Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images
Plus, we can’t wait for Chiefs-Ravens to kick off the first week of NFL action this season.
The first full week of college football is in the books and amazingly Iowa has a somewhat not totally unproductive offense. Welcome to the new world!
More specifically though, welcome to the first official week of the National Football League. Enjoy time with your loved ones early on because we have games on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday on the other side of this work week (with CFB on Saturday). It truly is the most wonderful time of the year.
Soon enough The Skinny Post, this weekly column you are reading between us (Michael Peterson and RJ Ochoa) will feature some look-backs on the NFL Sunday that was. For now though we have one time left to look forward, including the Thursday night opener.
Happy football season!
Time to officially predict the division winners: Ready, set, go
RJ:
We wouldn’t be a proper football enterprise if we didn’t submit our predictions for division winners so that we could be made fun of or dunk on the world when the season is all said and done.
Last year I (check the tapes, my colleagues will back me up) correctly predicted the Houston Texans to win the AFC South. It was a lonesome limb that I was on and I enjoyed bragging about it at season’s end.
Here is how I see each division shaking out in 2024:
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers
AFC East: Buffalo Bills
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South: Houston Texans
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs
I’ll start at the top and say that, yes, I am predicting the Cowboys to become the first team to repeat as NFC East Champions in 20 years. They have the best quarterback, the best pass-catcher and the best pass rusher in the division. Cream rises to the top.
Elsewhere, while I acknowledge the Detroit Lions as very good (the national media is obviously all over them) I am not going to bet against what we have seen from Jordan Love and the Packers. Atlanta is the easy pick down south and until proven otherwise the 49ers are kings of the west.
In the other conference I am riding with the Bills until the wheels of the wagon fall off and believe that Joe Burrow restores order for the citizens of the Queen City. I’ve got My Texans™️ repeating and Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes.
Michael:
Here’s what I got:
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North: Detroit Lions
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers
AFC East: Buffalo Bills
AFC North: Baltimore Raves
AFC South: Houston Texans
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs will be the Chiefs until someone takes the AFC West away from them.
As you’ll read below, I’m pretty high on the Falcons this year so I like their chance at winning the NFC South this year.
The obvious ones are the Bills, 49ers, and Texans. Even after losing some receivers, Josh Allen will keep them über-competitive. Same with CJ Stroud in Houston. The 49ers are arguably the most complete team in the NFL and I can’t see anyone else in that division having the talent to knock them off.
I see you like the Bengals, but I like the Ravens and their defense more. I’ll make Joe Burrow prove to me that’s he’s fully back from injury before I start pinning them at the top of the AFC North. As for the NFC North, the Lions are still the team to beat in my opinion. Love’s 2023 breakout seemed more of an exception than the rule and I like Detroit’s young stars to be even better with another year under their belts.
Oh, and Go Birds for the NFC East.
Predicting things from Thursday’s opener between Kansas City and Baltimore
Our friends at Field Vision have launched the first AI-driven mobile app that provides professional football’s most accurate game and player-specific predictions and analysis. This app provides intuitive and digestible insights for every type of fan and is available for download through Apple App Store and Google Play Store. We will be assessing two of their projections here ahead of Thursday night’s opener between the Chiefs and Ravens.
What fans will get each week from the app:
Matchup Index: Field Vision’s proprietary model that identifies the biggest mismatches every week, using historical data to predict future outcomes based on scheme, tendency, game plan, and personnel.
Betting Recommendations: A curated list of the week’s best bets vetted by Field Vision’s proprietary model and football experts.
Player & Team Rankings: A unique data-informed point of view, featuring Field Vision’s proprietary rankings (Threat and Havoc Ratings) and detailed analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of each player and team.
Expert Analysis: Access to the weekly blog and newsletter, taking insights and recommendations from Field Vision’s model and delivering them to fans with the context needed to make informed decisions.
Michael:
Per Field Vision’s matchup notes, it sure sounds like this is going to be a game where Lamar Jackson will have to use his legs more often than usual to keep plays alive and extend drives. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is known for sending blitzes early and often and unfortunately for the Ravens, Kansas City has several very athletic linebackers with notable speed and burst to really threaten Jackson in the pocket. Both Drue Tranquill and Nick Bolton love to go hunting in the backfield. LJ will have to pick his moments and running lanes carefully to make sure he doesn’t open himself up to injury.
I like their prediction of over 51 rushing yards for Jackson and I would even go further and say he finds the end zone at least once. At the same time, I will also go ahead and say he struggles through the air and ends up having less than 200 yards passing. First-year Raven running back Derrick Henry will have to put on a class performance if the Ravens want to leave Arrowhead Stadium with a victory.
Field Vision
RJ:
Like Michael and Field Vision I also believe that Lamar is going to have to get on the move a bit which means that new Ravens running back Derrick Henry may not get as many opportunities.
This isn’t to say that both Jackson and Henry can’t have productive days on the ground, but beyond how stout the Chiefs defense is I think we have to factor in the Week 1-ness of it all. Players are going to take a bit of time to adjust to going through an entire game and even though the Ravens want to avenge a lot of history against the Chiefs, you can’t win the Super Bowl in Week 1. Remember that the Detroit Lions won in this spot a year ago and despite a productive season did not even reach the Super Bowl (although they came close).
For what it’s worth Field Vision seems to be taking some of that into consideration and is predicting a lower-level night for Henry.
Field Vision
I’m not brave enough to lean on this prop myself, but the logic certainly checks out.
Wouldn’t it be the most Chiefs thing ever for the Ravens to bring a brand new running back into the fold against them and have it not matter at all?
This is Kansas City’s world and we are all living in it.
On the subject of the Chiefs, our own RJ Ochoa sat down with Creed Humphrey last Friday to discuss a variety of things thanks to our friends at Sleep Number. You can watch the entire conversation above or on the Blogging The Boys YouTube Channel.
Sleep Number is the Official Sleep + Wellness Partner of the NFL, and currently 80% of the League benefit from the improved sleep performance on Sleep Number smart beds.
Creed has been on a smart bed since his rookie year, so he knows how high-quality sleep can enhance his recovery to perform at his best on the field.
Creed just visited a Sleep Number store to check out some of the latest models and learn more about the technology.
Sleep Number’s Biggest Sale of the Year is happening now. You can take up to 50% off smart beds. The sale is live now at SleepNumber.com and runs through Labor Day weekend.
Which players will take home 2024’s postseason accolades?
RJ:
It feels really chalk to go with somebody like Mahomes so I am going to overthink this because that feels appropriate.
Assuming we get a brand new MVP… what about Jordan Love? So much about winning the award is the narrative behind it and he has the big-time contract and the fact that he has lived up to the hype when it was impossible for the Packers to have found another quarterback. Couple that with all of the love for Detroit… if they take out the Lions with relative ease I could totally see this happening.
Defensively I’ll be a homer and say that Micah Parsons is due. Even if you don’t think that this is possible, allow me to paint you a picture:
Micah Parsons wins Defensive Player of the Year
This would be the first time he has won it
Right before serious contract negotiations
With the Dallas Cowboys, of course
When they could have done it this past offseason
And everything we just lived through with CeeDee Lamb (and maybe Dak Prescott) repeats
I’ll throw the Jets a bone and say that Garrett Wilson is the primary beneficiary of all Aaron Rodgers’ attention to the tune of an OPOY campaign. Give me Caleb Williams for Offensive Rookie of the Year in the most chalk thing of all time. I’ll take Jared Verse on the defensive side of that coin because the national media loves anything Rams that they can get their hands on.
Michael:
It just feels weird to think Mahomes would go more than one season without taking home an MVP award. That’s how good he is year-in and year-out. After Jackson won it in 2023, I think Mahomes ends up popping off with new speedy wideouts Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown. Oh, and Kelce is still playing.
The formula for the 49ers should not change in 2024. They’ll feed McCaffrey and he’ll once again score a billion touchdowns. Same thing with Watt and the Steelers defense. They’ll be a tough team but Watt will be the shining star who has not only a knack for getting sacks, but also making splash plays with forced fumbles or interceptions.
After missing most of last year with a torn Achilles, I think Cousins will feast in Atlanta with weapons like Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson, setting up a strong rebound year en route to winning CPOY.
Sticking with the Falcons, I have Raheem Morris winning Coach of the Year behind a strong and consistent offense combined with a new revamped defense that includes Justin Simmons and Matthew Judon.
Caleb Williams already looks like the runaway favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year. The skill players around him are elite for any quarterback. Wideouts DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, rookie first-rounder Rome Odunze, and running back De’Andre Swift look really good on paper.
Lastly, rookie defensive tackle Byron Murphy is my pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Just in his preseason snaps, he looks like an absolutely handful and I think I like him as a dark horse candidate over some of the bigger names at edge rusher like Dallas Turner or Laiatu Latu. Under new head coach Mike Macdonald, I think he thrives immediately.
MVP: QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Offensive Player of the Year: RB Christian McCaffrey
Defensive Player of the Year: EDGE TJ Watt
Comeback Player of the Year: QB Kirk Cousins, Falcons
Coach of the Year: Raheem Morris, Falcons
Offensive Rookie of the Year: QB Caleb Williams, Bears
Defensive Rookie of the Year: DT Byron Murphy, Seahawks
Which 2023 playoff team(s) will fail to make the postseason in 2024?
Michael:
One team I don’t see making the playoffs in 2024 is the Green Bay Packers. I honestly believe Jordan Love’s strong season a year ago was more of a fluke than what we should come to expect in the coming years. He was a first-year starter with one of, if not, the youngest group of skill position players around him. Not only did it seem like Love and his supporting cast played well above themselves all year, but the Vikings not having Kirk Cousins for most of the year also helped them glide through the rest of the NFC North.
In 2024, I expect Love to be good, but not great. Same thing goes for his supporting cast, including new running back Josh Jacobs. I think they end up 9-8 and just miss out.
One other team I’ll name is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Am I dumb for attempting to count out a Mike Tomlin-coached team? Probably, but I just don’t see the offense being all that much better under either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields. I believe they benefitted from Joe Burrow’s injury in the division and a weak AFC outside of the expected teams usually at the top. Sure, they may end up above .500 just like Tomlin always does, but the rest of the conference seems improved (obviously barring a bunch of severe injuries to key players again).
RJ:
To be honest the easy pick here is the Pittsburgh Steelers. I will jump all the way on that bandwagon.
Readers of The Skinny Post may not know this, but Michael looks a lot like Baker Mayfield so he may be upset at this… but I’ll add the Buccaneers to my list as well. The Falcons are ready and going to be the team who wins that awful division.
If I have to shoot for the stars and wonder who else could fall off… how about both the Cowboys and Eagles? Everyone knows what a disaster of an offseason that Dallas had, but remember last season’s second-half collapse from Philly? Tell me it is impossible that they both flounder and that the Commanders sneak in for a division title the way that they have done the last two times they won the NFC East (2015 and 2020).
