Masters 2024: All 89 players ranked by their chances to win Green Jacket

Scottie Scheffler congratulates Jon Rahm for his victory at the 2023 Masters. | Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Every year, the most elite field in golf descends upon Augusta National for The Masters Tournament. SB Nation has ranked them all.

Despite having the smallest field out of the four major championships, the Masters Tournament never seems to disappoint. But to win the illustrious Green Jacket at Augusta National, you must find plenty of greens in regulation.

Augusta is a second-shot golf course, prioritizing ball-striking more than any other facet of one’s game. Driving and putting are essential, but superior iron play is paramount. You have to put yourself in prime positions on the greens to have a chance, and if you miss in the wrong spots, double bogeys loom.

“You go back and look at Tiger’s wins, I think he was number one in greens hit every single one of those years he won,” said ESPN’s Andy North on a recent media call.

“You look at a guy like Scottie Scheffler, who is such a good iron player, you can’t imagine him not having a great chance to win at Augusta.”

Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Scottie Scheffler and caddie Ted Scott during the second of the 2023 Masters.

Knowing this intel, the Playing Through team compiled a list of all 88 players in this year’s Masters based on their chances to win.

1. Scottie Scheffler

Nobody on the planet is currently playing better than Scottie Scheffler. His tee-to-green metrics are so good that a halfway decent week with the putter will lead him to a second Masters victory.

2. Jon Rahm

Jon Rahm arrives as the defending Masters champion and obviously has the game to win again at Augusta. Even though he has not played as much this year thanks to his limited schedule with LIV Golf, Rahm is as talented a player as any in the world.

3. Xander Schauffele

Aside from missing the cut at the 2022 Masters, Xander Schauffele has played well in his previous five appearances at Augusta. He’s due for a major breakthrough and ranks second overall in strokes gained on tour. Schauffele has the game to win.

4. Wyndham Clark

Wyndham Clark has a terrific chance to become the first Masters rookie to win since 1979, when Fuzzy Zoeller last did so. He has no glaring weaknesses in his game and is a solid putter. A win at Augusta would cement an incredible 12-month stretch.

5. Rory McIlroy

Rory McIlroy has not finished in the top 10 since winning the Hero Dubai Desert Classic in January. And yet, from tee to green, he is as good as anyone. But as Scott Van Pelt told us earlier this week, he can win if he rolls in a bunch of 30-footers. That’s a big if, however.

Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Rory McIlroy during the second round of the 2023 Masters.

6. Patrick Cantlay

People forget that Patrick Cantlay held a share of the lead late on Sunday in 2019. Like others listed here, he has no flaws in his game but has yet to win a major. He has struggled somewhat in 2023, however.

7. Ludvig Åberg

Finally, Ludvig Åberg will compete in a major championship. Like Clark, he, too, has an excellent chance to don the Green Jacket as a rookie. The young Swede is a superstar in the making.

8. Joaquin Niemann

Joaquin Niemann won the Australian Open in December and fired a 59 at Mayakoba in February, leading to a win. A month later, he won LIV Golf’s event in Saudi Arabia. On top of that, Niemann has recorded three other top finishes in Oman, Dubai, and at the Australian PGA, which helped him earn a special invite to Augusta. He also leads LIV Golf in strokes gained so far this season.

9. Brooks Koepka

No player in the past decade has played better in majors than Brooks Koepka. It would surprise nobody if ‘Big Bad Brooks’ silenced the demons of yesteryear and had Jon Rahm drape the Green Jacket over him in Butler Cabin.

10. Jordan Spieth

This year’s Masters will mark Jordan Spieth’s 11th appearance. In his previous 10 starts, Spieth has only finished outside the top 20 three times, including a tie for 21st in 2019. He has five top-5s and a win in 2015. The Texan loves this golf course.

11. Max Homa

Max Homa has a poor record at Augusta National, which is a surprise, considering he is a solid putter and ball-striker. But he has not had the best of campaigns so far in 2024. A tie for 8th at Bay Hill is his best finish this year.

12. Hideki Matsuyama

We all saw what Hideki Matsuyama could do on Sunday at the Genesis Invitational. He is an otherworldly talent and has won at Augusta National before, so what says he can’t do it again? His four most recent starts: win, tie for 12th, tie for 6th, tie for 7th.

13. Brian Harman

Brian Harman proved himself as a fearless killer at Royal Liverpool last year. Even though he has missed his last two cuts at Augusta, Harman is a terrific putter and iron player. Plus, lefties tend to play well at The Masters.

Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Brian Harman at the 2023 Masters.

14. Tony Finau

Tony Finau’s only missed cut this year came at the Valspar Championship, and after his stumble at Innisbrook, he rebounded with a tie for 2nd in Houston. Finau has never missed the weekend at Augusta National and has three top 10s in six appearances.

15. Viktor Hovland

Viktor Hovland has been unable to capture the magic that he discovered in August 2023, when he won the BMW and Tour Championships. He ranks 106th in strokes gained: approaching the green this season, and his short game has escaped him. Still, he is an incredible talent and can contend without his best stuff.

16. Matt Fitzpatrick

Inconsistency has plagued Matt Fitzpatrick so far this season, but his putting and shot-making ability always gives the Englishman a solid chance. Plus, it seems like he is rounding to form. Fitzpatrick finished solo fifth and tied for 10th in his last two starts.

17. Sahith Theegala

Sahith Theegala has had a solid year thus far, with his best finish coming at The Sentry, where he came in 2nd. He finished in 9th in his Masters debut a year ago, which included a chip-in birdie on 16 during Sunday’s final round. Sound familiar?

18. Cameron Young

After missing the cut in his first Masters in 2022, Cameron Young tied for 7th in 2023. The bomber from Westchester is also a terrific ball-striker, but putting has plagued him this season. Still, he has four top-20 finishes, including a solo 2nd at the Valspar Championship.

19. Shane Lowry

Shane Lowry has finished no worse than 25th in his previous four starts at Augusta. The Irishman is a terrific ball-striker, and if he can get his putter rolling, watch out. He ranks 3rd on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approaching the green.

20. Collin Morikawa

Collin Morikawa, a two-time major champion, has looked like a shell of himself in 2024. Still, he has three top-20 finishes, and his ball-striking ability cannot be ignored. But if his putter remains cold, he has little chance to succeed at Augusta.

21. Dustin Johnson

Dustin Johnson shattered records at the 2020 Masters, and he is undoubtedly one of the best players in the world when he is on. The question is, will the peak of his powers show up? If they do, Johnson will contend and could very well win a second green jacket.

22. Cameron Smith

One could make the case that Cameron Smith is the best putter on the planet. That usually translates to Augusta National, which features some of the fastest and most undulating greens in the world. The Aussie has three top-10 finishes over the past four years, including a tie for 2nd in 2020.

Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images
Hideki Matsuyama, Cameron Smith, and Sungjae Im walk to the 12th green at the 2023 Masters.

23. Bryson DeChambeau

The big-swinging Bryson DeChambeau once called Augusta National a par-67. Although that may be true in his mind, he still needs a good week on the greens to validate that thinking. Yet, the 2020 U.S. Open champion has the game to get the job done.

24. Sam Burns

U.S. Ryder Cup captain Zach Johnson selected Sam Burns to the team for his putting ability, which should come in handy at Augusta National. He had four straight top-10 finishes in late January and February but has yet to re-discover that form.

25. Tyrrell Hatton

Tyrrell Hatton’s best finish at Augusta National came in 2021, when he tied for 18th. But he has plenty of experience on golf’s hallowed grounds and has the ball-striking capabilities to succeed. If he can keep his mentality sharp, Hatton can be right there at the end.

Numbers 26 through 89:

26. Justin Thomas

27. Tommy Fleetwood

28. Russell Henley

29. Corey Conners

30. Si Woo Kim

31. Eric Cole

32. Adam Scott

33. Harris English

34. Jason Day

35. Tom Kim

36. Phil Mickelson

Photo by Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images
Phil Mickelson shot a final round 65 at the 2023 Masters.

37. Akshay Bhatia

38. Taylor Moore

39. Nick Taylor

40. Min Woo Lee

41. Emiliano Grillo

42. Matthieu Pavon

43. Byeong Hun An

44. Adrian Meronk

45. Denny McCarthy

46. Sungjae Im

47. Stephan Jaeger

48. J.T. Poston

49. Will Zalatoris

50. Keegan Bradley

51. Rickie Fowler

52. Lucas Glover

53. Adam Hadwin

54. Nicolai Højgaard

55. Chris Kirk

56. Patrick Reed

57. Adam Schenk

58. Sepp Straka

59. Erik van Rooyen

60. Ryan Fox

61. Kurt Kitayama

62. Austin Eckroat

63. Sergio Garcia

64. Ryo Hisatsune

65. Justin Rose

66. Peter Malnati

67. Zach Johnson

68. Lee Hodges

69. Tiger Woods

Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images
Tiger Woods withdrew from the 2023 Masters.

70. Cameron Davis

71. Luke List

72. Camilo Villegas

73. Gary Woodland

74. Grayson Murray

75. Jake Knapp

76. Bubba Watson

77. Nick Dunlap

78. Christo Lamprecht (A)

79. Zach Johnson

80. Neal Shipley (A)

81. Charl Schwartzel

82. Danny Willett

83. Jasper Stubbs (A)

84. Stewart Hagestad (A)

85. Mike Weir

86. Vijay Singh

87. Santiago de la Fuente (A)

88. José María Olazábal

89. Fred Couples

Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.