Here’s our latest projection of the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
The season is now over, the confetti has hit the field, and the champions are celebrating their Super Bowl victory. However, football doesn’t stop here. With the season in the rear view, the NFL world turns to the NFL Draft as the next major event. It’s tough to get a good view of what will happen in the draft because coaching staffs need to be filled out and free agency needs to happen first, but we’re going to give it our best shot.
A couple of housekeeping notes, here. There are two trades in the top-10, and for specifics, here they are:
Chicago Bears receive: 4th overall pick, 35th overall pick, 2024 1st round pick
Indianapolis Colts receive: 1st overall pick
Colts GM Chris Ballard has been very open about going and getting a QB in the draft this year, regardless of their draft position. With the clock possibly ticking on Ballard’s tenure in Indy, he could be looking to make an aggressive move. More importantly than having the first overall pick, Chicago needs as many shots at the dartboard as possible, to really jumpstart their rebuild. The trade benefits both teams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers receive: 8th overall pick
Atlanta Falcons receive: 19th overall pick, 50th overall pick, 182nd overall pick
The Tom Brady era is over in Tampa, and rather than completely tearing down the franchise, the Bucs can opt to go draft their next QB of the future in the event one of the top guys falls. The Falcons really are at the point where they can draft best player available or trade back, and that’s exactly what they do.
Now that we got that out the way, here’s the post-Super Bowl mock draft:
Why 4 QBs could go in top-10 of 2023 NFL Draft
So in this mock draft, I tried predicting what I think is going to happen, rather than what I would do if I were in charge of these organizations. Bryce Young would be my first pick if I were the GM, but it’s rare to see a guy who’s both under 6’0 and 200 pounds succeed as a signal caller in the NFL. Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray are both well built and over 200 pounds, and Young’s size could scare away scouts.
On the other end of the spectrum, you have Will Levis. Levis is a guy who I think can be good in the NFL, but the post-snap decision making and processing is a little questionable. With that being said, Levis is also 6’3 and 230 pounds. He’s the physical prototype for an NFL QB, and when things are going perfectly, you can see the arm talent and accuracy. The Colts have a new offensive mind as head coach, and Chris Ballard and Jim Irsay could fall in love with Levis and make him the top pick.
After Levis, Bryce Young goes off the board to Houston. With Demeco Ryans coming in, there’s potential for another playcaller from the Shanahan tree to be involved in this offense (however, Kliff Kingsbury could be given the job). Young’s spatial awareness and ability to correct mistakes outside the pocket make him the perfect QB for this offense, and so does his accuracy at all three levels.
Stroud goes to Tampa Bay at No. 8, where he can operate from the pocket behind what should be an offensive line that’s improved from last year, and multiple weapons to throw to. When he’s in the pocket, Stroud is a buzzsaw, throwing with touch and accuracy, with good arm strength (though not elite). Against Georgia, he showed the ability to create under pressure and outside of structure, but his ability to do it consistently is the big question.
Anthony Richardson could possibly end up being the best QB from this draft class. Already a world class athlete, with an effortless release, Richardson has all the physical tools to be one of the elite QBs in the NFL. He also is further along as a processor and under pressure than people choose to believe. Despite his numbers, he showed good process in the pocket and with defenders in his face. Richardson’s biggest flaw is lower body mechanics, which skews his accuracy. He gets too narrow and tries to throw with all arm, which hurts him in the long run. Sending him to Carolina with Frank Reich as a teacher/playcaller gives him the perfect nucleus to build upon his tools as a QB.
Analyzing the WR class
Unlike the previous three years, I don’t think there’s a surefire top-flight wide receiver in this class, and the NFL could be taking notice. The wide receiver run could happen later in the draft than we think, but it might start with a player and team that have made a lot of contact with each other since the college football season ended. Boston College WR Zay Flowers was at the Shrine Bowl last week, where he extensively talked with the New England Patriots. The Pats have never abided by traditional draft logic, and Flowers could be their top receiver on the board. For what it’s worth, he would be a good fit in New England. He’s more quick than fast, but he uses that burst to create separation, and has very sure hands.
Nobody knows what’s going to happen with Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (his escapade into the darkness will give us a lot more information), but TCU WR Quentin Johnston fits their height-weight-speed profile. I have a lot more questions about Johnston’s ability to be a true wide receiver 1, but adding him with Christian Watson as Allen Lazard enters free agency gives the Packers a young 1-2 punch at the position, regardless of who’s playing QB.
Perhaps the most interesting player and team fit is SMU WR Rashee Rice to the Kansas City Chiefs. Rice is much better in the Yards After Catch department and making catches over the middle, using his longer arms and compact frame to make tough, contested catches. With Juju Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson, and Mecole Hardman entering free agency, the Chiefs could be in the market for a receiver once again. Rice makes so much sense with what the Chiefs offense wants to be.
Calijah Kancey?
A name that’s been gaining a lot of steam recently is Pitt DT Calijah Kancey. The redshirt junior has been featured in almost every mock draft recently, as high as No. 10 to the Eagles. I’m not exactly there with Kancey yet, but his disruption and burst as a defensive tackle is hard to ignore.
As a 6’0, 280 pound defensive tackle, he has to win with speed and lateral quickness, and does that a lot. The long term viability of having a 280 pound defensive tackle that’s not named Aaron Donald is a large question, but it’s clear that the NFL might value him as a top talent. The Eagles are going to be replacing a lot of their defensive line potentially, including DTs Javon Hargrave, Fletcher Cox, Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph, so picking Kancey at 31 might be better value than picking him at 10.
