1 NBA play-in tournament matchup that will decide the winner of every game

Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Here’s the big thing to watch in every NBA play-in tournament game.

The 2022-23 NBA regular season is now officially in the books. And with that chapter of the league year now completed, we now turn our attention over to the third annual play-in tournament.

To help us prepare for the festivities, we figured it wise to preview each of the initial matchups by focusing on the in-game wrinkle that could decide who makes the playoff and who goes home early.

Eastern Conference

No. 8 Atlanta Hawks (41-41) vs. No. 7 Miami Heat (44-38) – Tuesday, April 11, 7:30 p.m. ET

The big thing: Trae Young facing his demons

The explanation: Coming into the 2022 NBA Playoffs, Atlanta Hawks point guard Trae Young was playing at an All-NBA level. That all changed when his Hawks drew the Miami Heat as their first-round matchup.

For five games, the Heat’s defense quite literally blitzed Young with their length and ferocity. The smaller Young stood no chance against this tactic. And as a result, he was relegated to 15.4 PPG (13.2 down from his regular season average), 6.0 APG (3.7 down), and 6.2 turnovers per game (2.2 up from his regular season average) on 46.1% True Shooting (14.2% down).

Akin to how Bane rammed his knee into Batman’s back, it feels like, since that series, the Heat have broken Young. He’s had a down year by his standard, and his struggles against Miami have continued. In his four games against them in 2022-23, Young is averaging 19.8 points, 9.8 assists, and 5.3 turnovers per game on below-average 52.5% true shooting.

Bane’s damage wasn’t permanent. Batman eventually returned and vanquished his fearsome adversary. Can Young do the same with the Heat? Can he overcome their aggressive trapping and double-teaming? Does new head coach Quin Synder have something up his sleeve to solve this riddle?

No. 10 Chicago Bulls (40-42) vs. No. 9 Toronto Raptors (41-41) – Wednesday, April 12, 7:00 p.m. ET

The big thing: Toronto’s length

The explanation: Prior to the All-Star break, the Chicago Bulls’ offense was mired with offensive stagnation. They were 24th in the league in Offensive Rating and often crumbled late in games because defenses could pressure ball handlers like DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine with very little consequence because the team lacked the movement and flow to maintain the advantage their presence created. They were 23rd in assists per 100 possessions before the league’s midseason hiatus.

One of the biggest tradeoffs to the Toronto Raptors’ chaotic, turnover-inducing defense (first in steals per 100) is that teams that move the ball enough can pinpoint and exploit its weaknesses. So, being able to play an opponent that couldn’t capitalize on this tradeoff like the pre-All-Star break Bulls would be the perfect play-in team for Toronto to face.

However, Chicago has partially remedied this issue with their buyout acquisition of Patrick Beverley. Beverley, a notorious defensive pest, has also served to help navigate the Chicago offense through their points of stagnation – making them a much more well-rounded foe. In fact, their popular lineup of him, LaVine, DeRozan, Alex Caruso, and Nikola Vucevic, has a per 100 point differential of +13.7 (78th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass) in their 516 possessions together.

The problem here is that this new lineup comes with a new tradeoff, one we saw in their post-All-Star break clash against Toronto. The Raptors’ length that makes them so bothersome to opponents on defense also makes them well-equipped to crash the offensive glass. Meanwhile, Chicago’s smaller lineup (where DeRozan is basically playing power forward) is at a disadvantage on the defensive glass. In that aforementioned battle, the Bulls were out-rebounded by Toronto 47 to 35 (19 to 6 on the offensive glass), ultimately losing the game largely due to that stark margin.

Can Chicago figure out how to avoid offensive stagnation while also fielding enough length to not get killed on the boards? That’ll be the big question they’ll need to answer if they hope to win.

Western Conference

No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40) vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers (43-39)

The big thing: The state of affairs in Minnesota

The explanation: Before Sunday’s regular season finale against the New Orleans Pelicans, this matchup’s “big thing” would have been centered around how the fit of Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert looks against the dynamic defensive duo of Jarred Vanderbilt and Anthony Davis.

But that was before the scuffle that transpired between Gobert and Kyle Anderson during the Minnesota Timberwolves 113-108 win over the Pelicans. Now, the question shifts from “how does this look” to “who is going to be available?”

After throwing a punch at Anderson, Gobert was sent home for the remainder of the game (that phrase was as funny to type out as it was to read). On Monday, it was announced that Gobert would be suspended for the team’s play-in game against the Los Angeles Lakers. So, the team will have to play this game without their number one paint protector. That says nothing about how this incident has (potentially) permanently damaged team chemistry.

If that wasn’t enough, the Timberwolves also lost defensive firebird Jaden McDaniels for the remainder of the season during that game, as the forward broke his hand after punching a wall in frustration.

In other news, it’s crazy to think that there is so much turmoil surrounding a play-in game that features the Los Angeles Lakers and has absolutely nothing to do with them at all.

No. 10 Oklahoma City Thunder (40-42) vs. No. 9 New Orleans Pelicans (42-40)

The big thing: Who the Pelicans play at center

The explanation: The Oklahoma City Thunder typically deploy small-ball lineups that feature a bunch of versatile wings/forwards that usually stand between 6’6 and 6’8.

On the surface, one might hypothesize that these types of lineups would not do well against teams that possess gargantuan low post big men like the Pelicans’ Jonas Valanciunas. However, because of their length, effort, and sound communication, the Thunder can counter this type of player with aggressive double-teaming and well-choreographed rotations. That means for a big man to take advantage of their lack of girth, said player needs to be a good passer and decision-maker (to be able to identify the temporary advantage and deliver a pass to that spot).

Valanciunas is not one of those big men. And in their most recent matchup against one another, the Thunder feasted on this fact, forcing the big man to cough up three turnovers en route to a +/- of -12 in just over 16 minutes of action (nearly nine minutes less than his season average).

Between his inability to take advantage of their lineups on offense and his own shortcomings on defense (6th percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus, per Dunks & Threes), there is a real chance that the Thunder render him unplayable in this game. And if that’s the case, who will the Pelicans turn to at the five?

Larry Nance Jr. is a versatile big man defender. But without Zion Williamson there to anchor the offense, he might be too much of an offensive negative (-0.7 in Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus) to make his defensive contributions meaningful in this particular game.

Could we see them turn to Jaxson Hayes or Willy Hernangómez? The Pelicans have also, at times, gone to super small-ball lineups with Herbert Jones playing the nominal five. Could we see this? And if we do, how will that look?

I guess we’ll know the answer to this (and all the other questions we’ve posed here) in the coming days.