Week 13 NFL upset picks include Dolphins over Packers and Panthers over Buccaneers

SB Nation is here to help you make the most of the long holiday football weekend with some upset selections

Thanksgiving is about many things.

It is about spending time with family. It is about preparing recipes that have been passed down for generations. It is about avoiding that awkward conversation with your uncle who truly believes that this year his business is going to take off, and you need to just get in on the ground floor.

And of course, it is about football.

This year Thanksgiving is home to three NFL games, plus the second “Black Friday” game on Amazon Prime, then of course the rest of the Week 13 NFL slate.

Here are some upsets that you might want to tell that uncle about as a potential Plan B if that business really does not get off the ground.

Arizona Cardinals (+4) over Minnesota Vikings — Mark Schofield

The Arizona Cardinals are SB Nation, certified fun.

They are finding ways to be creative and explosive in the passing game out of bigger personnel packages. Kyler Murray is turning in one of his best years in recent memory, and their defense can create some chaos on the other side of the football.

Sam Darnold sometimes is prone to mistakes in chaos.

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) over Green Bay Packers — Matt Warren

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 0-7 in the NFL in games that were under 40 degrees. The Hawaii-born QB played his college ball in Alabama and doesn’t have a lot of experience in the cold, but this week he had some thoughts on that.

“Yeah, I mean I’m excited to kill narratives, so let’s go. Bring it on,” he told reporters after his team’s win on Sunday.

The temperature at kickoff is expected to be 33 degrees and falling on Thursday night with an overnight low in the teens. So why would I pick the Dolphins?

Tua isn’t the reason the Dolphins have struggled in 2024, at least not in games he’s actually played. He has a 74% completion percentage, a 1.7% interception percentage, and a success rate of 52.2% according to Pro Football Focus. His QB rating is 106.2. When he suits up, he has been solid.

The Packers defense, meanwhile, is benefitting greatly from turnovers, leading the league in forcing them on 17.9% of the opposing drives. Tagovailoa has four interceptions on the year and three came in one game. He’s protecting the ball and if he can do that on Thursday, the Dolphins have a great chance to finish on top.

Packers quarterback Jordan Love is the opposite of Tua, and had thrown an interception in every game in 2024 until this past weekend. He is second in the league with 11 picks behind Geno Smith and has the second-highest interception percentage behind only Will Levis.

Both teams have a pretty extensive injury report on the short week, and that’s sure to play a factor, as well.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) over Cincinnati Bengals — JP Acosta

I don’t really know how the Steelers keep doing this, but I’m going to keep believing in their devil magic until it stops working. I thought the Steelers offense played well considering the fact that they played in a blizzard on Thursday, and if they can get explosives in the run game it helps make their offense more dynamic. Well considering their ability to get explosives and need to do it on the ground, they have the perfect ability to do it against a Bengals’ run defense that still gives up too much on the ground. They’ve picked themselves up to 17th in Success Rate on runs against them since week six, but still 26th in EPA per carry allowed. They’ve gotten better at not giving up singles and doubles, but the home run ball is still in play against them. If the Steelers can get explosives on the ground combined with the George Pickens chaos machine, the Steelers can win this game. Add in the TJ Watt variable, and I’m fine with picking the Steelers here.

Carolina Panthers (+6.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers — James Dator

I feel like such a dirty homer continually picking the Panthers against the spread, but I don’t know how the lines keep coming out like this. Last week I told y’all to take Carolina +11 vs. the Chiefs, and that paid off — so I’m doing it here again too.

It’s not that I necessarily think the Panthers will win, but rather that I think they can keep this game close. Everything is starting to click for Bryce Young and the Carolina offense, and with Adam Thielen back in the lineup it adds a wrinkle. He should joined by Jalen Coker, one of Young’s favorite targets who missed the game against the Chiefs due to a tweaked quad.

On average the Bucs are only scoring 3.3 more points than they allow this season. A lot of their wins have been close. I think this could be another one where the Panthers either come away with the W, or lose narrowly.