NFL mock draft 2023: Updated first round projection after combine

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Here’s how we see the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft after the combine.

The NFL Combine has come and gone, and now teams are entering the final stretch of the NFL Draft preparation. The biggest decision makers for each franchise came to Indianapolis and not only watched draft prospects, but also to discuss the free agent class and possible trades as well.

Now that the Combine has ended, we have another mock draft for you, with free agency looming in the upcoming days.

What do the Bears do with the first pick?

It’s been clear from the moment the regular season ended: Chicago has the first overall pick, but they really don’t want to use it. Bears GM Ryan Poles is confident in the value of the first overall pick, and has told Peter King that he thinks he can get a first round pick in 2024 and 2025 from the top overall pick. With the value of each of the QBs rising, the Bears could end up getting some nice value from the top pick, to rebuild their franchise around QB Justin Fields.

However, the Bears could also be asking for too much. A 2024 and 2025 first round draft pick is investing a lot of future capital into a QB, and unless a team believes that they can win in the immediate future, those picks could be untouchable. Even though the value of each QB is rising, there is no consensus QB1 in this draft. The top QB on each teams’ board could vary, and the type of QB you want could differ from another. There’s a very real possibility that the Bears end up sticking with the top pick, but in this mock, the Colts go up and get their guy.

Alabama QB Bryce Young might be the most optimal fit for the Colts offense under Shane Steichen. In a shotgun-heavy offense, Young would be able to see the field better despite his height, and his quick timing and playmaking would be perfect for an RPO-based offense. The QB run game wouldn’t be nearly as heavy with Young at QB, but Steichen has worked with guys like Phillip Rivers before, so it’s not too crazy.

Houston stays at 2 and is able to pick up arguably the best pocket passer in the draft in Ohio State’s CJ Stroud. With Stroud’s ability to process and throw the ball with extreme touch and accuracy to the intermediate levels of the field make his fit in a Shanahan style, play action-based offense the best of any QB in the class. Houston might REALLY want Young, but Stroud is right behind him.

Now, Chicago is at 4 but then they trade back again with the Carolina Panthers, who come up and take Florida QB Anthony Richardson. We knew Richardson would test well, but testing historically great for the position was insane to see. Richardson has some ways to go with mechanics; his feet can get too far underneath him, causing him to lose accuracy, but his natural arm talent and his underrated processing ability and pocket navigation under pressure make him a tantalizing prospect. Pairing him with a QB guru like Frank Reich, with a developing offensive line and a star receiver in DJ Moore could help him the most in his development.

Kentucky QB Will Levis ends up with the Raiders at 7, where Josh McDaniels gets a big, strong armed prospect who can thrive in a traditional dropback setting. Levis has sort of an odd release, but it’s quick and when he gets his entire body lined up he can deliver balls with accuracy. His decision making might be an issue (he also tries to be the hero too much), but in Vegas he has the guiding hand of McDaniels, plus some guys named Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller to throw the ball too.

Here’s ultimately what the Bears ended up with:

Chicago trades: 2023 1st round pick(1st overall)

Indianapolis trades: 2023 1st round pick(4th overall), 2023 3rd round pick(79th overall), 2024 first round pick

Then:

Chicago trades: 2023 1st round pick(4th overall)

Carolina trades: 2023 1st round pick(8th overall), 2023 2nd round pick(39th overall), 2023 3rd round pick(93rd overall)

Chicago needed to accumulate picks, and with these trades they stay in position to get a top talent while gaining more shots at the dart board throughout the draft. They even got a 2024 first rounder out of it as well. Chicago ends up taking Iowa EDGE Lukas Van Ness here, a guy who fits the athletic profile of EDGEs Eberflus has coached in Indianapolis as their defensive coordinator.

Rodgers goes to the Big Apple

I think the Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay is over. Yesterday, news broke that the Packers QB has been talking with the Jets and the Packers are allowing this to happen. With the Packers putting an emphasis on Jordan Love getting in-game reps as the next step in his development, the writing is on the wall for Rodgers to end up in New York.

Now, what kind of compensation would a QB like Rodgers get? Well we can take a bit from the Broncos trading for Russell Wilson and try and piece together what it could possibly look like. Last year, the Broncos traded three players, a 2022 and 2023 first round draft pick, a 2022 and 2023 second round pick and a 2022 fifth round pick to the Seahawks for Wilson and a 2022 fourth round pick. Rodgers is going to be 39 entering this season, so the Packers might not get the same amount that the Seahawks got for Wilson in sheer quantity, but the value of the picks Green Bay will get should look something like:

Green Bay Packers receive: 2023 first round pick (13th overall), 2023 second round pick (43rd overall), 2024 first round pick

New York Jets receive: QB Aaron Rodgers

With those picks in tow, the Packers now have enough to revamp their secondary and receiving corps, which they do by taking Alabama safety Brian Branch and TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston.

Making sense of the Jalen Carter situation

Georgia DT Jalen Carter is one of the best players in this entire draft class. His lateral quickness, power and explosiveness are rare, and his ability to be a gamewrecker is almost unparalleled in this draft class.

However, at the Combine, news broke that Carter was involved in the car accident that took the life of Georgia OL Devin Willock and staff member Chandler LeRoy. Carter was found to be racing the car that led to the crash. Carter is facing charges of reckless driving and racing in connection with the crash. Carter has said that he will be exonerated, and is working with the police in the investigation.

How far Carter falls could potentially be dependent on the outcome of the investigation. If the charges are indeed true and Carter had involvement, his stock could tumble. For now, he only takes a slight dip to Seattle at 5.

Mock drafting for teams without a first-round draft pick

With draft picks being dealt like never before, there are five teams without a first-round pick that we wanted to give their fans something to read about. In this mock draft, the Rams get a replacement for Jalen Ramsey in case he is traded this year or next. The Cleveland Browns find a versatile defensive lineman in Tuipulotu while the Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos catch falling defensive linemen due to size (Kancey) and lack of production in college (Smith).

The last team to have their first selection is the 49ers who grab an interesting receiver prospect in Reed a year before Brandon Aiyuk is set for free agency. Getting a player who can help produce right away at pick #99 is tough by John Lynch does so here.