Aaron Rodgers’ trade to Jets has 2 ways to succeed, and 2 ways to fail

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Aaron Rodgers is heading to the Jets, but will it work?

The long national nightmare is over.

We know where Aaron Rodgers will be playing quarterback next season.

Weeks of speculation drew to a close on Monday when it was announced that the New York Jets and the Green Bay Packers came to agreement on a trade package involving the four-time NFL MVP.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter was first to announce the trade:

So now instead of wondering whether Rodgers will be playing in Green Bay or somewhere else next year, we can wonder about something else.

Whether this will work.

Here are two reasons why this marriage will be a success, and two reasons why it will fall short of delivering on its promise.

Two reasons this will work

Aaron Rodgers at his worst is still better than the best the Jets had

We’ve become so accustomed to Aaron Rodgers’ greatness that we’re numb to just how good a quarterback he is. A lot is made of his struggles in 2022, which are absolutely fair, but we’re still talking about a guy who in his worst season hovered in the 10-15 range in a majority of statistical areas.

It’s borderline criminal to take a quarterback of his caliber and ask him to have Allen Lazard as a No. 1 target, while developing a rapport with rookie Christian Watson as his second option. It’s a damn miracle this team managed to be dragged to the playoffs, and a lot of that is a credit to Rodgers.

Regardless of his issues last season, Rodgers still managed to throw for 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Sure, that’s a lot of picks for someone who is normally as careful with the ball as No. 12, but when you realize that Zach Wilson, Mike White and Joe Flacco COMBINED for 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions you realize what a colossal upgrade this is for the team.

For an organization who went 7-10 on the back of defense with a functional zero at QB, this is a huge step forward.

The Jets have a better supporting cast than Rodgers has had in YEARS

Rodgers has been begging the Green Bay front office to get him more weapons to no avail. Not only did he have to watch as his receivers slowly faded away, but then had to stand by as Davante Adams was traded to the Raiders, leaving him with a handful of magic beans.

Garrett Wilson was able to pass 1,100 yard receiving last season. Breece Hall is coming back from injury. Corey Davis can still be an effective target. Hell, even Elijah Moore has shown promise. This is a much deeper offensive group than you’d expect at first pass, but there simply hasn’t been a quarterback to allow these guys to truly shine.

You probably have to go back to 2016 when Rodgers had Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams to find a supporting class as good as the one he’ll lead in New York. That should naturally lead to some major gains.

Two reasons this won’t work

Chemistry takes time

Last summer, one of the biggest questions facing Rodgers and the Packers was this: How would he, and the Green Bay passing game, adjust to life without Davante Adams?

Obviously losing Adams would be a blow to any offense, even one with a quarterback as talented as Rodgers. But the main reason those questions were raised dealt with Rodgers, and how he approaches the passing game. Rodgers is a passer that relies on feel, and chemistry, with his receivers. It is why his connection with Adams was so special. Each knew exactly how the other would approach a certain concept, a certain route, a certain coverage.

Feel, and trust, between a quarterback and a receiver is critical to the success of an offense. In his book Art and Magic of Quarterbacking Joe Montana talked at length about the trust between a quarterback and a receiver:

Practice and playing together is the key for a quarterback and his receivers. After a while, you will be able to just feel things. You can tell by the way a receiver runs, for instance, where he is going to break or how sharp he is going to be coming out of it. That’s an edge for you. The last thing you should be doing is taking too long to think about what is happening. Obviously, there is a certain amount of information-processing taking place–but with enough patience, it should become second nature.

That takes time to build, and it is why some wondered how quickly that would be put in place in Green Bay this past season, with Rodgers adjusting to life with new, rookie, receivers.

Eventually, that started to click, as down the stretch he seemed to grow and develop that chemistry with rookie wide receiver Christian Watson in particular.

Now, the Jets have already made some moves that could ease the transition, adding Allen Lazard to their roster. In addition, there are reports that Rodgers provided the Jets with a list of players he wanted the organization to add — a list that Lazard was on — so this could be a nod towards speeding up the chemistry process.

But it takes time, and time may not be a commodity that AFC teams have next year. Which leads us to the next point.

The AFC is very, very good

Certainly there is a long way to go before rosters are finalized. We have the rest of free agency, and of course we have the draft coming up. So things could change.

But perhaps the biggest roadblock in front of Rodgers and the Jets?

The rest of the AFC.

Look around the greater AFC landscape, and you see very quickly that the conference has a number of teams that can compete not just in their respective divisions, but the AFC at large. Just in the East alone, Rodgers will have to navigate Josh Allen and the Bills, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins — both of which were playoff teams a year ago — and Bill Belichick and the Patriots.

Then in the North you have the Bengals, who have made two-straight AFC Championship games, the Browns, an improving Steelers roster that just missed out on the playoffs a season ago, and the Ravens, depending on how things shake out with Lamar Jackson.

The South might have teams like the Titans, Colts, and Texans who are in rebuilding mode — and some could be doing so with rookie quarterbacks — but the Jaguars are coming off a division title of their own and are adding Calvin Ridley this offense.

And you know what looms in the West…

So even if Rodgers and the Jets are good, the bulk of the conference is too. Good might not be good enough in the AFC next year.