Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images
The season is already hot.
We’re roughly three weeks into the 2024-25 NHL season and most teams have either played, or are approaching 10 games in the books. From the outside looking in there’s a lot of similarity to last season, but there’s some important trends happening around the league that are worth looking at as we move forward.
It can be dangerous to draw any big conclusions this early in the season, but here’s what we think we know from the NHL based on what we’ve seen so far.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are astonishingly good
On paper the Lightning were always going to be improved this season with the additional Jake Guentzel via free agency, but through nine games the team is trending to be a force.
A case where their 6-3 record hides just how good they are, the Lightning have played the No. 2 ranked hardest schedule in their opening part of the year — and come out of it smelling like roses. Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Cirelli, and Brandon Hagel all have double-digit points so far, with a handful of guys just behind them.
Defensively the Lightning are solid, their goalies have been above-average considering the competition they’ve played, and Tampa already has some notable wins against elite opponents like the Hurricanes, Golden Knights, and Canucks.
There are some things to tighten up like their PK and overall discipline when it comes to allowing Power Plays, but in total coach Jon Cooper has the Lightning already looking like a team who can contend in the east.
Connor Bedard is becoming the player we thought he would
Make no mistake: The Blackhawks are still utterly trash and will be trash this season, but my goodness has Connor Bedard taken a step forward this year already.
With three goals and six assists in 10 games he’s well on pace to best his impressive rookie totals, but the real story behind Bedard’s play comes from his advanced stats — as well as his attitude off the ice.
Bedard has lifted his Corsi and Fenwick significantly this season on both sides of the puck, but particularly on defense where he’s transformed into a more reliable forechecker and willing to fight for the puck in the the tough parts of the ice more. Most-impressively, Bedard’s stats have gone through the moon in 5v5 situations in close games, where he’s lifted his Corsi For from a -10.0 to a +1.2 across his games so far.
What Chicago really wanted from Bedard isn’t just a stellar on-ice player, but someone who could anchor this franchise and reform the culture for the next 10-15 years. Already this season he’s been a vocal leader, who is already advocating that the team makes moves in the trade market to get him some help.
It makes sense considering the Blackhawks’ abysmal offense outside of the 19-year-old, and if the front office gets the help Bedard needs then this team could start to turn things around quickly — especially considering how easily he makes a scorer’s life with his prolific passing.
Rumors of the Hurricanes’ demise were greatly exaggerated
No team was forced to undergo more of an overhaul than the Hurricanes this offseason, who not only whiffed on re-signing Jake Guentzel who was their No. 1 target, but were forced to let Brady Skjei, Brent Pesce, Teuvo Teräväinen, Stefan Noesen, and Michael Bunting to leave via free agency — with Evgeny Kuznetsov choosing to leave the NHL all together and head back to Russia.
At least on paper the stage was set for a massive regression, or at least some very serious retooling by Carolina, but somehow the team looks even better this season in spite of the roster overhaul. The Canes are 6-2 amid their brutal opening road trip to start the season, and players all over the roster are stepping up to fill the void.
Martin Necas is back to his old self, Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov are playing at a high level — and perhaps the biggest surprise has been 21-year-old Jackson Blake, who has four point in his first full season of being called up to the main roster.
The Hurricanes’ heralded defense is still strong despite the loss of Skjei and Pesce, while their forwards are performing at a higher level than at this point last season. It’s combined to make Carolina look like a very real threat in the Metropolitan this year, just like last — and most figured they’d be fighting in 2024-25 to stay relevant.
The Oilers need to hit the panic button
Despite making the Stanley Cup in 2023-24 and seemingly having the table set for another run, everything is going wrong in Edmonton.
The Oilers are off to a horrible 4-5-1 start, and now Connor McDavid is injured. Last year they were the NHL’s most dominant offensive team, but now they’re 30th in goals scored, despite playing a relatively easy schedule that ranks 16th in hockey this year.
Defensively the team is a mess. The goalies are underperforming. When you couple those factors with an offense that can’t score outside of a now-hurt McDavid and Leon Draisaitl it makes for an ugly combo. There’s some serious soul-searching that needs to be done, because as it stands it seems the Oilers are closer to having a Top 5 pick than contending for a cup this year, and their early-season regression has been simply astonishing.
The Rangers are really, really good — but we need to see more
Not so much a surprise here, but New York is good this season. The problem is that this could be built on a house of cards.
Make no mistake: The Rangers are going to be a top-tier team in the East regardless, but there are a few factors which could indicate the hot start is fool’s gold.
The Rangers are 31st in strength of schedule so far
Artemi Panarin likely can’t keep up his astonishing pace
Their schedule has allowed the Rangers to benefit from playing low-scoring teams
There’s absolutely the potential that all of this holds and the Rangers prove themselves to be the best team in the National Hockey League, but their 3-1 loss to the Panther at home (the only real test they’ve faced) could indicate that more players beyond their established stars need to step up.
