X-Factors on offense for the AFC and NFC Championships

Offensive secret superstars for the Eagles, Commanders, Bills and Chiefs

Conference championship games are played in rarefied (and sometimes thin) air. The stakes are obviously higher, individual plays mean more, and the game script can veer in highly unpredictable ways that can decide things pretty quickly.

For the four teams left in the 2024 season as we turn our attention to the NFC and AFC Championship games, it’s also about maximizing the efforts of the most important players on both sides of the ball. Some key players are key players because of position, some because of talent, and some because of specific scenarios that may require them to play the games of their lives if their teams are to meet their goals of a Super Bowl appearance.

Given the importance of these X-Factors, we’ve expanded the discussion to include one player from each team on both offense and defense. Here’s one offensive X-Factor for each of the four teams that will face off on Sunday for the honor of participating in Super Bowl LIX.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 26, at 3:00 p.m. EST

Philadelphia Eagles: TE Dallas Goedert

The Eagles keep winning primarily because Saquon Barkley is Thanos, and because Vic Fangio’s defense is one of the NFL’s best. That’s great and all, but anybody who doesn’t see the issues with Philly’s passing game is looking at the thing through green-colored glasses.

This season, Jalen Hurts has completed 276 of 402 passes for 3,162 yards, 20 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 103.5, which is a career high. Add in Hurts’ 163 carries for 736 yards and 15 touchdowns, and it would seem that all is well. But the tape tells a different story. Hurts has had issues reading route progressions downfield this season, which has always been an issue, but things seem to have decelerated in that regard. Hurts is being used as more of a “game manager” in a pejorative sense. He’s thrown for less than 200 yards in eight full games this season, and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is asked week after week what’s wrong with the non-Saquon parts of the thing.

Now, the Eagles are in position to advance to the Super Bowl if they can outduel Jayden Daniels, who threw five touchdown passes when these two teams last met in Week 16. That was a 36-33 win in Washington’s favor in which Hurts left the game with a concussion. Throughout this series of explosive passing games, the one target Hurts has seemed to rely on the most is tight end Dallas Goedert, which makes Goedert crucial to said advancement.

“He has a knack for making plays in big moments, that’s for sure,” head coach Nick Sirianni said of Goedert on Monday. “And he makes these really big splash plays, too, where sometimes they’re not even a lot of yards, but it’s so energetic. The physicality that he brings to it is huge.

“He ran a route on that 30-plus gain [in Philly’s Divisional Round win over the Los Angeles Rams]. We had great protection on the play. Jalen put a good throw on him. But Dallas did such a good job of getting open on that route against man coverage. It was a really great route, just a defined route. Just got into it, stuck the defensive back the opposite way, put a seed of doubt in his mind, and then continued on.”

That was a 31-yard catch with 6:21 in the third quarter. It was a 13-13 tie at that point. The Rams were in Cover-1, and Goedert took safety Quentin Lake upfield on the dig route. Goedert maintained his route, Lake fell down, and that was that.

Goedert has also proven to be quite interested in giving out as much aggro to defenders as he gets.

Keeping Hurts in rhythm and out of trouble from a pressure perspective will be Job 1 for Moore and his staff, and as Goedert has been Hurts’ security blanket, expect a big day there – or, at the very least, a lot of targets.

Washington Commanders: RG Trent Scott

Speaking of Jayden Daniels and pressure, there’s the small matter of Commanders right guard Sam Cosmi and the torn ACL he suffered in Washigton’s Divisional win over the Detroit Lions. It’s a big hit because Cosmi is Washington’s best offensive lineman. It’s potentially a bigger hit because of what Eagles super-tackle Jalen Carter did to the Rams’ offensive line, and especially what he did to right guard Kevin Dotson, a good player in his own right. Carter had two sacks and eight total pressures in the game, and those stats don’t tell the true story of the carnage Carter left behind.

After Cosmi was hurt, the Commanders replaced him with Trent Scott, a journeyman offensive lineman who’s been with four different teams and has played multiple positions as a role player and backup throughout his seven-year career. Scott didn’t allow a pressure of any kind against Detroit’s blitz-happy defense in 19 pass-blocking reps, and overall, he held up well. Scott isn’t a dominant blocker, but he knows enough to deal with stunts and games, he can pull with power, and he understands leverage well enough to put some interior pass-rushers on their heels from time to time.

Of course, Jalen Carter is not just some interior pass-rusher, and you can bet that Vic Fangio will put Carter on the new kid early and often.

“We do rotate him some inside and sometimes it’s even on the show team if a player needs other reps,” Commanders head coach Dan Quinn said this week when asked how many reps Scott had at right guard in practice in preparation for the Lions. “Because at this time of the year, the reps are valuable, you know this. So, they’re not as many as you have during the early part of the season. So, for him, sometimes that’s in a walkthrough, might just be on the carded spot, but he has the experience on both sides. It’s both tackles and so he really nailed it. And he was also the one that had to work on communication for the cadence. So, he didn’t have a lot of work at that, so he really stepped into a significant role. And I love when those moments happen.”

Daniels has been great under pressure this season, but there are different kinds of pressure, and when you’re facing a game-wrecker like Carter, those protection sets will be of crucial importance.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 26, at 6:30 p.m. EST

Kansas City Chiefs: RB Kareem Hunt

Under first-year full-time offensive coordinator Joe Brady, the Bills have put together a multiple and diverse run game they didn’t have before. Between James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson, and what Josh Allen can do as a runner, that’s a part of Buffalo’s offense that can bleed the clock, beat defenses down, and control the game. The Kansas City Chiefs are well aware of this. In the Bills’ 30-21 Week 11 win over the Chiefs, Cook scored two rushing touchdowns, and Allen added one of his own. The difference was all the difference.

On the Chiefs’ side, it could be said that Andy Reid and company are looking for their rushing identity this season. Injuries have prevented Isiah Pacheco from capitalizing on his first two NFL seasons, and without Kareem Hunt, one might wonder what kind of run game the Chiefs would have at all. Kansas City signed Hunt to a one-year, $1.21 million contract this offseason after Hunt had spent his previous five seasons with the Cleveland Browns. Of course, this was a reunion for the Chiefs and Hunt, who Kansas City released in Nov. 2018 after video surfaced of Hunt pushing a woman to the ground and kicking her.

However the two parties got here, Hunt has been a key part of the Chiefs offense. He has 772 yards and eight touchdowns on 208 carries, and all of those totals lead the team by a wide margin. In that Bills game, Hunt ran 14 times for 60 yards, and while he had just one explosive run (a 17-yarder with 11:44 left in the fourth quarter), he repeatedly set things up with productive gains on first downs.

“We like to give him the ball whatever way we can get him the ball, because he’s a good player,” Reid said of Hunt in the lead-up to that first Bills game. “He’s doing well for just coming off the couch. He’s doing a heck of a job, and he wants more.”

If he wants more in the AFC Championship game, it would be wise to lean on that. Hunt is coming off an eight-carry, 44-yard, one-touchdown rushing game against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, and now is the time to shoot your best shots.

Buffalo Bills: WR Khalil Shakir

As clearly defined as the Bills’ run game is, the passing game is a bit more nebulous. Josh Allen doesn’t really have an alpha dog receiver to throw to; it’s more of an interesting combination of guys who present specific attributes for specific situations. If there’s one receiver who defines it more than any other, it’s Khalil Shakir, the 2022 fifth-round pick out of Boise State who has seen his role grow more and more over time. This season, Shakir has led the Bills with 88 catches on 108 targets for 949 yards, and he also has four touchdowns to add to his resume.

While the 6’, 190-pound Shakir is primarily a slot receiver, it would be unwise to typecast him in any way. In Buffalo’s Divisional Round win over the Baltimore Ravens, he proved able to not only bag an explosive play on a seam route for 34 yards…

…but also to block the heck out of one of the NFL’s best defensive players on Ray Davis’ 1-yard touchdown run with 4:46 left in the first quarter.

Josh Allen targeted Shakir 11 times against the Chiefs in Week 11, which marked Shakir’s season-high. It would behoove the Bills to draw up a similar plan on Sunday.