Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
College football conference games will look very different this upcoming season
The landscape of college football is evolving at an incredibly rapid pace. If you are a casual fan or even old-school fan it can be hard to even keep up with the constant changes.
The idea that Stanford could in the Atlantic Coast Conference would be a silly work of fiction. Stanford, after all, is just a short drive from the Pacific Ocean in Palo Alto, California. But that is just one example of the reality we see today in the sport.
Five years ago it would have been absurd for someone to suggest that USC will join the Big Ten, and by the way, the Pac-12 won’t exist. But that’s where we’re at in college athletics, and in the Big Ten, where they’ll have four former Pac-12 teams in the conference starting this season in Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Washington.
There are immediate reasons that jump out why Big Ten expansion will not only work, but thrive, but there are other points that suggest expectations may not always meet reality.
Here are the biggest pros and cons of Big Ten expansion.
Pros
Historic teams squaring off regularly
Michigan and USC have only played ten times in their long histories with their first matchup being in 1947 and their last in 2006. People no longer have to play a video game to see USC vs. Michigan, UCLA vs. Penn State, and so on. This fact isn’t lost on USC head coach Lincoln Riley.
“Just the college football fan in me — it’s pretty damn cool that USC and Michigan are opening up the new Big Ten,” Riley said. “To me, it’s no surprise that the Big Ten would pick those two schools and brands to kind of kick this thing off, so I think it’s awesome.”
College football fans from coast to coast would like to see more of these matchups, which do strengthen the intrigue of the conference, and less of Michigan and Ohio State beating Indiana every year since the late 1980’s.
Recruiting regions are vastly expanding for the better
The former Pac-12 programs are about to have a lot more travel miles heading east aplenty — they’ll travel more than the 14 other Big Ten teams. UCLA will travel 22,048 miles, Washington is next with 17,522 miles, USC’s at 12,710 miles while Oregon’s at 12,520 miles. From a competitive standpoint one would think this will only hurt these teams, but Lincoln Riley looks at it as a way to create recruiting pipelines that didn’t exist before.
“Playing the schedule that we’re gonna play now, I think it opens you up in some regions,” Riley said. “You can even tell before we’ve played a snap. In the last year, we’ve signed kids from Minnesota, we signed kids kids from Michigan. You can already feel that interest before this officially starts.”
The revenue stream will continue to rise
The Big Ten reported the highest revenue of any conference for the 2022-23 fiscal year at $879.9, with the SEC ranking No. 2 at $852.6 million. However, the Big Ten has now added four of the most recognizable programs in the Pac-12, a conference that netted $603.9 million.
With the SEC adding Texas and Oklahoma from the Big 12, the Big Ten was wise to have the same approach out west and add the best of the Pac-12 to their conference. While the ACC and Big 12 still have talented programs like Clemson, Florida State, Utah, and Kansas State, there are only two superconferences and they’re the Big Ten and SEC.
Cons
Three of the four new additions don’t have much momentum heading into 2024
Former USC quarterback Caleb Williams was selected No. 1 overall by the Chicago Bears and it’ll be hard to replace the high level of production he brought to the table. And even with Williams, they still finished the regular season a disappointing 7-5.
Washington may have finished runner up last year, losing to Michigan in the National Championship, but they’re going through what new head coach Jedd Fisch calls a “reboot”. Former head coach Kalen DeBoer replaced the retired Nick Saban at Alabama and to make matters worse their star quarterback Michael Penix Jr. was drafted No. 8 overall by the Atlanta Falcons. Per Fisch, Washington will have “21 of 22 new starters.”
UCLA went 8-5 last year but head coach Chip Kelly left to become Ohio State’s offensive coordinator. First year head coach DeShaun Foster will have his work cut out for him, especially since the Bruins lost nine starters on defense.
Oregon is the lone bright spot out of the four former Pac-12 squads heading into the season. In short, they are championship contenders. The Ducks brought in Oklahoma transfer and Heisman frontrunner, quarterback Dillon Gabriel, to replace Bo Nix who was drafted No. 12 by the Denver Broncos. ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) gives Oregon the best odds in the Big Ten of making it to the National Championship (24.4).
The FPI isn’t as favorable to UCLA, USC, and Washington. UCLA has just a 50.9 percent chance of winning at least six games, while USC and Washington’s projected win-loss aren’t much better at 7.1-5.1 and 6.4-5.6, respectively.
Big Ten Championship location won’t be heading west anytime soon
Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti announced at Big Ten Media Days that the football conference championship game will continue to be held at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis through 2028, calling it “the right thing to do.” But will USC and UCLA fans be willing to leave warm sunny southern California for cold Indy in December?
“I think you’ll begin to see us expand,” Petitti said. “I think it’s important to make sure that markets around the country get to experience Big Ten championships. It’s a really good way to connect the conference. I think over time you’ll start to see the geographic footprint expand, keeping in mind competitive issues.”
Petitti did mention that the conference will eventually expand where the championship game is held, but there’s no guarantee cities like Las Vegas or Los Angeles will be hosting a conference title tilt in this decade.
The Pac-12 hasn’t won a natty in 20 years
Yes, you read that right, it’s been that long since the USC team featuring Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush and head coach Pete Caroll defeated Oklahoma in the National Championship 55-19. Oregon has appeared in two since 2004, while USC and Washington have made one appearance each.
There’s a big difference between being crowned champion and finishing runner-up. People remember the 2004 USC team that beat Oklahoma with the losing team being forgotten. The same will be said for the 2023 Michigan team that toppled Washington. To the victor go the spoils and the likes of Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Washington haven’t played spoiler in the natty for quite awhile.
