The Patriots face the Bills in Buffalo on Sunday. We break down what the game means for the NFL playoff picture.
The Buffalo Bills were the first team to clinch their division this season, but Sunday is their first game against the New England Patriots in 2024. They close out with three games against the teams in the basement of the AFC East.
Buffalo is attempting to secure the one seed in the AFC, but the Kansas City Chiefs just won’t lose games. (Except, of course, games to the Buffalo Bills.) Failing that, they can still ensure two homes games in Orchard Park with a few wins down the stretch.
Buffalo is a heavy favorite today at -14.5 according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Bills playoff picture
The Bills have clinched the AFC East and the corresponding playoff spot. If they win Sunday, nothing changes for them immediately, but they can clinch no worse than the two seed as early as Christmas Day or next Sunday with a second Bills win. That would allow them to rest their starters in Week 18.
If Buffalo loses to the Patriots or the Chiefs win on Christmas, the one seed will be locked up by Kansas City.
Tiebreaker implications
The Bills own the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Chiefs, so this game won’t factor in there.
If Buffalo and Pittsburgh/Houston end up tied, the Bills will have a worse AFC record than the Steelers/Texans after losing to either the Patriots and/or Jets. That’s where this game could come into play.
If the Ravens pass the Steelers in the AFC North, Baltimore owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Buffalo. In a three-way tie scenario with Baltimore, Buffalo, and Houston, conference record would be the first tiebreaker and likely go to the Texans.
That’s why Buffalo needs to put away inferior opponents so they can host at least two playoff games in Western New York.
