Let the bracket reactions begin.
We have a bracket, and now we have three days to talk about it. Let’s start immediately.
Here are 10 immediate thoughts on this year’s field of 68:
1. The SEC was valued even more highly than we thought
There was little doubt that Sunday was going to be the day the SEC was going to set a new record for the most teams from a single conference in the same NCAA tournament. That happened in a major way, with a whopping 14 of the league’s 16 teams hearing their name called.
Texas was something of a surprise inclusion, and wasn’t even close to being the last team in the field. The Longhorns were seeded higher than three other at-large teams, meaning they were actually just one spot away from avoiding Dayton and the First Four entirely.
The other three teams that were considered to be on or at least near the bubble, made the field even more comfortably. Vanderbilt and Arkansas were safely clear of Dayton as 10-seeds, while Oklahoma earned a 9.
The top of the league dominated the top three lines of the field, but that was to be expected.
2. Some of the sport’s biggest names in the sport are headed to Providence
How about this for a quadrant: Rick Pitino and St. John’s, Bill Self and Kansas, and John Calipari and Arkansas. Chris Crutchfield and Omaha will be there too, and their trashcan tradition is pretty cool, so there’s that.
The other two games played in Providence — which are Midwest Region contests — have the potential to be two of the first round’s more entertaining tilts. Matt Painter and reigning national runner-up Purdue will face High Point and one of the nation’s best offenses in one game, while Clemson — which made a regional final for the first time in program history last year — will square off against Will Wade (soon to be power conference head coach again Will Wade) and his mighty McNeese squad in what will assuredly be a trendy 12/5 upset pick.
The fireworks inside Amica Mutal Pavilion figure to be abundant.
3. West Virginia made the most brutal kind of history
All 111 of the Bracketologists tracked on BracketMatrix.com had West Virginia in the field of 68, making the Mountaineers the first unanimous selection in the history of the site to be excluded from the Big Dance. Just 50 Bracketologists had Texas in the tournament, and only 27 had North Carolina making the cut.
Committee chair Bubba Cunningham said the Mountaineers were dinged for not having star Tucker DeVries, who was declared out for the season in early February because of a shoulder injury. That seems a little strange and unfair considering DeVries played just the first eight games of the season for WVU, and the team was still able to amass a 10-10 Big 12 record that included wins over Kansas and Iowa State without him.
4. There was some extreme inconsistency on the ACC
In the first five seconds of the bracket reveal, we learned that Auburn, and not Duke, was tournament’s No. 1 overall seed. About 15 seconds after that, we learned that Louisville, which finished second in the ACC regular season and tournament and which was projected by nearly everyone to be a 5 or 6-seed, was relegated to 8-seed status.
Immediately, just about everyone who follows college basketball tweeted something along the lines of “well, this seems like the end for North Carolina.” So naturally, less than a minute later, we found out that the Tar Heels — who lost seven ACC games and went 1-12 in Quadrant-I opportunities — had somehow made the field.
Adding to the inconsistency was that Clemson, which had nearly identical metrics to Louisville and lost to the Cardinals in both their meetings — were seeded a full three lines higher at No. 5.
Sometimes there’s simply no rhyme or reason to these things.
5. The Midwest Region could be the chaos region
Everyone seems to be predicting that this is going to be the “chalkiest tournament since 2015,” or something along those lines.
While the top two seed lines seem to be especially dominant this year, here’s a friendly reminder: Every single Final Four but one since 2012 has featured at least one team seeded No. 7 or worse. Since 2011, a total of 13 teams seeded seventh or worse have crashed the season’s final weekend, including 11th-seeded NC State last year.
If there’s another one this year, don’t be surprised if it comes out of this region.
Top-seeded Houston has been rock solid once again all season, but is (also once again heading into the tournament) dealing with an injury to a key player in J’Wan Roberts. Second-seeded Tennessee has famously never beaten a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, and is widely considered to be the best program in college basketball without a single Final Four appearance. Third-seeded Kentucky has made a recent habit of taking shocking losses in the first round. Sure, that was under John Calipari, but new head coach Mark Pope has won a grand total of zero games in the Big Dance and has twice been beaten in the first round as a top six seed.
Toss in Gonzaga as the 8-seed despite being No. 9 overall on Ken Pom as well as a pair of extremely dangerous double-digit seeds in McNeese and High Point, and don’t be surprised if things get weird here.
6. Seriously, North Carolina?
Allow me to be the millionth person today to point out how little sense this makes.
North Carolina lost seven games in a dreadful ACC, went a combined 0-5 against the other at-large teams from the conference, and went 1-12 in Quadrant-I games overall. They were also the only team East of the Mississippi that Stanford beat on their home floor this season, good for a Quadrant-III loss.
There’s simply no reason — outside of brand recognition or a TV ratings boost for TruTV or, perhaps, their athletic director being the chairman for the Selection Committee — for the Tar Heels to be in this tournament.
7. They’ll probably still win multiple games in this tournament
You know what other team had absolutely zero business making an NCAA tournament? The 2010-11 VCU Rams. They promptly shut everyone up by going from the First Four to the Final Four.
Since then, there’s been a trend among the final at-large teams in the field.
Since the inception of the First Four in 2011, a team coming out of Dayton has won at least one game in the tournament’s “main draw” in every year but one. The only time it didn’t happen was in 2019. That’s fairly remarkable considering we’re talking about just two 11 or 12 seeds every single year having the opportunity to make this happen.
Overall, the First Four has produced a total of 22 victories in the “main draw” of the tournament, five Sweet 16 squads, and two Final Four teams, the most recent being UCLA three seasons ago.
North Carolina has underachieved dramatically this season. That doesn’t mean they’re lacking in talent. R.J. Davis is a former ACC Player of the Year who has showcased an ability to play March hero before, Ian Jackson is an NBA guy, and Eliot Cadeau was unbelievable down the stretch against Duke in the ACC tournament semifinals.
Unqualified doesn’t mean incapable.
8. The 12/5 upset trend could continue in a big way
In 33 of the last 39 years, at least one 12 seed has advanced out of the first round of the tournament. Over the last 16 years, 12 seeds actually own a highly respectable overall record of 27-37 against five seeds, including a 2-2 mark last season.
This year’s 12-seed line is stacked.
UC San Diego is a top 40 team in virtually every metric and has a game against a Michigan team that, despite its run to the Big 10 tournament title, has been winning close all season. McNeese has lost once since mid-December and has maybe the most sought-after head coach in the sport. Mountain West champ Colorado State has won 10 straight and hasn’t won a game by fewer than eight points over that stretch. Liberty beat both McNeese and Kansas State on a neutral court back in November and also won a 12/5 game under head coach Ritchie McKay back in 2019.
At least one of these teams is winning this week.
9. BYU-VCU feels like the best game of the first round
BYU has scored 90 or more points in half of its last eight games, and has a pair of the most fun players in the tournament in Richie Saunders and Egor Demin. When the Cougars are on, there might not be a more entertaining team in the country.
On the other side, there’s all sort of buzz that VCU’s Ryan Odom could be out the door for a power conference job after the Rams’ run in the dance comes to an end. That has the potential to be a bit longer than those interested schools would like. The A-10 champs have lost just once since the start of February, and should have been an at-large selection even if they hadn’t taken care of business in their league tournament.
10. Gonzaga extending its Sweet 16 is going to be tough
There was no bigger paradox this season than the Zags, who had the resume of an 8/9 team but the computer metrics of a top 2-seed. The common thought was that the Committee might split the difference and slot Gonzaga on the six or seven line to avoid giving a No. 1 seed a second round matchup against a team that ranks in the top 10 on KenPom and in the NET.
That didn’t happen, and now the Zags are set to face Georgia in an 8/9 contest on Thursday. Houston is the lucky 1-seed likely awaiting the winner on Saturday.
The seeding provided a significant hit to Gonzaga’s chances of setting a new record for most consecutive Sweet 16 appearances. The Bulldogs have been to the second weekend nine years in a row, tied with Duke (1998-2006) and North Carolina (1985-1993) for the longest such streaks ever.
