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Here’s our full projection for the first round.
There will be zero surprises in the 2023 NHL Draft until the fourth pick. That is basically locked in stone. Throughout this entire process we’ve known Connor Bedard will be the No. 1 pick, and nothing in a million years will change that.
Why? Because he’s just that good. There is Victor Wembanyama levels of hype to his game, or if you prefer a hockey reference: Connor McDavid, but to an even higher degree. A lot of players have been compared to Wayne Gretzky over the years, and everyone has failed to some degree — but there’s just something magic about watching Bedard play that makes it feel possible that he could be the great one.
After that, there’s one lock at No. 2: Adam Fantilli. Any other draft he’d be a No. 1 prospect, so the Ducks will be thrilled he’s there when they pick. Leo Carlsson is a safe lock at No. 3 — and then it gets a lot more murky. This is a pretty lean draft on elite talent outside of the top five, which makes scouting the 2023 class more difficult than normal.
Matvei Michkov could easily fall much lower. This is a really difficult pick to project. There’s no doubt he’s an elite talent who could be a Top 3 pick in any draft (including this one), but Russia’s war with Ukraine, paired with the fact he can’t come over until 2026-27 at the earliest might mean he’s a risk too big for a team to take inside the Top 5.
Keep an eye on Eduard Sale. If there’s a chance for a major riser to inside the Top 10 (or higher) it’s him. Far from a finished product, there are some unicorn traits to his game like his passing vision and touch that could cause a GM to fall in love. There’s risk here, sure, but also a chance for a home-run player.
Gavin Brindley is a weird player to project. There’s so much to love about his game while watching him fly to the puck like a rabid wolverine (forgive the pun, I know he’s playing a Michigan), but he has a very small frame. At 5-foot-9 and 157 pounds he’s the smallest first round prospect in the draft, and that could cause him to fall.
Don’t sleep on Bradly Nadeau. Might as well make this a bookmark for five years from now. I have him going late in the first round, but he could be the steal of the class. A mechanically-perfect Junior-A prospect, we’ll really need to see how he can hold his own against older, stiffer competition. Still, there’s a very real chance he could make a major impact in the NHL one day and be an absolute steal for a playoff team with the luxury of rolling the dice.
