Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
The Vikings’ ‘competitive rebuild’ is a disaster,
It’s been a horrific start to the season for the Minnesota Vikings. There’s not much pleasure telling fans “I told you so” when they bristled in August that Kirk Cousins and Co. were lingering around the middle of the league in preseason power rankings when they finished 13-4 last year. For Vikings fans there was an expectation for greatness, and now they’re 1-4 with their lone win coming against the hapless Panthers, and that was still a one-score game that came down to the wire.
Sure, you can be an apologist and say “one play in each game and this team is 5-0,” but the point is, they’re not. Now with Justin Jefferson heading to IR for at least four weeks there’s a very real chance this team could be 3-6 when he returns, or potentially even worse if they play down to the Bears or Packers. From there it becomes trying to find six or seven wins in the final eight games, in a stretch that includes the Lions twice and the Bengals, as well as toss-up games with the Saints and Falcons.
Minnesota has resisted rebuilding for far, far too long. This is their chance to truly get out of draft purgatory and reshape this team — but only if they’re willing to pull of the BandAid and lose in 2023.
What would that look like?
Trading assets
Right now the only truly untouchable players on the Vikings roster should be Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Christian Darrisaw. Jefferson is an obvious choice, Addison is showing flashes of potential to become an elite receiver in the NFL, and Darrisaw is a high-level offensive tackle.
The most obvious player to deal is Kirk Cousins, but the problem is finding a place for him. The easy answer is the Jets, but a lot is incumbent upon whether Aaron Rodgers really thinks he can come back this year or not. This would be a one-year rental for New York, garnering at best a late round pick — but it’s not about getting a decent return on Cousins, as much as it is getting his contract off the books and ensuring the tank is in place for 2023. The biggest mistake would be to limp to an 8-9 record, get stuck drafting around the No. 10 spot, and being forced to trade up for a quarterback as the Panthers did last year.
With pass rush lacking around the NFL right now it makes Danielle Hunter a lock as a player to be dealt. He’s quietly amassed six sacks this season, and there are numerous promising teams in need of help off the edge. The Jaguars, Rams, Texans and Falcons all fit the bill and could offer decent compensation to stock the shelves for the 2024 draft.
Harrison Smith is great, but he’s in his mid 30s now, and could be used by any number of teams looking to solidify their secondary. This would be another salary dump move for Minnesota to build for next year.
Finally the last trade target is T.J. Hockenson. Yes, the Vikings only brought him in last year, but he has not been an impact player at the position in 2023. Hockenson has a 66.9 rating on the season from Pro Football Focus, and his drops have been a huge area of concern. This is compounded by the big extension Minnesota locked him into. Because of the lack of production right now it would be a late-round pick in compensation, but it gets the contract off the books so the Vikings can be players in free agency next year.
Handling the draft
This team needs to accept that whiffing on Christian Ponder was over a decade ago. The Vikings have been paralyzed with fear at the quarterback position since then, leaving them to make a seemingly endless string of veteran decisions under center.
However, even before Ponder at No. 12 this team went through a horrific run of veteran rentals: Brad Johnson, Gus Frerotte, Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre (who admittedly almost got them success), Case Keenum, and Sam Bradford. Kirk Cousins has largely worked out for Minnesota, but it’s perpetually left this team in draft limbo. Drafting too high to find a franchise QB of the future, too low to prove that their system is working.
It turns out that the 2024 NFL Draft shapes up really well for a Vikings tank. The Bears will almost assuredly own two of the Top 5 picks if they continue to struggle with the Panthers, and will take one of the two top quarterbacks on the board. If you look at Kevin O’Connell’s DNA as an offensive coordinator it would seem to lend itself more to Drake Maye out of North Carolina than Caleb Williams from USC — but really either player could be a long-term answer.
The Cardinals could easily eek out of a few more wins and put themselves out of the conversation. It seems highly unlikely the Jets will draft low enough because of their defense, and Denver still have too much committed to Russell Wilson. This leaves only the Commanders and Patriots as real threats to nab a top quarterback.
If you enter the 2024 season with an NFL-ready rookie like Williams or Maye, along with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison you’re going to make noise. The rest of the draft can be directed at repairing the pass rush and secondary, with ample free agency money to round out rough edges.
This recipe won’t likely create a winner immediately, but it sets the team up for success.
What does this team really lose by tanking?
The vibes in Minnesota are rock bottom. Yes, they’ve played some very good teams on the whole — but it’s a continuation of the one-score losses that have become this team’s calling card. Fans aren’t satisfied with an endless string of fruitless playoff runs, and the team as constructed can’t get past that point.
There is no obvious scenario where the Vikings can jump into contention with the likes of San Francisco and Philadelphia in the NFC while paying Cousins $35M, Hunter $17M, with Hockenson and Smith at $16M. Even with a cap increase this is too much cap commitment to middling-to-good players.
Locking up Jefferson long-term has to be the No. 1 priority, because he’s the best receiver in the NFL — it’s that simple. You need him to buy into the idea of a new passer coming in to vault this team forward. From there you accept the defense won’t be great for a while, but the offense has the potential to be special in the interim.
You really need to go all the way back to 1985 to find a time the Vikings actually tried to rebuild fully. That was almost 40 years ago. It’s a testament to their fortitude that Minnesota has somehow always managed to be competitive, but it’s never put them in a place to actually complete the mission.
This is their chance. The stars are aligning for a total rebuild, and they have to take advantage of this. More seasons of middling draft picks will not help the Vikings advance to a Super Bowl, only a tear down will. It begins now on the phones, and in the April draft. To miss this opportunity would be to flounder for another decade.
