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Tracking how each team can advance to the knockout round of the Women’s World Cup
Group play is winding down at the 2022 FIFA World Cup, and as it does, the scenarios for the knockout round are coming into focus.
Here is what needs to happen for teams to advance to the round of 16.
Group A
Here are the current standings in Group A:
Group A is the first group to have each nation complete a pair of matches, so we can start working through their advancement scenarios now.
Norway has the toughest road ahead of them. To advance a few things will need to go their way. First they will need to beat the Philippines in their final match, which would put them on 4 points. A win by Switzerland would get Norway through.
There is a scenario where Norway can advance with a win if Switzerland and New Zealand play to a draw. That would be enough to put Switzerland through, and would have both New Zealand and Norway on 4 points.
The next tiebreaker is goal differential. At the moment New Zealand has the advantage with their 0, compared to Norway’s -1. But a draw between New Zealand and Switzerland would keep that at 0, and if Norway beats the Philippines by at least two goals, that would be enough to improve Norway’s goal differential to +1, giving them the tiebreaker.
For the Philippines, they advance with a win over Norway coupled with a Switzerland win, or a draw between Switzerland and New Zealand. A draw with Norway would put the Philippines on four points, and they can still advance with a Switzerland win. A draw coupled with a New Zealand win would likely see the Philippines eliminated, as New Zealand would be through with six points and the Philippines would be level with Switzerland with four points each. Then it would come down to the goal differential tiebreaker, and Switzerland currently has the advantage.
There is a scenario where the Philippines advance with a loss, but that would require New Zealand to lose by such a margin that their goal differential would drop below that of the Philippines.
Have a headache yet? I do.
Moving to the next match, for Switzerland things are fairly easy. A win over New Zealand and they are in, having won the group with seven points. A draw with New Zealand and they are in, and may still win the group depending on the outcome of the other match. Even if they lose, Switzerland can still advance provided Norway wins, and Switzerland wins the tiebreaker with Norway on goal differential.
As for New Zealand, a win over Switzerland gets them to six points, and puts them in. In this scenario they would win the group if Norway wins, if Norway-Philippines ends in a draw, or the Philippines wins, but New Zealand wins the tiebreaker.
New Zealand can advance with a draw, but it is tricky. A draw would put New Zealand on 4 points with a goal differential of 0. A win by Norway would put the Norwegians on 4 points as well, and the first tiebreaker is goal differential. If Norway wins by one goal over the Philippines, both teams would have a goal differential of 0, and the next tiebreaker is total goals scored.
At the moment, Norway has yet to score, and New Zealand has one goal to their credit.
So … a 0-0 draw between Switzerland and New Zealand, coupled with a 1-0 win for Norway, makes that a tie as well. That’s when red and yellow cards come into play.
Hopefully it does not come to that.
The other scenario is a draw in both games. Switzerland would win the group with five points, while New Zealand and the Philippines would be tied with four each. New Zealand would advance on goal differential.
A New Zealand draw, coupled with a win by the Philippines, would see New Zealand eliminated.
Group A concludes play on Sunday July 30, with Norway taking on the Philippines and Switzerland playing New Zealand. Both games kickoff at 3:00 a.m. ET.
Group B
Here are the current standings in Group B:
Scenarios for Group B will be updated when each nation has played two matches.
Group C
Here are the current standings in Group C:
Japan and Spain are the first two teams to qualify for the knockout round, thanks to their wins on Wednesday. Japan defeated Costa Rica 2-0, while Spain defeated Zambia 5-0.
All that is left to decide in Group C is which team wins the group. Spain and Japan square off on Monday, July 31. The winner of the match will win the group, and take on the second-place finisher from Group A in the knockout round. The loser of the match will finish second in Group C, and take on the winner of Group A in the knockout round.
Should Monday’s match end in a draw, Spain will win the group due to goal differential.
Group C concludes play on Monday, July 31. Japan plays Spain and Costa Rica plays Zambia, with both matches starting at 3:00 a.m. ET.
Group D
Here are the current standings in Group D:
Scenarios for Group D will be updated when each nation has played two matches.
Group E
Here are the current standings in Group E:
Scenarios for Group E will be updated once each nation has played two matches.
Group F
Here are the current standings in Group F:
Scenarios for Group F will be updated once each nation has played two matches.
Group G
Here are the current standings in Group G:
Scenarios for Group G will be updated once each nation has played two matches.
Group H
Here are the current standings in Group H:
Scenarios for Group H will be updated once each nation has played two matches.
