Jayden Daniels’ response to pressure will make or break the Commanders playoff run.
Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchup to watch: Commanders’ QB Jayden Daniels and the Commanders’ OL vs. Todd Bowles pressure packages
Commanders’ QB Jayden Daniels has lit up the NFL world this year, possibly locking up Offensive Rookie of the Year in the process. His growth even from his time at LSU has maximized this Washington offense, and has them playing at a very high level. However, if there’s one thing I think he can be better at, it’s his responses to pressure.
This season, among all QBs with at least 50 attempts under pressure, Daniels is sixth in TD Rate at 6.4%. That’s really good! However, he’s also seventh in interception rate and sixth in sack rate under pressure. The only other QBs in the top ten of at least two of those categories are Mason Rudolph, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. He’s still a rookie, but cutting out some of that variance under pressure would go a long way. Some of the funky pressure looks will get him at times, where the pass rush will bring a guy from somewhere else just to drop a guy at the line, like what happened on this interception:
What changed in that game, however, was in the second half Daniels started using his legs a lot more in order to beat the pressure looks. His 12.4% scramble rate against zone coverage is the most in the NFL by a lot, but it works because it is the offense. Those scrambles are what keep the Commanders efficient.
Now they enter the Matrix, against a playcaller who is unafraid of pushing the boundaries when it comes to simulated pressures. Bucs’ head coach Todd Bowles is a diabolical pressure designer, and he’ll bring them from EVERYWHERE. Pro Football Reference has them at second in the NFL in blitz rate, only behind the Minnesota Vikings, and their 44.7% Pressure Rate when sending five or more is 12th in the NFL. However, some of those simulated pressures where they look like they’re blitzing only to drop someone haven’t really been hitting this year. If they’re only sending four, their pressure rate drops to 32.6%. The variance in their sim pressures this year has led to a lot of problems in their passing game, problems that can be exploited by a QB worth their salt as a processor. When the pressures hit, whew buddy they HIT:
When they don’t, you get a game like the first Falcons game where Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards, or Cooper Rush carving you because he knows where all of his answers are against these pressures:
The problem with running all of these pressures where a lineman is dropping and a linebacker is adding on to the blitz is that if they don’t get home, you’re leaving a 260+ pound EDGE defender in space against a whole lot of fast guys. He’s like a penguin in the desert at that point: lost. Expect Commanders’ OC Kliff Kingsbury to implement a lot of 3x1s and 4x1s to try and get the Bucs’ defense to declare where the pressure is coming from, making the game a lot easier for Daniels in the dropback game. Also expect a lot of scrambles; the Bucs allow the 3rd highest Success Rate on QB scrambles in the NFL and Daniels is one of the best scramblers in the league.
Both of these teams have come a long way since Week 1. How they do battle again is really intriguing to me, and might be one of my top games this weekend.
Individual battle to watch: Commanders’ DT Jonathan Allen vs. Bucs’ G Cody Mauch, C Graham Barton and G Ben Bredeson
