Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images
The overvalued teams, undervalued teams, and potential Cinderellas are in our latest bracket picks for the 2024 men’s NCAA tournament.
The beauty of March Madness and the reason everybody tunes in is because nobody knows what will happen. We think we do. You don’t get credit for predicting the annual 12 seed upsetting the 5 seed. We all know that’s happening.
It’s the No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickson upsetting top-seeded Purdue in 2023 that keeps us watching. Or the No. 2 seeded Arizona Wildcats falling flat on their faces against the No. 15 seeded Princeton Tigers. How could we forget Saint Peters catching fire from deep to take down the blue blood from the sport, the Kentucky Wildcats?
Will there be another longshot upset?
I think we can safely pencil in all four No. 1 seeds advancing. UConn and Houston might win by a combined 80 points, while North Carolina and Purdue shouldn’t have trouble beating their play-in opponents.
But we’ve seen the No. 15 seed win in three straight tournaments, and it hasn’t just been a one and done affair. Each of those teams has made it to the Sweet 16. Will that streak continue this year? Let’s walk through each of the No. 2 seeded matchups.
The teams that pose the biggest threats to pulling off an upset are the ones that can shoot. The South Dakota State Jackrabbits are an elite and above-average three-point shooting team. They’ll face an Iowa State Cyclones team that is fresh off a Big 12 championship blowout victory over the No. 1 seeded Houston Cougars.
The Cyclones have only lost five times in 2024 while only playing teams well above the Jackrabbit’s weight class. State’s pressure defense will be the difference and spoil any upset bid.
Marquette is expected to get star point guard Tyler Kolek back after missing the previous six games. Western Kentucky went 8-8 in Conference USA, and before winning three games in the conference tournament, it lost four games in a row. The Golden Eagles should handle WKU now that they’re at full strength. This will be by far and away the toughest opponent for the Hilltoppers, both skill and physicality-wise.
Saint Peter’s gets the SEC version of themselves. So we don’t have to waste time on the Tennessee Volunteers losing to a team that cannot shoot, does not shoot, and slows the game down as a result to limit possessions. This is not yesteryear’s Peacocks.
This brings us to the Desert cats of Arizona. The Pac-12 was comically bad this season, so it’s hard to gauge how good this Wildcats team is. This is a squad that lost to three teams who didn’t make the tournament — and were fortunate that number wasn’t higher. But Arizona also has another gear that most teams don’t, and beat Duke, Wisconsin, and Alabama early in the year, while losing to Florida Atlantic and hanging with Purdue.
Of all the top seeds, Arizona is the most vulnerable. Caleb Love could go 7-8 or 2-16. Outside of him, Arizona doesn’t have a go-to scorer. Long Beach State likes to push the tempo, which could lead to a high-variance game.
The Beach has several different scorers, two of them capable of heating up from deep. That’s what it’ll take to take down an Arizona team that sleepwalks through a good portion of its games this season.
Which of the 4 or 5 seeds won’t make it to the weekend?
It wouldn’t be a tournament if every 4 or 5 seed won on Thursday or Friday. There will be trendy upset picks, but which team has the best chance?
You can make a case for each double-digit underdog. The 13th-seeded Samford Bulldogs play at a break-neck pace and are facing a Kansas Jayhawks team that doesn’t play more than seven or eight players.
Alabama and Gonzaga don’t believe in defense, while the San Diego State Aztecs are almost guaranteed to start the game with a deficit the way they shoot.
If the Auburn Tigers lose in the first round, this will be my last basketball column. They’re energetic, in your face, and closer to a No. 2 seed than a No. 4 seed. come at you with waves of athletes and make you fight tooth and nail to get a shot off. The Tigers are 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency and sixth on defense and are the best defense at defending the rim. Their best players are left-handed, which is the only justification for them being a fourth seed. They are one of the best teams in the country.
They face the Yale Smarts, who were trailing by six points in their conference championship before a buzzer-beater victory. Auburn is winning by 20.
The ACC was atrocious this year, and that’s why I believe Duke is on upset alert. Kyle Filipowski is an excellent scorer, but you’re tripping if you think I’m not taking the Catamounts. The Blue Devils’ guards are underclassmen and undersized compared to Vermont. Now, Tyrese Proctor, Jeremy Roach, and Jared McCain are capable of getting hot, but since it’s one of head coach John Becker’s worse 3-point shooting teams, the Dukies should prevail. But don’t let Vermont get hot, especially the way they limit possessions defensively.
Let’s circle back to the Aztecs. I wouldn’t trust them in a pop-shot competition, let alone in a tournament setting. San Diego State has lost three of their last five and needed overtime after trailing by four with three minutes left in the conference tournament to beat a so-so UNLV team. We know what we’ll get from Jaedon LeDee. The same can’t be said for the rest of the roster.
UAB is trending in the opposite direction, having won five straight games and had a different leading scorer in their previous four games. During the season, the Blazers beat Drake, FAU, Maryland, and Memphis and lost to Clemson by a point. UAB is also an excellent offensive-rebounding team that won’t get bullied by the Aztecs.
Don’t be surprised if this game comes down to the wire, with UAB leaning on their LSU transfer point guard Eric Gaines in the clutch to seal the victory.
The last thing you’ll remember from Gonzaga is them laying an egg to Saint Mary’s, but the Zags have been dominant in the second half of the season. They are running into a team that has one of the best players in the country, senior guard Shahada Wells, and a McNeese State squad that shoots the three at the fourth-best percentage in the country. They get to the line, don’t turn the ball over, and force turnovers, all while making it tough for you to score. Containing Graham Ike is easier said than done, but if McNeese can limit him, they have a real shot of upsetting Gonzaga. This is a team that went on the road and beat UAB by 21.
Alabama losing would be the least surprising thing from the opening round, but I expect Mark Sears and Grant Nelson to go nuclear against a College of Charleston team that hasn’t seen an offense this potent and doesn’t have the athletes to keep up with the Crimson Tide. It’s an impossible matchup for CofC.
I’m an unapologetic Samford stan, and I have them beating Kansas. The Jayhawks have missed their two best players, Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickson, for a stretch of games. Both are expected to play, but neither’s guaranteed to hit the ground running. Kansas has to rely on defense this year because they lack scoring from the type of teams that have made them contenders throughout the years.
Samford is the eighth-best shooting team in the country from three, forces turnovers at a high rate, and should be able to wear down the Jayhawks. Plus, they have bodies they can throw at Dickinson to neutralize Kansas’s interior scoring. Samford’s pace could force Kansas into early foul trouble and make Bill Self use the bench he doesn’t trust.
Then there’s Grand Canyon. This team is built for the tournament. It’s a shame they’re facing another mid-major in Saint Mary’s. Both teams play at a snail’s pace. The Gaels are in the bottom 10 in the country in pace. They’re also the better version of Grand Canyon.
But the Antelopes have the best player on the floor, Tyon Grant-Foster, who should be playing in the NBA next year. The former Kansas Jayhawk is the type of athlete that Saint Mary’s isn’t used to playing against. I like Grand Canyon’s overall athleticism and multiple shotmakers to pull off the upset against a feisty Saint Mary’s team that goes through scoring droughts and puts too much on Aidan Mahoney’s — a name that screams trust fund baby — plate. This game is a coin flip to me, and I don’t think Grand Canyon’s lack of size gets exposed during the first weekend of the tournament.
Lastly, we have James Madison, who is sure to be the most trendy upset team of the first round—and deservedly so. Before the Big 10 tournament, Wisconsin had lost eight of its last 11 games. The Badgers have an NBA player in AJ Storr, but they are your typical Wisconsin team outside of him—undersized, unathletic, and not very physical.
That doesn’t bode well going against a 31-win James Madison team that plays at a fast pace. James Madison is an experienced team that shoots the ball well and is elite at defending the 3-point line. The Duke’s perimeter length should give the Badgers problems in a game that could come down to the final minute. But Storr is an “Ant-Man” light, and I don’t see him letting the Badgers lose.
You four didn’t deserve to be here, anyway
Clemson? The same team that’s .500 in eight quality games this year and trending in the wrong direction? A road win at North Carolina looks good in hindsight, but the Tigers should struggle mightily against the New Mexico backcourt of Jaelen House, Donovan Dent, and Jamal Mashburn Jr.
I can envision them hunting Joe Girard on defense and scoring early and often. New Mexico will push the pace and make Clemson uncomfortable in a game where we’ll be asking, “Why is an ACC team here?” Plus, the Lobos are one of the best teams in the country at limiting 3s, which is what you want in the tournament. New Mexico and Clemson should flip seeds.
Michigan State? They’ve been an advanced metrics darling all season. They’ve been one of the better defensive teams in the country, have a bunch of seniors, and have the Izzo factor, but they can’t be trusted to score. Sparty has two wins in their previous seven games, with three of those losses coming to non-tournament teams.
They’ll face the 8th-seeded Mississippi State Bulldogs led by freshman phenom Josh Hubbard. The Bulldogs do turn the ball over a lot, but they’re one of the best offensive-rebounding teams in America and should out-tough a Spartans team that doesn’t have a rep for being physical. I can see Mississippi State’s big man Tolu Smith giving Sparty more than they can handle against a Michigan State team that’s here on reputation.
Washington State? The Cougars had only lost three times before last Friday in 2024, including two victories over Arizona. Those wins are why the Cougars are here. They’re a “gritty” that gets by with excellent defense, offensive rebounding, and tremendous three-point defense. But they played in a poor Pac-12 conference.
The real problem for Wazzu is they’re running into a star in Tucker DeVries and Drake, who are the best rebounding team in the country. That’ll offset Washington State’s offensive rebounding edge. Plus, Drake has four different players who made at least 40 or more 3-point field goals this year. Drake will spread the floor, let DeVries cook, and if you help, he’ll find the open shooter. Drake had Miami on the ropes last year before coughing up a 9-point lead last year. Their fortune changes this year against an inexperienced Washington State team.
The Cougars lost nine road/neutral games, including some to teams who didn’t come close to making the NIT. Add in the free throw disparity (Washington State is 268th compared to Drake’s 38th), and we’ll be asking ourselves why in the world Washington State is here.
Nevada? The committee rewarded the Mountain West because there were many close games this season. They equated those results and thought that must mean there were a lot of good teams in the conference. Wrong.
Nevada played Drake out of conference and lost by 19 points on a neutral court. On the road against San Diego State and New Mexico — the two best teams in the Mountain West — the Wolfpack lost by a combined 46 points.
Dayton has an elite offense and was ninth in the country in effective field goal percentage and third in three-point percentage. Nevada has no answer for DaRon Holmes, a 6-10 low-post threat who is guaranteed to block at least four shots in this game. Across the board, I think Dayton has better players and athletes than the Wolfpack.
The committee rewarded the Mountain West Conference with six teams in the tournament, but only the Lobos have a favorable path moving forward.
The Final Four
East – UConn Huskies
Let’s wrap this up by talking about the four teams I like to win it all. If Bruce Pearl and the Auburn Tigers were in any other bracket, we’d be talking about them here. But the committee did such a lousy job of seeding that one of the top five teams in the country is a four-seed in a bracket where the top four seeds have looked like No. 1 seeds at times this year.
Despite doing everything in their power to prevent the national champion from getting back to the Final Four, I have Dan Hurley’s Huskies squeaking by the Tigers in what will go down as the game of the tournament. UConn, the team that played the toughest schedule in the country and still went 31-3, features a senior backcourt that plays a beautiful brand of basketball.
The team with a 7’2 center who can score in a variety of ways with ease and is surrounded by four shooters will probably repeat as National Champions. If they don’t, it’ll be because Auburn wasn’t seeded correctly.
South – Kentucky Wildcats
You’ll notice a trend here: I’m picking the teams with the best players. A revolutionary idea, I know.
If there’s a team that can take down the reigning champs, it’s the kids from Kentucky. If you’ve never watched the Wildcats, let’s just say defense is not their calling card. There may be a point in the first round where Kentucky is trailing Oakland, the winners from the Horizon League tournament. Yes, the same Oakland that lost at home to Wright State by 21 in late February.
By the time you get done trying to convince your group chats to sign a letter that will buyout John Calipari’s contract, the trio of Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham, and Antonio Reeves will have Kentucky playing with a lead. To win it all, you need shotmakers. Kentucky has three insane shotmakers. They’re a team loaded with future lottery picks.
Kentucky has the highest ceiling of any team in the country. We saw their floor in the SEC tournament, but I believe losing in the conference tourney will be the best thing for Coach Calipari’s squad. They’re the perfect kryptonite for teams who lack firepower in their region, like Houston, Marquette, and Wisconsin.
West – Baylor Bears
Baylor scored 90 points in ten games this year. They’re a high-variance team tailor-made to go on a run in the tournament. The Bears are sixth in offensive efficiency, 23rd in offensive rebounding, shoot the three at the fourth-highest rate, slow the pace down, and are battle-tested. They played Auburn, Florida, Seton Hall, Michigan State, and Duke in the non-conference. I look for the Bears to come in focused on a 14-point loss where they shot 5-24 from three against Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament.
Baylor has ballers. There’s a 7-foot freshman center who is bound to frustrate you at some point during the game. He’ll also erase a handful of shots in a half and have a handful of dunks. But it’s the other freshman who’ll be averaging 20 points in the NBA a couple of seasons from now. Ja’Kobe Walter is a 6-5 wing oozing talent and a much better shooter (41 percent from 2-point and 34 percent from 3s) than his numbers suggest.
Seniors RayJ Dennis and Jalen Bridges can also give you 20 on any given night. Dennis can be a bit reckless with the ball, and that could prove costly, but I’ll bank on the team full of lengthy shooters — Walters is a top-5 pick type of talent — will be disruptive enough defensively (they play slow because defending isn’t their strength!) and streaky enough offensively to outlast North Carolina or Alabama. I don’t think the Desert Cats make it to the Sweet 16, so the Bears won’t have to worry about the No. 2 seed.
Midwest – Creighton Bluejays
This is more about Creighton’s draw — which matters when you’re making selections. The Bluejays have been a top-12 offense all season, and they’ve trended even better during their last ten games. Creighton has three red flags: They don’t get to the free throw line, force turnovers, and have a point guard who you can hunt defensively. That may be what prevents the fighting McDermott’s from reaching the final four.
Creighton beat Connecticut, Marquette, Alabama, Iowa, Nebraska, St. Johns, Seton Hall, and Villanova. They have an embarrassment of riches on the roster.
Ryan Kalkbrenner, a 7-1 senior who shoots 71 percent from two-point range, is an automatic bucket. You’re surprised whenever senior Baylor Scheierman misses a shot. Junior Trey Alexander scored 20 points in 19 of Creighton’s 32 games. He’s also a good enough defender to take away the other team’s top scorer.
Creighton tries on defense. They make you beat them by hitting tough two-point shots and are the best team in the country at keeping teams off the free-throw line. It helps that teams are terrified to challenge Kalkbrenner at the rim. Their primary ballhandlers all shoot over 80 percent from the free throw line, which should come in handy in a one-possession game against the likes of a Tennessee team that struggles to score or a Purdue squad incapable of pulling away from a team with a pulse.
The Bracket
Four Cinderella stories who could go on a run:
Samford
New Mexico
Grand Canyon
Drake
Most overvalued teams
Tennessee
Arizona
Duke
Kansas
Most undervalued teams
Auburn
Florida
Kentucky
Drake
