14 NFL playoff teams, ranked by their Super Bowl chances

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The SB Nation staff got together to rank all 14 teams by their chances of winning Super Bowl 58

The tournament is about to get underway.

When the 2023 NFL Draft came to a close, all 32 fanbases believed their team had a shot at winning Super Bowl 58. But things have changed since them. Now, just 14 NFL teams remain standing at the conclusion of the regular season, each with a chance at bringing home the Lombardi.

However, some teams have a better shot than the others.

Ahead of Wild Card Weekend, the staff here at SB Nation got together and voted on how they would rank all the teams left in the NFL Playoffs, and here are the results. If you feel your favorite team is ranked too low, just remember: It is settled on the team, and not by our votes.

Here are the 14 NFL playoff teams, ranked by their Super Bowl chances as voted on by the SB Nation staff.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers

Are the Steelers are great team in 2023? No, not really — but they have a lot of heart.

In many ways this has been Mike Tomlin’s greatest achievement as head coach of this proud organization. That sounds bizarre for a team that’s won a Super Bowl, but if you looked at the strength of the AFC North entering this year, paired with where his roster sat in the shuffle it was impossible to imagine they’d make much noise this year.

Now they’re 10-7 and have the ability to drag teams down to their level, which is an underrated quality. We often hear of teams “playing up,” but the Steelers are great at turning things messy and thriving in the muck. 10 of Pittsburgh’s games in 2023 were decided by one score or less, and while they’ve been inconsistent — they also live for moments like this.

The deal breaker might be the loss of T.J. Watt, which could be too much for this defense to handle in the playoffs.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It’s easy to laugh at whoever won the NFC South, but the Buccaneers have the ability to play spoiler as a low seed. Baker Mayfield has been rejuvenated in an offense where his gunslinging proclivities can be rewarded by excellent receivers — and this is a very well coached Dave Canales offense.

Realistically this team is several pieces away from being a real contender, but overlook them at your peril. This team isn’t so far removed from the unit that won the Super Bowl in 2021. There’s unpredictability, sure — but this team can play at a high level out of nowhere as well.

Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

12. Green Bay Packers

This was supposed to be a devastating, crushing year for the Packers as they rebuilt and moved on from Aaron Rodgers.

Now they’re the ones in the playoffs, while Aaron and the Jets are at home.

Jordan Love surpassed all expectations to prove he can be “the guy” in Green Bay for the foreseeable future. Love has unlocked the potential of the Packers’ young receiving corps, while second year offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich has drawn up an offense that lets these players shine — en route to a Top 10 scoring offense this season.

This is a building block year, and even if the team’s 9-8 regular season finish doesn’t translate into playoff success right now, it does show that the future remains bright for the Packers.

11. Philadelphia Eagles

It feels like the wheels are coming off in Philadelphia.

And given how we voted, this ranking certainly reflects that.

Maybe it is the mounting injuries. Maybe it is the curse of the Super Bowl-losing team. Maybe it is the “Curse of Big Dom.” But after getting out to a 10-1 record with wins in back-to-back weeks over the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills, the Eagles limped down the stretch, losing five of their last six games to finish 11-6.

Things got even worse on Sunday. They entered the final week of play still having a chance to win the division, provided they beat the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys lost to the Washington Commanders. But by the time halftime rolled around the Eagles were trailing 24-0, both A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts were sidelined with injuries, and the Eagles fans who made the trip to MetLife Stadium were sending down a cascade of boos in their direction.

Could the Eagles still make a run? Maybe. They’ll take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Wild Card Weekend, in a game that still looks winnable on paper. But things are certainly not sunny in Philadelphia, and it still looks like more questions than answers remain.

10. Houston Texans

Week 18 began with the Houston Texans facing a potential elimination scenario with a loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday night.

Week 18 ended with the Texans as AFC South champions.

While many believed the Texans indeed improved their roster with C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. at the top of the 2023 NFL Draft, few outside of the Houston area believed the Texans would find a way into the playoffs in their rookie season. But full credit to DeMeco Ryans and the entire organization, as Houston pulled off what many thought was impossible.

They’ll draw a tough Cleveland Browns team — and their stout defense — on Wild Card Weekend, but what seemed impossible back in August now at least is possible.

Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

9. Los Angeles Rams

Here at SB Nation, we owe the Los Angeles Rams a massive apology.

At the beginning of the season, we looked at the Rams as one of the longest of shots to win the Super Bowl. How long you ask? When we put together our preseason rankings, the Rams were ranked 31st out of 32 teams, just ahead of the Arizona Cardinals, and just behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

So … we have perhaps another apology in store in these rankings.

But the Rams more than surpassed expectations, clinching the playoffs back in Week 17, which gave them a chance to rest Matthew Stafford and other starters in the Week 18 finale. Now? Stafford gets a chance to go home, as the Rams will travel to Ford Field to take on his old team, the Detroit Lions.

Generally speaking, with what the Rams can do on both sides of the football they are going to be a tough out in the playoffs. But with respect to this specific matchup, if Aaron Donald and company can get pressure on Jared Goff early and often, the Rams could be moving on.

8. Miami Dolphins

There are perhaps two ways to look at the Miami Dolphins.

Let’s start with the “glass half full” approach. The Dolphins have one of the NFL’s most explosive, and creative, offenses. They averaged 29.2 points per game this year, second only to the Dallas Cowboys. They averaged 2.53 points per drive this year, behind only the San Francisco 49ers and the Cowboys. In terms of Expected Points Added, Miami ranked fourth in the NFL in EPA/Play, third in the NFL in EPA/Dropback, and fourth in the NFL in EPA/Rush.

All pretty good!

Now for the bad news. Miami was just 1-5 this season against teams with winning records, and they lost to the Bills (twice), the Ravens, and the Chiefs, who they will see this weekend. Miami had a point differential of +105 this year — which ranked fifth in the NFL — but their point different against playoff teams? That came in at -91, and only the Giants and Commanders had a worse number.

Add to that the fact that Miami is banged up, particularly on the defensive side of the football, and it is hard to feel too confident about them heading into the playoffs.

7. Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the playoffs, having won their eighth-straight AFC West title, and they have a chance to defend their Super Bowl title.

However, things feel much different this year for the Chiefs.

If Kansas City is going to get back to the Super Bowl, they’ll need to do something they have never done during their current run under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes: Win a playoff game on the road. While Kansas City is back in the playoffs, they are only the third seed, meaning should they get by the Miami Dolphins this weekend, they’ll need to win at Buffalo next week.

Of course, they still have some things going for them, namely Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Reid, and a defense that has been more of a strength this year than during previous years. If the offense figures out what has been holding them back down the stretch, they could certainly put together a deep run.

But that feels like a big “if,” given what we saw from this offense down the stretch.

Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images

6. Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns making the 2023-2024 NFL Playoffs? That may or may not be a surprise to you, depending on how you viewed the Browns at the start of the season.

The Cleveland Browns making the 2023-2024 NFL Playoffs with Joe Flacco as the starting quarterback? Nobody had that heading into the season, least of all Flacco, who was on the couch when the regular season began watching with the rest of us.

Yet here they are, in the playoffs and a favorite on Wild Card Weekend in their game against the Houston Texans. Their strength is certainly their defense, as Cleveland ranked second in the league in Points Per Drive Allowed (1.43) behind only the Ravens, and first in the league in Expected Points Added Allowed/Play (-0.155). That unit could certainly keep the Browns in games these next few weeks.

As for Flacco, we have seen him go on a run in the playoffs before. Can he do it again?

5. Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions in the NFL playoffs. This just feels … right.

An underdog story that’s impossible to root against, the Lions have molded themselves in Dan Campbell’s image. More than a sum of their parts, this Detroit team spent much of 2023 out-swinging their weight class and proving them can hang with the best teams in the NFL on any given Sunday.

A lot of credit belongs to offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, the most coveted young coach in the NFL. Johnson has unlocked the potential of not only Jared Goff, but everyone in this Lions’ offense to play at a ludicrously high level based off their skill on paper.

This was the 5th ranked scoring offense in the NFL this season, with Amon-Ra St. Brown exploding for 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for almost 2,000 rushing yards. This team is dangerous with a capital D.

The Detroit secondary remains a work in progress, but this team can rush the passer and disrupt running lanes. There’s a reason why the Lions were one of the top teams in the NFC all season, and now they’re a dangerous team in the playoffs.

4. Buffalo Bills

Perhaps the best way to summarize the Buffalo Bills during 2023-2024 is by outlining where they stood entering the final weekend of the season. Buffalo had a chance to clinch their fourth-straight AFC East title, and enter the playoffs as the No. 2 seed in the AFC, meaning their next game away from home could very well be the Super Bowl. They were looked at as one of the hotter teams in the league at the moment, quickly becoming the team “nobody wanted to play.”

They also could have missed the playoffs entirely.

Of course, Buffalo did make the playoffs, and they do enter as the second seed in the AFC. Their next game away from Highmark Stadium truly could be Super Bowl 58. But what we saw in their season finale could be a view into the future, as there could be a team lurking — perhaps the Ravens — that would be in better position to capitalize on Buffalo turnovers and turn a potentially-close game into a rout.

So we might view their playoff chances as we viewed their playoff hopes entering this past weekend: A tale of two extremes.

3. Dallas Cowboys

Is this the year the Cowboys can turn the corner? Well, maybe. Once again we’re entering the NFL Playoffs with Dallas looking like one of the best teams in the NFL, but we’ve fallen for this before.

Here’s what’s different: Dak Prescott. Routinely a top-tier quarterback, Prescott has played the best football of his career in 2023 and put the team on his shoulders when they needed him the most. Prescott is spreading the ball around the offense and making incredible decisions, which has led to a career-high in completion percentage, while also throwing his fewest interceptions since his rookie season.

The Cowboys are strong on the other side of the ball. A brutal pass rush led by Micah Parsons, a brilliant secondary behind them — this could be the year Dallas finally gets the monkey off their back.

2. San Francisco 49ers

Heading into their Christmas Night clash with the Baltimore Ravens, the San Francisco 49ers looked like the most dangerous team in football.

Then, the Ravens controlled that game while forcing four interceptions from Brock Purdy, and San Francisco was forced to hand that title over to Baltimore. For now.

But the 49ers remain a very dangerous team, with a number of different ways to beat you. They can score points in bunches, as Kyle Shanahan has a number of offensive threats to rely on and a quarterback in Purdy who has taken Shanahan’s offense to new heights. While that loss to Baltimore — and Lamar Jackson — might have cost Purdy the MVP he has put up some eye-popping statistics this year. He leads all passers in a number of categories, including Adjusted Yards per Attempt (9.9), Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (9.01), QBR (72.8), and Expected Points Added per Dropback (0.338).

However, the 49ers can also beat you with their defense, as they did to teams like Jacksonville and Philadelphia this year.

So sure, the 49ers lost to the Ravens on Christmas Night. But they look like a team that is good enough to earn another shot at them in the Super Bowl.

Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images

1. Baltimore Ravens

Over the last month of the NFL regular season, the Baltimore Ravens not only locked down the top spot in the AFC, but they put together a resume that looks a lot like that of the top team in the NFL. The Ravens went into San Francisco on Christmas night and handled the 49ers in a potential Super Bowl preview, then in Week 17 they secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a thrashing of the Miami Dolphins.

Lamar Jackson may have locked up his second MVP award with his performance over those two weeks, as he threw for seven touchdowns without an interception in the two wins. Mike Macdonald has the Ravens defense playing like the best unit in the NFL, and the Ravens will be rested by the time the Divisional Round rolls around.

Of course, this is the NFL Playoffs, and anything can happen. And it has to the Ravens. The year Jackson won his first MVP the 14-2 Ravens were bounced right out of the playoffs at home in a loss to the Tennessee Titans. Could it happen again?