Should the Bengals tank for the 2024 NFL Draft?

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Football court is in session.

Should the Cincinnati Bengals tank the season, and set themselves up for the 2024 NFL Draft?

It is an interesting proposition. After all, the Bengals sit at 1-3 on the season, and already have a pair of losses in the division: An opening week loss to the Cleveland Browns, and a Week 2 loss — at home — to the Baltimore Ravens.

Quarterback Joe Burrow is still banged up, due to the calf injury he suffered during training camp. While he spoke this week about how it limits him, and does not limit him, anyone watching this Cincinnati offense knows that he is not close to 100%.

That is a major reason why Conor Orr of Sports Illustrated made the case Thursday that Cincinnati should take this opportunity to sit Burrow down and put themselves in position to take advantage of a high draft spot next spring. As Orr writes, “[t]hey would be in a powerful spot atop a potentially generational quarterback draft not needing a quarterback. While it is very early, the 2024 draft is rich in offensive linemen, edge rushers and one of the most sought-after receiver prospects (Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr.) in a decade.”

Should they try this strategy? That question makes for a perfect Football Court. Counsel James Dator will argue that the Bengals should lay down this season, while Counsel JP Acosta will argue they should forge ahead and fight for their playoff lives.

The Semi-Honorable Mark Schofield will render a decision.

Yes, the Bengals should tank the season — James Dator

There’s no honor in continuing this madness. The Bengals aren’t a broken football team, but a severely damaged one — and they have the chance to take another mammoth step forward if they’re willing to accept 2023 as a wash and tank the rest of the season.

If you look at where the team is at right now there’s absolutely no reason to keep fighting. They’re 1-3 right now, in sole possession of last in the AFC North, and until Joe Burrow is completely healthy they aren’t going to be able to win against anyone but the sorriest teams in the NFL.

Burrow is unable to throw with any velocity right now because of his lingering calf injury. It’s taken all the magic away from his game and turned him into one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Is it noble that he’s sacrificing himself to try and win? Absolutely. Is it foolish to let him do this? Damn straight.

Until Burrow get time to recover this team is only chasing moral victories, and there’s no prize for morality at the end of the season. Sure, there’s a school of thought that intentionally tanking hurts the ego of the team, but all that’s needed is benching Burrow and letting him get healthy — which should be the long-term goal anyway when it comes to your franchise quarterback.

Cincinnati faces a brutal eight game stretch that sees them face the Seahawks, 49ers, Bills, Ravens and the upstart Texans. With a hobbled Burrow this could easily be five losses anyway, and it keeps delaying the time their franchise QB needs to recover. The absolute worst scenario would be to keep Burrow in, delaying his recovery into 2024, or even worse possibly exacerbating the injury and turning it into something far more severe.

The Bengals are already resigned to losing Tee Higgins to free agency next year. There simply isn’t the cap space required to have a top-tier quarterback and two top flight receivers on a roster with Ja’Marr Chase needing an extension soon, and easily being the priority of the two pass catchers.

We have a desperate partner in place to make this happen: The Carolina Panthers. There’s no secret the team is dying to get more help for Bryce Young because their receiving corps is so bad, and they have the future cap space to get Higgins the money he covets as a true No. 1. The Bengals could bench Burrow, let him heal and flip Higgins (who they’re going to lose anyway) for a third round pick, which could very well still be at the top of the round.

Imagine a scenario where the Bengals, already an incredible team with a bright future, are able to lock in a Top 5 pick of their own, and essentially get back value on a player they’d lose for nothing. They could solidify their offense with a game-changing tight end like Brock Bowers early in the draft, or even find themselves in a position to move back with a team hungry for a quarterback.

The upside of sitting Burrow is the definition of going one step back to take three forward. It’s the kind of move that might hurt right now, but pay off for the next decade.

The Bengals shouldn’t tank, but they have to be smart—JP Acosta

The Bengals aren’t as broken down as I think most people believe. The injury to QB Joe Burrow is bad because the offense was built around his ability to nullify mistakes as a QB. While that is hampered by the injury, this Bengals team still has enough to be a competitive contender in the AFC and fight for a wild card spot. With the way that their schedule is set up, their bye week is in a couple of weeks. If they can rest Burrow against the Cardinals and Seahawks, go 1-1 over those couple of games and give the QB an extra three weeks of rest to get the calf injury as close to 100% as possible, they can still be in this race for an AFC playoff berth.

The defense will keep them in games. Their 25th in EPA per play allowed right now, but through this rough patch for the team they’ve been on the field a lot and trying to hold together for an offense that is struggling. Which leads to the the next point: the Bengals have to be smart about this injury, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The run game looked really good against the Titans, especially out of shotgun. However, the passing game is a shell of itself: they can’t truly run under center play action because Burrow can’t move, which also limits their effectiveness against the blitz. What they’ll have to do is just straight up cut out the middle man. Go full gun offense if Burrow wants to remain in the starting lineup and be more efficient with the run and let Burrow just point guard it. Is it asking a lot of the OL? Yeah but that’s why you paid Orlando Brown Jr. a lot of money and hired a McVay disciple. They have to find the answers.

This Bengals team can, and should, still try to be competitive this year. Because it might be the last year they get to be with this core.

The verdict

I appreciate both counsel, and their strong arguments.

And a bit from both leads me to my decision.

Counsel Acosta advocates for the Bengals not tanking, but being “smart.” This is persuasive.

So to is this from Counsel Dator: “[A]ll that’s needed is benching Burrow and letting him get healthy — which should be the long-term goal anyway when it comes to your franchise quarterback.”

This carries a tremendous bit of weight, and fits exactly with the Bengals being smart right now. Cincinnati drafted Joe Burrow hoping he could be their franchise quarterback for the next decade. They reacted a new contract with him in hopes of making that dream a reality.

Now they have to do the smart thing, which is make sure he can play for that next decade.

Burrow said it himself this week. Asked if the injury was hampering his ability to throw downfield he dismissed that notion, outlining how the injury really impacts him, which is in terms of moving in the pocket and extending plays.

Or, the part which is unsaid: Protecting himself.

The smart move for Cincinnati right now is protecting their franchise player. They should take this opportunity to rest Burrow and make sure he is completely healthy. If they happen to catch fire over the next few weeks and suddenly find themselves at 3-3 coming out of the bye week and Burrow is completely healthy? Sure, then can decide to pivot and make a run.

But if they are at 2-4, or 1-5, they can pivot towards 2024.

It all starts with being smart now, sitting Burrow down, and protecting their biggest investment.