Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson expectations should be kept low

Social media celebrity Jake Paul will return to the boxing ring on Friday night to face 58-year-old legend Mike Tyson, a curious event that has plenty of people curious as what it might wind up being once the bell rings.

For those who have no interest in Paul – which includes the vast majority of those who saw Tyson fight in his long-ago prime – the best advice would be to keep expectations on the low side, which could allow for the Netflix-streamed event – no pay-per-view for this one – to provide some entertainment.

To clear up a few things for anyone still wondering:

1. Paul vs Tyson is sanctioned by the commission in Texas. This is not an exhibition like Tyson had in late 2020 against fellow boxing great Roy Jones Jr, as this fight will count on the professional records of Paul, who is 10-1 with seven stoppage wins against an unusual crew of opposition, and Tyson, whose professional record (50-6, 44 KO) hasn’t seen an update since his sad 2005 loss to Kevin McBride.
2. The fight is being contested over eight, two-minute rounds. If you’re not a boxing regular, the normal time limit per round on the men’s side of the sport is three minutes, and eight-round fights are usually reserved for lower levels.
3. Paul and Tyson will be fighting in 14-ounce gloves. Heavyweights typically wear 10-ounce gloves, meaning the two will be wearing what pros would usually deem to be “pillow” gloves.

The glove size and two-minute rounds are concessions to the fact that Tyson is, again, 58 years old, and even more than that, that he hasn’t had a professional fight in nearly 20 years. Because he hasn’t been training in real fight games in a very long time, it’s expected that his cardiovascular conditioning will likely be low, even if he does look aesthetically outstanding for a man his age. That is a bigger reason for the two-minute rounds than just the age; 54-year-old German cruiserweight Firat Arslan, for instance, still trains and fights actively in scheduled 10- and 12-round bouts with the normal three-minute rounds, though he tends to face opposition that won’t take him past the opening few rounds anymore.

If the fight is fully on the level, and there’s no cooperation between the two meant to make this an eight-round draw, the conventional wisdom is that the shorter and much older Tyson will need to get in close on the 27-year-old Paul, who may not be any sort of legitimate contender as a professional boxer, but has had dedicated training for about five years now.

That means Paul, while limited, is not completely clueless in the ring, nor is he a fists-flying, all-action risk-taker in the occasional fight where he faces someone who brings any sort of danger. Look back at his fights with faded MMA veterans Tyron Woodley, Anderson Silva, and Nate Diaz, and his loss to low-grade boxing prospect Tommy Fury, half-brother to Tyson Fury.

Paul was arguably overly cautious against Fury, and was unable to as easily work behind his basic boxing skills as he normally has been. And he showed respect for Woodley, Silva, and Diaz in different ways; on paper, Woodley had the power to hurt him, Silva had better boxing skills than anyone else he’d faced, and Diaz is just a proper tough man, someone who wasn’t going to go away as easily as Ben Askren or former NBA player Nate Robinson.

Paul’s wins after Diaz have come against a pair of boxing club fighters with paper-thin records, both ending in the first round, and MMA/bare knuckle ruffian “Platinum” Mike Perry, who stepped in to fight Paul in July and was battered until stopped in round six.

Even at his advanced age, Tyson has a level of boxing skill that Paul has never seen, and will also be the naturally biggest man Paul has faced to date. Paul has faced taller fighters than Tyson, but “Iron Mike” was a career heavyweight, while Paul has never weighed over 200 lbs in any bout and tends to carefully choose opponents who are naturally smaller than him, often significantly so.

Tyson may be limited to “fighting in spurts,” hoping to land something significant, particularly to the body, while also not emptying his gas tank to the point that he starts sucking wind and becomes a sitting duck for a man who was less than six months old at the time of the infamous “bite fight,” where Tyson was disqualified against Evander Holyfield in 1997.

There is no sense in hoping you’ll truly see the Tyson of old, because you won’t, but even one nasty power punch could be a night-ender, and that flash would be plenty enough for those rooting against Paul.

On the Paul side, the strategy should be fairly clear. Keep the old man at range, control the geography, move around a lot and make him work hard to even get close, make Tyson burn the likely small amount of energy he’ll have entering the ring. But an overly cautious Paul could also be one prone to mistakes, which is what Tyson will be looking to prey upon.

The chances of this fight being a bit dull are quite high. The chances people come away from it thinking they watched something a little closer to WWE than they wanted are also high. And the obvious possibility that this could just be sort of a sad spectacle, where an in-shape, in-his-prime man beats up an old short dude who used to be Mike Tyson, is clearly on the table.

With low expectations, though, one filthy, heavy left hook from Tyson to Paul’s rib cage could be thrilling, and any action at all could be a solid night of entertainment.

The undercard also features a trio of world championship fights, with chief support coming from Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano rematching two-and-a-half years after an instant classic.