Which NBA Cinderella stories should you believe in?

Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Three small markets. Who should you invest in?

The top of the Western Conference in the National Basketball Association is mildly surprising. The reigning NBA Champions, the Golden State Warriors, are far below – we’re talking play-in far. The same is true of the squad many chose to be #1 in the standings when the season concluded, the Los Angeles Clippers. The Los Angeles Lakers, the Dallas Mavericks…all four of these teams have two things in common.

They’re supposed to up higher in the standings than they currently are, per most pundits.
These larger markets are, as of now, looking up at the New Orleans Pelicans, Memphis Grizzlies, and Sacramento Kings.

Long live small-market Cinderella magic! Three teams having strong starts to their seasons in places that don’t have the allure of free agency buzz and bright lights. Somewhere fans are hoping for some Pelicans/Kings/Grizzlies combination for the Western Conference Finals. And somewhere, a television executive just had a cold chill go down their spine.

Unfortunately, the clock will probably strike midnight on one of these teams eventually. The Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets, currently among the top-5 in the West with New Orleans/Memphis/Sacramento, aren’t going anywhere barring injury. And as fun as it would be to say “welcome to the play-in” to Stephen Curry, or Luka Doncic, or Kawhi Leonard/Paul George, it feels…unlikely. At some point, stars will be stars, championship pedigree will kick in, and those combinations will unseat SOMEONE from the ranks of conference elite.

But who will avoid that fate and remain at the top of the standings? Which “underdog” story should you believe in?

There is a correct answer. A squad whose place among the very best the NBA has to offer should not be in question. And even the mighty Warriors should be keeping a weary eye on this team as the year prepares to turn.

The Memphis Grizzlies

Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Not only will the Memphis Grizzlies, who likely take offense to being called “underdogs”, not tumble down the standings (assuming health improvements/maintaining for all teams involved), they should be the favorite to be the Western Conference’s #1 seed entering the playoffs.

Consider the following facts-

Exhibit A – The Memphis Grizzlies, currently 17-9 and the #2 seed in the Western Conference, have among the most minutes missed due to injury in the entire NBA. The star trio for Memphis of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. have yet to play together this season.

Exhibit B – The starting five for the Memphis Grizzlies of Ja Morant, John Konchar (filling in for Bane), Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Steven Adams is a +22.2 per Cleaning the Glass, 93rd percentile, in 230 possessions played. The starting five for the Memphis Grizzlies of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Santi Aldama (filling in for Jackson Jr.), and Steven Adams is a +17.2, 87th percentile, in 180 possessions played.

Exhibit C – Brandon Clarke and Tyus Jones, two players who signed multi-year extensions with the Grizzlies this past summer, are playing some of the worst basketball of their careers. Clarke is currently a -11.4 per Cleaning the Glass, and Jones is a staggering -20.1. All their top lineups to this point this season include at least one rookie – either Jake LaRavia, or David Roddy – and their most used lineup that includes bother of them and John Konchar is a disastrous -47.3. They combined are -17.3 as a two-man lineup. Just last season, they were a +26.3 and one of the most impactful duos off the bench in the entire NBA.

So what can we conclude about the 2022-2023 Memphis Grizzlies two weeks from Christmas?

They’re really good. Ja Morant is one of the 10 best players in the NBA, and Grizzlies GM Zach Kleiman has built a roster that fits both Ja and the team’s schemes almost seamlessly. Their development staff may be unmatched in the NBA – seriously, John Konchar and Santi Aldama! – and they have gotten little production from their best reserve players to this point in the season.

Which means…

They’re going to get better. In the 10 games Jaren Jackson Jr. has played since his return he has blocked shots at an elite clip (5.8% block percentage!) and gotten the Grizzlies defense in to the top-5 in the entire NBA. Ziaire Williams – considered a key reserve replacement for the departed from Memphis De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson – just returned from injury. Desmond Bane is slated to do the same in the next several weeks.

When that happens, the Memphis starting five of Morant/Bane/Brooks/Jackson Jr./Adams will lead to a reserve unit of Jones/Konchar/Williams/Clarke/Aldama. No rookies in the rotation. Just guys that have both been in the system and have also gotten minutes with Morant and other starters.

What happens when immaculate vibes meet special athleticism and dribble penetration/play at the rim, two good-to-great defensive forces, an elite rebounder, and a bench unit that finally has some true depth?

A championship contender. That’s what happens.

Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

The New Orleans Pelicans

The New Orleans Pelicans are legit as well – a team that shares the Memphis distinctions of both dealing with injury issues and also being top-10 both in offensive and defensive efficiency for the season. Zion Williamson fills the role of superstar well, like Morant, and the pieces around Zion mesh with what Williamson does best – especially among perimeter players like C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram. Perhaps most importantly, the dark clouds that congregated over New Orleans for some time seem to have dissipated. The vibes, while maybe not immaculate like in Memphis just yet, are vastly improved. Team chemistry matters.

So why pick the Grizzlies over the Pelicans? Memphis has been here before. They were the #2 seed last season. They have had postseason success, winning play-in tournaments and a playoff series. And while the Pelicans have had their own health concerns, Memphis’ issues have been more pronounced. The ceiling for what the Grizzlies can accomplish is unknown at this stage of the season. What the Pelicans have done, while impressive, perhaps is sustainable but probably is not something that – barring a trade – will grow as drastically as what Memphis has coming when combining experience and improvements from proven commodities like Jones and Clarke, as opposed to young/smaller sample size contributors for this New Orleans start like Trey Murphy III and Dyson Daniels.

The Pelicans are for real – they’re just not as real as the Grizzlies. Memphis has real postseason scars that they have earned the last two seasons. New Orleans – while a likely challenger for the next great Western Conference team just like the Grizzlies – hasn’t been in those battles just yet.

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The Sacramento Kings

While the Grizzlies and Pelicans appear ready to stick around, the Kings, however, look more like a Cinderella whose clock may eventually strike midnight – at least in terms of being a top-5 team out west. Sacramento is off to one of their best starts in a very long time, and their offense as led by De’Aaron Fox is among the very best in the league. That aspect of what they are can be maintained. Mike Brown’s schemes and the contributions of Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and others make “lighting the beam” for the Kings likely to happen more often than not.

But while Memphis and New Orleans are currently top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, Sacramento is 17th on the defensive side of things – without much room for improvement internally. The Kings don’t have the same injury issues as the Pelicans and Grizzlies, and part of the issue with their scheme defensively is what has allowed for them to be so strong offensively. Domantas Sabonis is elite as an scoring and passing center but a .9% block rate shows he is not a rim protector. Harrison Barnes and Fox have had issues maintaining defensive energy when compared to offensive expectations. And as well as the team shoots the ball themselves, they have problems defending the three.

That will eventually catch up with them and slow their offensive roll, as the Pelicans and Grizzlies stay the pace. That’s not to say Sacramento will tumble out of the playoffs – they seem here to stay in that conversation. But this about belief in contender status…and the Kings are not ready yet.

New Orleans appears to be closer to that level, and perhaps they hang around the top-5.

But the Memphis Grizzlies were the 2nd best team in terms of record last season. And despite losing two veteran contributors and missing so many minutes of playing time to key players due to injury are close to that level still. They have the greatest ground to make up within, and the highest combination of experience and ability. They know the joy of playoff victory and the sting of postseason defeat. They continue to defy logic with regard to performance – it’s commonplace now.

Because of that reality, it is their conference to take. And regardless of whether or not it’s their “time”, the Memphis Grizzlies seem primed to make it theirs. Whether you believe it or not.