World Cup advancement tracker: How each team can qualify for the knockout round

Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports

Tracking how each team can advance to the knockout round of the World Cup

Group play is winding down at the 2022 FIFA World Cup, and as it does, the scenarios for the knockout round are coming into focus.

Here is what needs to happen for teams to advance to the round of 16.

Group A

Here are the current standings in Group A:

Qatar became the first host team eliminated from the knockout round after opening the World Cup with a pair of losses.

Netherlands qualifies with a win or a draw against Qatar, while Ecuador also qualifies for the knockout with a win or a draw in their final match of group play, against Senegal.

Senegal can still advance, but they can only advance with a victory over Ecuador. Any other result, including a draw, will see Senegal eliminated.

Group A concludes play on Tuesday, with Ecuador squaring off with Senegal, and Netherlands taking on Qatar. Both games kickoff at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Group B

Here are the current standings in Group B:

As noted earlier this weekend, the United States can still advance, after a pair of draws, but they must beat Iran on Tuesday. A draw or a loss sees the United States eliminated.

England will advance with a win or a draw against Wales in their final match of group play. There is also a scenario where England could advance with a loss. For example, if they were to lose 1-0 to Wales, and the United States were to beat Iran, both England and Wales would have four points. England, however, would advance as their goal differential would give them the tiebreaker over Wales.

Iran qualifies for the knockout round with a victory over the United States. If that match ends in a draw, then they would need some help to advance. If Iran draws with the United States, and Wales beats England, then England, Iran, and Wales would all have four points, and it would come down to tiebreakers. England, however, would likely advance in this scenario, given their current goal differential of +4.

Iran would also qualify with a draw with the United States, and a Wales loss to England, or a Wales draw with England.

Wales need the most help out of all the teams in Group B. They first must beat England, which would get them to four points. Any other result and Wales are eliminated. Then it would come down to tiebreakers, depending on the result of the match between the United States and Iran. If that match ends in a draw, then Wales would need to have a better goal differential than Iran to qualify. Both teams currently have a goal differential of -2, so a Wales victory combined with a draw between the United States and Iran could be enough to give Wales the edge.

Group B concludes action on Tuesday, with England squaring off with Wales and the United States taking on Iran. Both matches kickoff at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Group C

Here are the current standings in Group C:

Things get a little complicated here in Group C.

Poland advances with a win or a tie against Argentina in their final match of group play. If they lose, they can still advance, depending on the result between Saudi Arabia and Mexico. If Poland loses to Argentina, and the match between Saudi Arabia and Mexico ends in a draw, then both Poland and Saudi Arabia would have four points, and it would come to the goal differential between the two teams. If Poland loses to Argentina, and Mexico wins, then both Poland and Mexico would have four points, and it would come down to the goal differential between the two teams. If, somehow, goal differential could not determine which team advances, the next tiebreaker is goals scored.

Argentina qualifies for the knockout round with a win over Poland, but they would be eliminated with a loss. If the match between Argentina and Poland ends in a draw, then the result of the match between Mexico and Saudi Arabia is a factor. If Saudi Arabia beats Mexico, then Argentina would be eliminated with a draw against Poland. But if that match ends in a draw, or a Mexico win, a tie for Argentina against Poland would see qualification come down to tiebreakers. For example, a draw between Poland and Argentina, followed by a 1-0 win for Mexico, would see Argentina advance with the better goal differential. But if both matches end level, then Argentina would advance over Saudi Arabia, thanks to their better goal differential.

Saudi Arabia qualifies for the knockout round with a win over Mexico, and a loss would see their World Cup end. They can advance with a draw, depending on the outcome of the match between Argentina and Poland. If Saudi Arabia and Mexico finish level, then Saudi Arabia still qualifies if Poland beats Argentina. However, a draw between Saudi Arabia and Mexico, and a draw between Argentina and Poland, would see Saudi Arabia eliminated.

For Mexico, they first must beat Saudi Arabia. A loss or a draw will see Mexico eliminated. If both Mexico and Poland win, then Mexico qualifies. If Mexico wins, and the match between Poland and Argentina ends in a tie, then Mexico’s qualification comes down to goal differential between Mexico and Argentina. If Mexico wins, and Argentina wins, then Mexico’s qualification comes down to goal differential between Mexico and Poland.

With a goal differential of -2 right now, Mexico has some work to do if it comes down to tiebreakers.

Group C action concludes Wednesday, with both matches kicking off at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Group D

Here are the current standings in Group D:

France has qualified for the knockout round thanks to victories over Australia and Denmark.

Australia can still advance to the knockout round with a win over Denmark in their final match of group play. They would be eliminated with a loss. If Australia and Denmark finish level, then Australia advance to the knockout round provided the match between France and Tunisia ends in a draw, or with a French victory. If Australia and Denmark draw, and Tunisia beats France, it would come down to tiebreakers between Australia and Tunisia.

Denmark advances if they beat Australia, and the match between France and Tunisia ends in either a French victory, or a draw. If Denmark wins, and Tunisia wins, both teams would be on four points, and it would come down to tiebreakers. With the first tiebreaker being goal differential — and both teams sitting at -1 right now — the final scores in those matches will be something to watch.

For Tunisia to advance, they must first beat France. Then, they will need some help. Even if they beat France, a win for Australia would see Australia through to the second round, and Tunisia eliminated. If Tunisia wins, and the other match ends in a draw, it would come down to tiebreakers between Tunisia and Australia. If Tunisia wins, and Denmark wins, it would come down to tiebreakers between Tunisia and Denmark.

Group D concludes group play on Wednesday, with both matches kicking off at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Group E

Here are the current standings in Group E:

Scenarios for Group E will be updated after each team plays its second match of group play. Group E is in action on Sunday, with Japan and Costa Rica kicking off at 5:00 a.m. ET, and Germany taking on Spain at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Group F

Here are the current standings in Group F:

Sunday’s matches shook the table in Group F.

Canada’s loss to Croatia saw the Canadians eliminated from the knockout round.

Belgium had a chance to qualify for the round of 16 with a win over Morocco, but Morocco’s stunning victory puts Morocco in good position to advance. Belgium now sit third in Group F, and need a victory over Croatia in their third match of group play to advance. With a win, they would qualify for the knockout round. A draw between Belgium and Croatia could still see Belgium advance, provided the match between Canada and Morocco ends in a Canada win, and Belgium somehow wins the ensuing tiebreaker with Morocco.

Croatia qualifies for the knockout round with a win or a draw against Belgium. They can still advance with a loss to Belgium, if Canada beats Morocco. It would then come down to tiebreakers between Croatia and Morocco for the second spot out of Group F.

Morocco qualifies for the knockout round with a win or a draw against Canada. They can still advance with a loss to Canada, depending on the result between Belgium and Croatia. If Morocco loses to Canada, and Croatia wins against Belgium, Morocco would advance with a loss. If Morocco loses to Canada, and Belgium wins against Croatia, then the runner-up spot would come down to Morocco and Croatia, and tiebreakers.

Group F play concludes on Thursday, with both matches kicking off at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Group G

Here are the current standings in Group G:

Scenarios for Group G will be updated after each team plays its second match of group play. Group G is in action on Monday, with Cameroon taking on Serbia at 5:00 a.m. ET, and Brazil facing off with Switzerland at 11:00 a.m. ET.

Group H

Here are the current standings in Group H:

Portugal qualifies with a win over Uruguay in their second match. Ghana is eliminated with a loss to South Korea in their second match.

Scenarios for Group H will be updated after each team plays its second match of group play. Group H is in action on Monday, with South Korea taking on Ghana at 8:00 a.m. ET, and Portugal tussling with Uruguay at 2:00 p.m. ET.