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The expectations are high for the Texans, but there are reasons to be optimistic about the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans.
The AFC South features some of the youngest quarterbacks in the league this season. 22-year-old C.J. Stroud is looking to advance farther in the playoffs after winning Offensive Rookie of the Year and the AFC South title last year; 24-year-old Trevor Lawrence is looking to fulfill his potential after being drafted first overall in 2021 and signing a huge contract extension this offseason; 22-year-old Anthony Richardson is looking to prove his jaw-dropping abilities can be sustained across a 17-game schedule; and 25-year-old Will Levis is looking to show that the investments his team has made around him will pay off.
Here’s more information on each AFC South team entering the 2024-25 NFL season.
2023 record: 10-7 (won in Wild Card round, lost in Divisional Round)
2023 offense: 13th in points per game | 14th in DVOA
2023 defense: 11th in points per game allowed | 16th in DVOA
Subtractions: DE Jonathan Greenard, DT Sheldon Rankins, DT Maliek Collins, LB Blake Cashman, RB Devin Singletary, CB Steven Nelson, DE Jerry Hughes, LT George Fant, LB Denzel Perryman, DT Teair Tart
Additions: DE Danielle Hunter, WR Stefon Diggs, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, DE Denico Autry, RB Joe Mixon, DL Foley Fatukasi, CB Jeff Okudah, DT Tim Settle, CB Kamari Lassiter, OT Blake Fisher, S Calen Bullock, TE Cade Stover, LB Jamal Hill, RB Jawhar Jordan, DE Solomon Byrd, DT Marcus Harris, OG LaDarius Henderson
Reasons for optimism
C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans are the hottest quarterback/coach pairing around right now, and each side of the ball received a significant veteran boost this offseason in Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter. If the offensive line can stay healthier and the secondary can play more cohesively, the Texans won’t just repeat as division champs — they’ll be threatening as true contenders to win Super Bowl LIX.
Reasons for pessimism
According to Sharp Football Analysis, Houston has the toughest schedule in the NFL relative to last season. They faced the sixth-easiest schedule in 2023 and are projected to face the seventh-hardest schedule in 2024. Though Stroud torched the league-leading Browns defense in the playoffs last year, he struggled against the Jets and the Ravens in the regular season. The Texans also finished 7-3 in one-score games (which typically regresses to .500). Tougher opponents may lead to a worse record in 2024, even if the roster has improved.
2023 record: 9-8
2023 offense: 11th in points per game | 13th in DVOA
2023 defense: 28th in points per game allowed | 20th in DVOA
Subtractions: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Zack Moss, WR Isaiah McKenzie, DE Jacob Martin
Additions: DT Raekwon Davis, QB Joe Flacco, DE Laiatu Latu, WR Adonai Mitchell, OT Matt Goncalves, OC Tanor Bortolini, WR Anthony Gould, S Jaylon Carlies, S Jaylin Simpson, CB Micah Abraham, DT Jonah Laulu
Reasons for optimism
If the Colts had a winning record with Gardner Minshew as the primary starter last year, they’re a lock to make the playoffs with 2023 fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson, right? Even if you aren’t sold on Richardson, who missed 13 games with a shoulder injury as a rookie, Indianapolis appears to be in good hands under coach Shane Steichen. He’s mastered the art of play sequencing and helped the offensive line take a huge leap forward. If Richardson and Jonathan Taylor can stay on the field — they played one (1) snap together in 2023 — the Colts offense could be among the best in the league.
Reasons for pessimism
The other side of the ball is where worries lie. Gus Bradley’s defense fields a talented front seven, but the secondary’s inexperience is a red flag, as is Bradley’s scheme. He coaches a sound albeit predictable system that top offenses can exploit. There’s also the chronic concern that general manager Chris Ballard hasn’t been aggressive enough in adding top-end talent to the roster, especially with a quarterback playing on his rookie deal.
2023 record: 9-8
2023 offense: 15th in points per game | 18th in DVOA
2023 defense: 16th in points per game allowed | 10th in DVOA
Subtractions: WR Calvin Ridley, CB Darious Williams, S Rayshawn Jenkins, DT Foley Fatukasi, KR Jamal Agnew, K Brandon McManus, CB Tre Herndon, DE Dawuane Smoot, DE K’Lavon Chaisson, WR Zay Jones, DT Angelo Blackson, QB Matt Barkley
Additions: DT Arik Armstead, WR Gabe Davis, S Darnell Savage, C Mitch Morse, KR Devin Duvernay, CB Ronald Darby, QB Mac Jones, TE Josiah Deguara, DE Trevis Gipson, WR Brian Thomas Jr., DT Maason Smith, CB Jarrian Jones, OT Javon Foster, DT Jordan Jefferson, CB Deantre Prince, RB Keilan Robinson, K Cam Little, DE Myles Cole
Reasons for optimism
Jacksonville expects a few key additions to maximize the talent on each side of the ball. First-round rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. won’t have a heavy role right away, but his devastating speed should create space underneath for other playmakers like Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Travis Etienne, and swapping Luke Fortner for Mitch Morse at the pivot should improve the Jaguars’ woeful short-yardage run game. On defense, Ryan Nielsen and his staff are expected to develop talent and produce results with more success than the previous regime; plus, Arik Armstead should provide much-needed juice from the interior.
Reasons for pessimism
Though Morse provides an upgrade, Jacksonville’s offensive line is still in question after the team finished last in rushing success rate and average yards before contact last year. The run game didn’t have much of an identity, and really, neither did the offense as a whole. If offensive coordinator Press Taylor can’t produce a top-10 offense with such a talented skill group, coach Doug Pederson may be on the hot seat for the same reason he was fired from Philadelphia.
2023 record: 6-11
2023 offense: 27th in points per game | 25th in DVOA
2023 defense: 15th in points per game allowed | 18th in DVOA
Subtractions: RB Derrick Henry, QB Ryan Tannehill, DE Denico Autry, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, OC Aaron Brewer, CB Kristian Fulton, WR Chris Moore, S K’Von Wallace, OT Chris Hubbard, DE Trevis Gipson, DT Ross Blacklock
Additions: WR Calvin Ridley, CB L’Jarius Sneed, OC Lloyd Cushenberry, CB Chidobe Awuzie, LB Kenneth Murray, RB Tony Pollard, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, WR Tyler Boyd, QB Mason Rudolph, OT JC Latham, DT T’Vondre Sweat, LB Cedric Gray, CB Jarvis Brownlee, WR Jha’Quan Jackson, S James Williams, DE Jaylen Harrell
Reasons for optimism
The Titans went all-in on the Will Levis experiment by adding Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd and Tony Pollard to an offense that already rostered DeAndre Hopkins, Tyjae Spears and Chigoziem Okonkwo. Plus, center Lloyd Cushenberry was picked up in free agency and tackle JC Latham was drafted in the first round to help the offensive line. The jury is still out on Levis, but the team can at least judge him with confidence going forward, knowing that the surrounding pieces aren’t the issue. Tennessee also acquired L’Jarius Sneed, perhaps the league’s best cornerback in 2023, and hired Dennard Wilson via the Mike Macdonald tree to coordinate the defense.
Reasons for pessimism
Derrick Henry and Mike Vrabel are gone. Those two were the backbone of the organization in recent years, and a smooth transition under new coach Brian Callahan shouldn’t be assumed. Callahan did bring his dad, Bill, a legendary offensive line coach, to Tennessee, but the line — and Levis — are far from finished products. Defensively, the Titans were the NFL’s best red zone defense last season, which will be tough to replicate under new coaching.
