Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
The Sixers need to figure out how to best utilize their MVP if they want to advance past the Celtics.
The Philadelphia 76ers may have won Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals and knotted up their series with the Boston Celtics at 2-2, but they surrendered a 16-point lead and needed a heroic James Harden game-winning three (again) to do it. That’s not even mentioning the fact that they were saved by the bell, as Marcus Smart’s game-sealing triple was released after time expired.
The 76ers came into Game 4 strong, but the fourth quarter and overtime served as a solid reminder that the Celtics should still be viewed as the favorites moving forward.
Boston has Embiid feeling like Gobert
In 2021, the Utah Jazz held a 2-0 series lead over the Los Angeles Clippers in the Western Conference Semifinals. However, the series turned on its head when Los Angeles pivoted over to a small-ball lineup that enabled them to play 5-out.
This change allowed the Clippers to move paint guardian Rudy Gobert onto the perimeter and made it so Utah would have to pay a hefty tax any time he did venture back into the paint (by way of surrendering an open three-pointer).
When you think of it, the 2022-23 76ers aren’t all that different from the 2020-21 Jazz. They lack great perimeter defenders but remain an elite regular season defense because they have a defensive anchor they can funnel everything into (in the 76ers’ case, that fellow is Joel Embiid).
Unfortunately for Philadelphia faithful, if the 76ers are the 2020-21 Jazz, that would make the Celtics the 2020-21 Clippers. When Al Horford is playing center, the Celtics deploy a 5-out lineup that is perfect for exploiting the 76ers funnel everything to Embiid approach.
To handle a 5-out team like the Celtics, you need to either be really good at keeping the ball in front of you, force a ton of turnovers, or have multiple rim protectors on the floor at once (so that when one is forced out on the perimeter, the other can clean up their mess).
With Harden and Tyrese Maxey in their starting lineup, Philadelphia already has two gaping holes at the point of attack. Georges Niang – one of the three bench players who got playing time for Philadelphia in Game 4 – is also a massive liability in this regard.
Tobias Harris is a big body with decent quickness, but he is often overburdened against the Celtics – having to take on tougher matchups to avoid Boston targeting Maxey and Harden. Even at the age of 38, PJ Tucker is still an impactful on-ball defender, but playing him takes away from the team’s offense (because he’s very limited on that end at this point in time). And De’Anthony Melton played like an All-League guard defender this year, but he’s too small to be the perimeter anchor against a team like the Celtics (who tout a ton of size and length at the guards, wings, and forwards positions).
As for the other two elements we mentioned, the 76ers have not been forcing many turnovers this postseason. Of the 16 teams that qualified for the 2023 Playoffs, they rank 11th in opponent turnover percentage (12.8%). And in terms of secondary rim protection, of the six players we just mentioned, Melton is the leader among them in regular season block percentage (1.8%) – the guy we said is too small for this series!
Boston doubled down on their 5-out spacing, going with their Horford at the five lineup for the last 13 minutes and 21 seconds of the game – outscoring the 76ers by seven points during that time (despite both Harden and Embiid being on the floor). This left Embiid in the impossible role of having to simultaneously safeguard the paint while also being mindful of not sagging so far off his man that he let Boston burn them from three (remember, Boston is one of the best shooting teams in basketball).
Bringing the 2000s back at the wrong time
During the regular season, Philadelphia was second in isolation frequency and fifth in post-up frequency (per NBA.com). It makes sense for them to play this way, given their personnel. Embiid and Harden are two of the best in the business at creating great looks for themselves out of these playtypes.
The problem with this approach is that teams that possess the requisite levels of length and defensive versatility (i.e., the Celtics) can make these high-value shots much more difficult. Even then, Embiid and Harden are good enough to still score in bunches using this more old-school style. But when their shots aren’t falling, Philadelphia’s offense can look like it was copied and pasted from the mid-2000s.
That’s what happened in Game 4. Through three quarters, the 76ers isolation/post-up centric offense was firing on all cylinders, scoring 92 points in that time. However, in the fourth frame, the Celtics upped their defensive intensity (reaching that next level Head Coach Joe Mazzulla is always pleading with them to unlock) and completely stalled the 76ers, holding them to a total of 24 points in the final 17 minutes of action.
(Sidebar: Shout out to the 36-year-old Al Horford for his incredible defense on Joel Embiid in the fourth quarter and overtime.)
In the end, Philadelphia built up enough of an early advantage to manage to narrowly escape with their second victory of the series. But if they want to earn wins three and four, they need to figure out a way to avoid turning Embiid into Gobert on defense (maybe it is time for some Paul Reed/Embiid lineups) and also find a way to be more creative with their offensive execution.
If they don’t, it’s sad to say, but this Game 4 win was just them delaying their inevitable demise at the hands of the Celtics.
