade like the one Houston did.
To give you an idea of perception, the Texans are currently tied for last place in Super Bowl futures odds on Draft Kings. This is far the be all, end all — but at the very least this means that the gambling community believe Houston will be one of the worst teams in the NFL next season.
This is supported anecdotally as well. While the Texans had a phenomenal draft and made an amazing coaching hire in Ryans, this is an organization that is still severely lacking top-end talent. This team was 30th in the NFL in scoring and 27th in points allowed a year ago, being one of the worst teams on both sides of the ball.
The answers Houston tried to find in free agency are questionable at best. Their two major signings were FS Jimmie Ward and WR Robert Woods. Both are older players who had middling results in 2022.
Essentially the Texans will hope that this pair of free agents, coupled with a rookie QB and pass rusher will help turn the tide. It’s definitely a good starting point for a rebuild, but it’s difficult right now to see the Texans being drastically better than they were a year ago.
So, if things pan things out the way they look right now, there’s a very real chance Houston could have had the No. 1 or No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, which will now go to Arizona.
The 2024 draft class is rich in top-end talent the way the 2023 draft class wasn’t. An early pick next year is inherently worth more than picking early in this one, and essentially Houston took a huge gamble on improvement which right now is difficult to imagine.
What an alternate path for the Texans could have looked like
There’s a lot of angst about what happened to Houston at No. 2. There’s substantial belief that the front office wanted to take Will Anderson at No. 2 and wait on a quarterback, only to be overruled by ownership and pressured into taking C.J. Stroud.
To be fair, I think the decision to take Stroud was the correct one. At the next level he’s going to be a very solid, reliable QB with a chance to become a star. So, as we project an alternate path for their 2023 draft and into 2024 let’s assume that Stroud remained the pick at No. 2.
Alternate 2023 draft class for the Houston Texans
No. 2: C.J. Stroud, QB — Ohio State
No. 12: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE — Iowa
No. 33: Marvin Mims, WR — Oklahoma
The biggest difference here is that the Texans take a big step back in edge rusher quality as they move from Will Anderson Jr. to Lukas Van Ness, but get a better wide receiver in a similar mold by getting Marvin Mims over Tank Dell, who Houston took in the third round.
The kicker really comes in 2024, because if the sportsbooks are right and Houston is picking No. 2 a year from now they will have missed out on …
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR — Ohio State
This is where the decision in 2023 could go off the rails. Harrison Jr. is one of the best college receivers we have ever seen, period. With Jaxon Smith-Njigba moving on to the NFL there’s a very real chance Harrison Jr’s stats will swell in the upcoming season — and he already had 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns.
We’ve seen just how effective the college handcuff can be in the NFL. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are one of the best duos in the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle joined them last year. The idea of pairing C.J. Stroud with Marvin Harrison Jr. given their history at Ohio State would be a dream come true, and right now it’s seemingly impossible how it could come to pass.
Pairing an absolute all-around monster like Marvin Harrison Jr. with a speedster in Marvin Mims would be a phenomenal offensive base for Stroud as a young QB. The Texans have a fairly decent offensive line, which should be enough to protect Stroud. There was a very real chance at something incredibly special that won’t be realized.
Where does this leave us?
It’s really unfortunate for Will Anderson Jr, because he will be forever compared to what could have been if this season goes wrong. What’s the threshold needed where fans would still be happy with this deal? 15 sacks? 20 sacks? Is there a number that can be reached if it means costing this team a chance at having one of the best offenses in the NFL?
Houston could quite easily become a middling team this season, but even the most generous estimate only puts them at seven or eight wins max. Theoretically the Texans could have packaged both their pick and Cleveland’s in 2024 to move up for a receiver like Marvin Harrison Jr. anyway.
There’s definitely something to be said for getting two excellent players like they did, but there’s a very real chance they passed up a chance to become elite in the process.
