The Seahawks face the Bears in Chicago on Thursday. We break down what the game means for the NFL playoff picture.
Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season got off to an early start, with a pair of games featuring some of the top teams in the AFC. In the early game the Kansas City Chiefs knocked off the Pittsburgh Steelers by a final score of 29-10, while the Baltimore Ravens kept their AFC North dreams alive in the later game with a win over the Houston Texans.
The action continues Thursday, as the Seattle Seahawks travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears.
While Chicago has already been eliminated from the playoffs, the Seahawks can either keep their playoff hopes alive with a win, or be eliminated themselves depending on how tonight’s game unfolds.
Seahawks playoff picture
A few weeks ago the Seahawks controlled their own playoff fate.
Now, their fate is largely out of their own control.
Seattle cannot clinch a playoff spot in Week 17, but they are facing elimination. Seattle would be eliminated from the playoffs if any of these scenarios happen:
- They lose to the Bears on Thursday Night Football and the Los Angeles Rams win Saturday against the Arizona Cardinals, OR
- The Seahawks tie against Chicago, and the Rams beat the Cardinals, OR
- The Rams win and four of these teams also win in Week 18: The Washington Commanders (who play the Atlanta Falcons), the Minnesota Vikings (who play the Green Bay Packers), the San Francisco 49ers (who play the Detroit Lions), the Buffalo Bills (who play the New York Jets), the Cincinnati Bengals (who play the Denver Broncos), or the Cleveland Browns (who play the Miami Dolphins). How does this come into play? There is a wild tiebreaker scenario that could invoke the fifth tiebreaker — strength of victory — between the Rams and the Seahawks. We will have more on this in a moment.
Bears playoff picture
The Bears have already been eliminated from the playoffs. At the moment, the Bears hold the ninth pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Tiebreaker implications
With the Bears already eliminated from the playoffs, this game will not have tiebreaker implications for Chicago.
As for the Seahawks a win against Chicago would improve their conference record to 5-6. Why might this matter? There is a wild scenario where the NFC West title could get deep into the tie-breaking procedures, which we referenced earlier. Assume for a moment that Seattle wins against Chicago, and then again in Week 18 against the Los Angeles Rams. That would see Seattle finish at 10-7, with a 6-6 record in the NFC.
Then if the Rams win in Week 17 against the Arizona Cardinals, then lose to Seattle in Week 18, they too would finish at 10-7. That would also mean that the Seahawks and the Rams spilt their season series, kicking in an incredible set of tiebreakers.
In fact, we’ll just let the Seahawks’ team site explain this wild scenario:
If both the Rams and Seahawks win this week, however, it’s not as simple, because in that scenario, a Seahawks Week 18 win would leave both teams with the same record, a head-to-head split, the same NFC West record, the same record in common games, and the same conference record. The fifth tiebreaker after all of that is strength of victory, and heading into Week 17, the Rams have the edge there, thanks largely to the fact that they have wins over the Bills and Vikings.
And thanks to that strength of victory lead, the Rams could clinch this week with a win even if the Seahawks also win, doing so if they get 3.5 or more wins from the Vikings (vs. Packers), Bills (vs. Jets), 49ers (vs. Lions), Commanders (vs. Falcons), Bengals (vs. Broncos) and Browns (vs. Dolphins).
So basically for the Seahawks, to still be in the NFC West race after Sunday, they need either a Cardinals win over the Rams, in which case Week 18 is for the division title no matter what, or if the Rams win Saturday, the Seahawks need to win, and they need four wins from Packers, Jets, Lions, Falcons, Broncos or Dolphins out of the above six games.
Got it?
Good.
