A’ja Wilson is the runaway favorite for WNBA MVP, but here’s who else has a shot

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Let’s take a dive into the numbers — and examine the track record of WNBA stars on lower-seeded teams earning the honors.

A’ja Wilson has been hailed the runaway favorite for MVP and by most accounts, she’ll likely be the unanimous pick. Her individual numbers are better than they’ve ever been, and the national discourse this year has operated under the assumption that no one else really stands a chance.

But, do they?

Let’s take a closer look at the MVP case for A’ja Wilson — and examine if anyone else stacks up. The four other legitimate candidates in the MVP race have been Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Napheesa Collier, and Alyssa Thomas, but it’ll be hard for any of them to surpass what Wilson has done this season.

The (very strong) MVP case for A’ja Wilson

It’s been well-chronicled that A’ja Wilson is having a historic individual season. With a 26.9 point per game average, she is by far the leading scorer in the WNBA (Kahleah Copper is second with 23.1 points). Plus, her efficiency has been through the roof – she’s shooting 52.5% from the field, 40% from three, and 87% from the free throw line. For reference, no other player averaging above 19 points per game is shooting better than 49% from the field.

Then, there’s the defensive side of the ball. Wilson was named Defensive Player of the Year in each of the last two seasons, and she’s continued to individually excel on that end this year. She currently leads the league with 2.7 blocks per game and is third overall in steals, averaging a pair a night. She’s also the second-leading rebounder in the league with 11.9 boards a game. Statistically speaking, her output his WNBA season has been incomparable to any other player.

The Aces’ play is the biggest weakness in Wilson’s MVP case

The Aces are having a disappointing regular season — there’s no other way to put it. Part of their downswing is the inevitable slide that typically comes after winning a championship, a hangover of sorts. There’s a reason only one team has ever achieved a three-peat in WNBA history — the Houston Comets, who won four consecutive championships beginning in 1997, after the league’s inauguration.

As it currently stands, it doesn’t look like the Aces will three-peat. The issue all year long has been the defense. Offensively, they average a league-best 87.8 points per game and shoot 45.2% from the field, good for second overall. Defensively, however, they’ve slid to fifth place, with their defensive rating ranking below that of the Liberty, Sun, Lynx, and Storm. The slide on that end has been puzzling given the fact they’ve largely returned the same Aces roster that had the best defensive rating in the league last year.

As a result, Las Vegas — losers of three of their last four games — currently sits in fifth place in standings with a 17-10 record. They’re not exactly the team you’d want to bet against going into the playoffs, but they’re also not currently playing like true championship contenders. If there’s a knock on Wilson’s MVP candidacy, it’s the fact her team hasn’t been winning at the elite clip we’ve grown accustomed to seeing.

As such, some of her own individual metrics have suffered. Among WNBA starters, Wilson has the 25th-best plus-minus rating (she’s a +4.9 per night, a contrast to someone like Sabrina Ionescu, who is a +10). Plus-minus is far from a foolproof stat, but Wilson had a plus-minus of +12.2 last year, so she’s taken a noticeably dip there. So has her individual defensive statistics — Wilson’s defensive rating is a 99.4, and among players averaging at least 20 minutes per game, that’s 38th overall. In comparison, last year, she had the 10th-best defensive rating in the league.

Should the Aces struggles impact Wilson’s candidacy?

Whether MVP candidates should be able to represent an underachieving team is a question that’s been long been debated in professional sports. In the NBA, there have been some notable instances when it’s happened. For example, Russell Westbrook (2017) and Nikola Jokic (2022) were both named MVP when their respective teams were 6th seeds.

But, if you look at the last decade of WNBA MVP winners, only one has hailed from at team that wasn’t a top-two seed.

2023: Breanna Stewart wins MVP, the Liberty were the #2 seed
2022: A’ja Wilson wins MVP, the Liberty were the #1 seed
2021: Jonquel Jones wins MVP, the Sun were the #1 seed
2020: A’ja Wilson wins MVP, the Aces were #1 seed
2019: Elena Delle Donne wins MVP, the Mystics were the #1 seed
2018: Breanna Stewart wins MVP, the Storm were the #1 seed
2017: Sylvia Fowles wins MVP, the Lynx were the #1 seed
2016: Nneka Ogwumike wins MVP, the Sparks were the #2 seed
2015: Elena Delle Donne wins MVP, the Sky were the #4 seed
2014: Maya Moore wins MVP, the Lynx were the #2 seed

So, if it’s not Wilson who gets the award, it would likely have to be a candidate from a team with a significantly better record. Right now, that’s the Liberty (25-4), Sun (20-7), or Lynx (20-8).

Other MVP candidates in the WNBA

Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty

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Stats: 19.8 points (44.7 FG%, 25.7 3PT%), 8.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.9 steals, 1.4 blocks

The two-time MVP has helped the Liberty to a league-best record, but is having a slightly-below average season (for her career, she’s averaged 20.7 points on 46.9% shooting). She also hasn’t been the clear best Liberty player on the floor all year, so it’d be hard to then deem her the best player in the world.

Sabrina Ionescu, New York Liberty

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Stats: 19.9 points (42.7 FG%, 35.7 3PT%), 6 assists, 4 rebounds

The only real knock on Sabrina Ionescu’s season is that her three-point shooting is down. Last year, she shot 44.8% from three, and this year, that’s down by 9%. Outside of that, she’s averaging a career-high in points, is shooting a career-best from the floor, and has frequently thrived as the go-to option down the stretch for a New York that currently looks to be the clear championship favorites. If Ionescu’s offensive efficiency was a little bit gaudier, she’d likely have a really strong case.

Alyssa Thomas, Connecticut Sun

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Stats: 11.4 points (51.1 FG%), 9.3 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 1.5 steals

Alyssa Thomas’s season hasn’t received nearly as much buzz as her 2023 season, but it probably should. Last year, she led the league in first-place MVP votes, just barely losing the award to Breanna Stewart. This season, she’s second in assists per game and fifth in rebounds per game, and both of those numbers are comparable to last year’s. She has averaged less points per game (11.4 points this year compared to 15.5 points last year) but has done so on better efficiency (51.4% this year compared to 47.4% last year). Still, it’s hard to make a strong MVP case for someone averaging 11 points per game. If the Sun had the best record in the league, it’d be a little easier to argue in favor of Thomas, but right now, they are winners of 6 of their last 10 games.

Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx

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Stats: 20.4 points (48.8 FG%, 33.8 3PT%), 9.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.1 steals, 1.3 blocks

Collier is having the best season of her career, and the Lynx are winning at a clip they’ve never won during her WNBA tenure. She’s up in nearly every statistical category, and has anchored a surprisingly good Minnesota team in both ends of the floor. As it currently stands, she’s probably the non-Wilson player with the highest MVP odds, though her season hasn’t received the national acclaim it probably deserves.

So, do Collier, Ionescu, Stewart or Thomas have an MVP case?

Looking at the numbers, probably not. It would take an Aces free-fall for one of them to edge out Wilson considering what she’s has accomplished this season — and there’s no real reason to think that’ll happen. After all, since point guard Chelsea Gray has returned from injury, the Aces have won 11 of 15 games,

But, if the Aces do end up with the 6th or 7th seed, and a team like Lynx finishes second, someone like Napheesa Collier might warrant a second look. Or, if Ionescu or Stewart go on a tear to close the season, and the Liberty finish as far ahead of the pack as they currently are, one of them might, too. Ultimately, it’ll come down to how the Aces can finish off this season, and whether Wilson’s individual greatness can overcome the team’s overall lackluster play. But with more than a quarter of the season remaining, this race isn’t as over as it may seem.