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Betting lines show us who fans think will be good, and they’re making some huge mistakes.
In just under a week the NFL is back for business. Rookies around the league report to training camp, shortly followed by veterans as we get our first true look at the adjustments teams made in the offseason. Separating the contenders from the pretenders has been a talking point for the last six months as we tap our feet waiting for kickoff in the fall, which makes now as good a time as any to discuss who is drastically being overrated and underrated as football returns.
The best barometer for perceived success is looking at NFL futures betting lines on DraftKings. This represents where people think the league will head this season and there’s some wild speculation inside those numbers.
Chicago Bears — Overrated
-120 to make the playoffs, +265 to win the NFC North
There’s a lot to be bullish about when it comes to the future of the Chicago Bears, but this idea that they’re an overnight contender is a little ridiculous. As it stands the Bears are only narrowly behind the Packers in division championship betting, and they’re odds-on favorites to make the playoffs.
In order to achieve this you’re hoping Caleb Williams is dramatically better than Justin Fields out of the gate. This warped perception of rookie quarterback potential has been tilted by C.J. Stroud’s success in 2023, but history tells us that typically these things take time to mesh. There’s no doubt the Bears are a better team than they were a year ago, but to what end?
It took a 9-8 record to earn a Wild Card a year ago, and while on paper it doesn’t seem like much of a jump to get there from 7-10, the reality is that the NFC North plays a much stronger out-of-conference schedule this season against the NFC West and AFC South, which will limit potential wins, and the fact that Chicago caught some lucky breaks after their bye weeks as they caught locked playoff teams playing timid football, as well as the Cardinals and Falcons.
Make no mistake: I think the Bears have an incredibly bright future, but for 2024 they’re being really overrated by the betting community.
Pittsburgh Steelers — Underrated
+185 to make the playoffs, +800 to win the AFC North
It’s absolutely baffling how little people are thinking of the Steelers right now. While it’s certainly true they play in one of the NFL’s toughest divisions, and rumors of championship contention with Russell Wilson might be wishful thinking, to have them so far out of competing is utterly ridiculous.
This is still an organization that won 10 games last season with pathetic quarterback play from Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph. Whether it’s Wilson or Justin Fields who gets the nod at starting QB they will see a significant upgrade under center.
The loss of Diontae Johnson (who was traded to the Panthers) definitely means the passing game will take a hit, but the Steelers offense is custom-built to have success under Arthur Smith. His run-first approach is built to thrive with Najee Harris and the Pittsburgh offensive line, and defensively this team is still good enough to stop anyone in the NFL on any given Sunday.
I’m not saying the Steelers are a sure lock to win the AFC North, but right now it’s ridiculous how much they’re being overlooked.
New York Jets – Overrated
-160 to make the playoffs, +190 to win the AFC East
We really think a lot of Aaron Rodgers, don’t we? Right now the Jets are favored to make the playoffs, and only narrowly trail the Bills to win the AFC West – while attracting money to be a better team than the Dolphins in 2024.
I actually like the Jets. I think the Jets could contend for a Super Bowl if everything breaks their way. It’s still ludicrous to have them only narrowly trailing the Bills and better than the Dolphins. It essentially puts the entire team’s fortunes on the aging arm of Rodgers, and we don’t even know what he’ll look like a year removed from playing football due to injury, coupled with the cadre of off-field distractions he’s racked up in the last year.
The Jets took a step backwards defensively in 2023, where they went from being the 1st team in the NFL in passing TDs allowed, to fourth. This resulted in a net shift in points allowed from 18.6 in 2022 (4th in the NFL) to 20.9 (12th in the NFL). That means there’s even more pressure on Rodgers to step things up offensively, and there’s no a lot of reason to believe in New York more now than a year ago.
There’s a fine line between believing the Jets will be good, and believing they’re going to be one of the best teams in the NFL. We’ve crossed that.
Jacksonville Jaguars — Underrated
+130 to make the playoffs, +275 to win the AFC South
Everyone is caught in the grips of Texans fever, and that’s led to the Jaguars being really underrated entering the NFL season. As it stands Houston are the runaway favorites in the AFC South, and I get that — but there really shouldn’t be a gulf between then and Jacksonville.
It’s easy to forget this team was 8-3, including a 1-and-1 record against the Texans last season before their collapse. Defense was their biggest problem late in the season, whih can be ameliorated by new coordinator Ryan Nielsen. That alone is enough to be hopeful for the Jags this season, but it goes further than that.
The additions of Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. more than make up for losing Calvin Ridley in free agency. It spreads the team’s offensive weapons around, which is what Trevor Lawrence excels at with his ability to read a full field and find an open man, rather than forcing the ball to a bellcow.
Houston should be the favorites to win the AFC South after their astounding 2023 season, but based on the nunbers people are really sleeping on the Jaguars’ chances this season.
Dallas Cowboys — Overrated
-260 to make the playoffs, +150 to win the NFC East
Water is wet and hope springs eternal for fans of the Dallas Cowboys. Once again we’re approaching a season where big money is banking on the Cowboys having a big year. The problem is that there’s really not a lot of reason to have faith.
Dallas were hamstrung in free agency by the salary cap, which caused them to make no appreciable upgrades to their roster — while poor cap management meant the team also lost Dorance Armstrong, Tyler Biadasz, Tony Pollard, and Tyron Smith (among others). There is no planet in which the Cowboys are a better team today than they were a year ago, yet money has them on-par with the Eagles in the division.
No team is poised for a bigger drop than Dallas in 2024. This is the franchise on the verge of needing a full retooling to adjust for the league moving forward. Offensive and defensively they took a step back, and while they definitely have a chance of still making the playoffs, positioning them as one of the biggest locks to make the postseason in the entire NFL is laughable.
Minnesota Vikings — Underrated
+300 to make the playoffs, +1000 to in the NFC North
Losing Kirk Cousins is definitely a major hit, but the effect that it’s had on faith in Minnesota is way beyond the pale. This is a team that had profound quarterback issues after Cousins was injured, and still managed a 4-4 record with Joshua Dobbs and Jaren Hall under center.
It wasn’t until Justin Jefferson starting missing games that everything went off the rails for the Vikings, which is a testament to just how impactful he as at receiver. Even though it will take time for J.J. McCarthy to learn the reins, there’s enough talent in Minnesota for this team to push for a playoff spot with Sam Darnold under center.
This is another case of the odds not necessarily being wrong, but much too harsh. This team probably isn’t a contender to win the NFC North, but they’re so profoundly far behind the Lions, Packers and Bears that people are betting on them to be the worst in the division by a mile.
I don’t see that happening, and this team is poised to surprise a lot of people who shouldn’t be shocked they’re still a very good football team.
