Full list of Week 1 straight-up picks with confidence levels

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We make picks for all 16 NFL games with levels of confidence ahead of Week 1.

The NFL is back for the 2024 season, kicking off with the Chiefs hosting the Ravens at Arrowhead Stadium. Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson is a fantastic start to what should be a busy, competitive season.

The start of the season means it’s time to start getting out picks. I’ll be posting straight-up picks every Thursday morning featuring confidence levels. I’ll pick each game’s winner and slot the picks based on confidence levels — high, medium, low, and no. A game with three asterisks (***) after it indicates a game where I’m picking the betting underdog to get the win.

On to Week 1 picks. I’ve got four outright upsets among the underdogs. I suspect this will be the highest number of low confidence picks I have given some of the uncertainty that comes with the start of the season. And for transparency’s sake, I’m a 49ers fan, so every week you should take that pick with a grain of salt.

High confidence

Bengals over Patriots
49ers over Jets

Medium confidence

Eagles over Packers
Dolphins over Jaguars
Saints over Panthers
Bills over Cardinals
Chargers over Raiders
Seahawks over Broncos
Bucs over Commanders
Lions over Rams

Low confidence

Chiefs over Ravens
Titans over Bears***
Falcons over Steelers
Colts over Texans***
Giants over Vikings***
Cowboys over Browns***