Why the NFL is set for a historic QB carousel in 2023

Almost half the NFL needs a new passer and it’s going to be wild.

If you’re a fan of a team with an established quarterback: Congratulations. Seriously. We are fast approaching one of the wildest QB shifts in recent memory, with over a third of the NFL either in need of a new passer, or being in the market for one in the next year or so. Couple this with potential retirements and coaching changes impacting organizational direction and we really could see as much as HALF the NFL needing a new starting QB moving forward.

That sounds like a lot, and it’s because it is. We are at a huge turning point around the league, with scant few teams having young, dynamic, high-tier or franchise quarterbacks to solidify the position for years to come. Let’s take a look at the categories of the needy teams, because even those without a solid future plan fall into different situations.

Five alarm fire: Need a quarterback IMMEDIATELY

Houston Texans

The Texans should be picking No. 1 overall, and they’ve messed around trying the Davis Mills experiment long enough. There is no wiggle room when it comes to their draft pick — it has to be a passer, and there are good enough players in either Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud to justify spending the pick.

My best guess for QB in 2023: Bryce Young

New York Jets

The Zach Wilson era is over and it didn’t even make it two years. This was a mistake pick, and the team has admitted it. Considering how good the Jets could be, finding a quarterback is of paramount concern. I think stability is the name of the game here, and this team just needs a reliable hand for a year or two while they work towards finding a long-term option.

My best guess for QB in 2023: Jimmy Garoppolo

Las Vegas Raiders

Derek Carr is being benched in Vegas, and this team is moving on. Suddenly quarterback has become this team’s No. 1 need — outside of firing Josh McDaniels. Normally I’d say this is a situation where Las Vegas needs to make a smart decision to leverage their talented roster, but both McDaniels and the organization love to make big flashy moves.

My best guess for QB in 2023: Will Levis

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have to stop existing on signing old quarterbacks and hoping it’ll carry them through. Indianapolis will likely be picking in the Top 5, and should have access to a highly rated QB, unless someone trades above them.

My best guess for 2023: C.J. Stroud

New Orleans Saints

If the Saints want one of the top passers in the 2023 draft they’ll need to trade up. The organization loves to deal on draft day, but I think this might be a situation where they take a big swing on someone with mammoth upside like Anthony Richardson, and then stay pat in 2023 for one more year.

My best guess for 2023: Jameis Winston

Washington Commanders

This team is in a weird spot. They are in major need of a QB upgrade, but will be drafting too low to get a top passer. It’s just not a good year to look to the draft for them, but an incremental upgrade is out there over the horrific QB room the Commanders have right now.

My best guess for 2023: Derek Carr

Need a QB upgrade, but don’t force it

New England Patriots

Mac Jones is not great. I don’t think this is a hot take. From the second he was drafted any expectation for “greatness” was forced, as Jones was always destined to be a high floor, low ceiling player. That said, I do think he’s far better than Jones has been allowed to show in 2022. Matt Patricia is killing him, and I think some changes to the offensive braintrust can turn him into a decent player with some more weapons around him.

My best guess for 2023: Mac Jones

Detroit Lions

If the Lions were still drafting in the top 5, as they were trending for much of the season — then I’d say swing for a QB. Instead, Jared Goff has played well enough to earn at least one more season, maybe more. This team is still establishing its identity and has a lot of needs that are more pressing that quarterback.

My best guess for 2023: Jared Goff

Carolina Panthers

It’s really weird not to say the Panthers have a five alarm fire at QB, but the truth is that they’ve played themselves out of a top passer at this point. There is still a chance they lose the final two and land near the top of the draft, which makes Stroud or Levis a possibility — but, wild as it sounds, Sam Darnold has played well enough to get a new contract. No, not a huge new deal to be the long-term starter, but a pivot that can carry them through 2023 while the front office assesses the situation.

My best guess for 2023: Sam Darnold

New York Giants

There’s a common thread these teams have where the current guy isn’t good — but he’s better than other options available. Like Goff (and to a lesser extent Darnold), Daniel Jones has done enough to keep the status quo in 2023 unless a crazy offer comes along.

My best guess for 2023: Daniel Jones

Could need a QB depending on outside forces

Green Bay Packers

Is Aaron Rodgers going to come back and do this again? I don’t think anybody has any idea. This is just a situation to watch because there is a chance he hangs it up and the Packers move on, especially as unpredictable as Rodgers tends to be.

My best guess for 2023: Aaron Rodgers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady shouldn’t have come back and done this. He’s been fine, but this is a sad, unremarkable end for the GOAT. This is time to walk away, but it’s up to Tom whether he sees that or not. If Brady hangs it up I could see Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask having a QB battle in camp while the team regroups and plans its next move.

My best guess for 2023: Kyle Trask

Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford got his ring, and he’s putting any retirement talk to rest — but we’ve seen players change their minds after the season ends and they have time to think about making a comeback from injury this late into their careers. Do the Rams have enough in the tank for another run? Maybe, but in the NFC West that’s considerably more difficult.

My best guess for 2023: Matthew Stafford

Miami Dolphins

This is a tough one to talk about, but the discussion has to be raised. Tua Tagovailoa has sustained two confirmed concussions this season, and one more that we all know happened — but the Dolphins aren’t owning up to it. This is a very scary situation and he could definitely keep playing, but I also see a chance he makes the smart move for his future and walks away from football.

My best guess for 2023: Tua Tagovailoa

Denver Broncos

Can the Broncos admit they made the biggest mistake in recent history at QB? Nope. They’re going to keep forcing this as far as it goes, because they spent too much money to walk away from Russ at this point. Still, there’s a very slight possibility something leads to a change.

My best guess for 2023: Russell Wilson

Baltimore Ravens

Is Lamar Jackson okay with how he’s been treated? The Ravens didn’t extend his contract, or negotiate in good faith this season — then they got their franchise QB injured. There’s a chance Jackson isn’t willing to talk about an extension anymore, but in the end I think both sides reconcile their differences and get a deal done.

My best guess for 2023: Lamar Jackson

The wild card …

San Francisco 49ers

The Niners are in a really weird spot where they’re needing to sift through having too many quarterbacks. This team was committed to Trey Lance before the season began, and now Brock Purdy is playing too well to ignore. It’s going to be a wild inside the organization, especially in Purdy leads them to a deep playoff run.

Will the Niners go back to Lance, a player they believed in enough to trade up for him? Will they try and deal Lance to a QB needy team? Will they name Lance starter and get a huge offer for Purdy?

I have no idea what the 49ers will do at QB, and right now I’m not sure they do either. However, whatever the team decides at QB will have a domino effect on the other teams in this list.

My best guess for 2023: I have absolutely no idea