Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
This mock has more twists than an M. Night Shyamalan movie.
We’ve hit the week of the NFL Draft, and everything in draft season has shifted. Up to this point so much of the process has been about independent evaluation and not falling for the smokescreen. Now connections take over, and we see mock drafts align with what teams will actually do on Thursday night.
Make no mistake: There will be some big surprises, but veteran NFL heads at least have a pretty good idea about the tendencies of the first picks in the draft and what teams are thinking right now. This is why Peter King’s latest mock is both so illuminating, and also so shocking.
The Texans totally botch their QB decision
Everything, really up to the last week or so, told us there was a toss-up for the top quarterback in this class between Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. Now we’re in draft week it’s stunningly looking like everyone in the league had Young as QB1, and then a chasm to the next passer.
This is best typified by the Texans not taking a quarterback with their No. 2 overall pick, which seemed like the safest lock in the draft — instead rolling the dice on EDGE Tyree Wilson. Don’t get it twisted, Wilson has the potential to become an incredible NFL player, but it’s wild to imagine a scenario where Houston not only passes on getting a top quarterback, but also chooses Wilson over Will Anderson. Anderson is a lock to be a good NFL player. He has a chance to be elite, but perhaps doesn’t have the same ludicrous upside as Wilson.
Still, there’s a really weird disconnect between “we don’t want to take a risk on a QB” and “but we’ll take a risk on a pass rusher.” If you want to swing for the fences at No. 2 then why not Anthony Richardson, who offers more upside than anyone in this draft class by a mile?
Picking Wilson wouldn’t be that bad, but King then has the Texans taking Hendon Hooker at No. 12. Going with Hooker over Richardson (who is still on the board in this mock) is the kind of move that costs a GM their job. King is probably right. Front offices are starting to lose it over Hendon Hooker — but they absolutely should not, because as far as I’m concerned he’s the riskiest, least-likely quarterbacks in this class to become a reliable starter.
The Cardinals get their trade
Arizona shopping the No. 3 pick hasn’t been a secret for a very long time, but the possibility of actually getting a deal seemed up in the air. King settles that with the Titans moving up to No. 3 select C.J. Stroud.
I think Stroud is going to be tremendous, and this would be a huge boon for the Titans. It’s also a trade that makes a lot of sense in terms of blocking the Colts from getting Stroud, making them take a bigger risk on Will Levis — and the Cardinals trade out of conference to limit any potential harm on their end.
I don’t know if the Titans are ready to go all-in on a QB yet, especially when it means giving up huge draft capital to jump up — but I could see it happening.
Bijan Robinson goes at No. 8 to the Falcons
This is one of those picks that’s really difficult to evaluate. Robinson is one of the best prospects in this entire class in isolation, but we can’t isolate how good he is as a running back from the fact he’s a running back.
Robinson will go in the first round. A team will get a phenomenal talent who will likely be one of the best backs in the league within a year or two. However, having the best running back is fast becoming like having the league’s best punter. It’s a nice fringe benefit, but it’s not winning you football games in the modern NFL.
Atlanta is definitely a possibility here, but personally I think we’re going to see Robinson fall to an elite team later in the first round, and it’ll be gravy for them. No. 8 just feels too early.
This one has me absolutely stunned. At No. 15 King has the Green Bay Packers selecting TE Dalton Kincaid out of Utah. Kincaid might be the best pass-catching tight end in this draft, in a similar mold to a Greg Olsen or Travis Kelce — but right now he’s definitely not close to either.
The issue is that King not only has Kincaid going before Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer, but the Packers are going with a TE over Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who falls to the Steelers at No. 17.
I know this receiver class isn’t as vaunted as groups we’ve seen in the past, but it’s ludicrous to me that the Packers would choose to ignore the best WR to take a TE, when the TE class is so ludicrously deep. They could easily get someone like Sam LaPorta in the second round, which is a better scheme fit for them — and try to correct a mammoth need at receiver.
Smith-Njigba and Christian Watson could develop into a hell of a one-two punch. It wild to me that King thinks they would go in this direction.
Anthony Richardson falls to the Vikings!
One of the top quarterbacks will fall. Make no mistake. If we get past pick No. 12 and either Richardson or Levis are still on the board then it’s going to be a long wait.
I’m sure Vikings fans are absolutely losing it with the idea of Richardson being available at No. 23, but I cannot fathom how that happens. Even if you’re the most cynical person approaching him as a prospect I cannot see a world where the Buccaneers pass on Richardson at No. 19.
King has the Bucs taking offensive tackle Darnell Wright, which is a fine pick … IF ANTHONY RICHARDSON WASN’T ON THE BOARD! This is a chance to get a legitimate, NFL-changing player at the game’s most important position, without the franchise-altering risk of taking him in the top 5. Anyone who is picking in the teens and early 20s who isn’t 100 percent sure of their QB should absolutely sprint to the podium to take Richardson here.
That includes the Commanders at No. 16, the Lions at No. 18, Seattle at No. 20, or even the Ravens at No. 22, if they don’t think they’ll get a deal with Lamar Jackson done. I won’t make a bold prediction and say “this absolutely won’t happen,” but Richardson at 23 absolutely should not happen if the NFL has any sense of self respect.
