Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports
These NFL draft prospects could be the biggest surprises on Day 1.
Donte Whitner. I don’t know why certain answers pop into my head when I try to recall past examples of draft hype, but when I think of shocking top-10 picks in the past the first name that comes to me is Donte Whitner.
There isn’t a lot left on the internet from before the 2006 draft, but Football’s Future wrote of Whitner at the time that “He has an outside shot of landing in the top-50.” This mock draft from the day of the draft on DraftKing.com had Whitner going 31st to the Seahawks. This one has him going 24th to the Bengals. A writer on the Patriots website had him going with the last pick, 32nd to the Steelers.
From what’s left in that era that we can gather, the general expectation was that Donte Whitner would be a late first or second-round pick, and indeed the draft grades were harsh for a Bills team that picked him eighth overall: “They reached”; “They overreached”; “They could have traded back”.
As it turned out, whether they picked Donte Whitner earlier than they had to or not, the Bills picked a two-time Pro Bowler who played 11 seasons in the NFL and was much better than the first safety off the board, Michael Huff, and he wasn’t called a “reach”.
Who could be the “Donte Whitner” of the 2024 draft, whether that’s as a top-10 pick or a surprise first rounder? There isn’t a clean answer because there hasn’t been a strong consensus of picks past the top five or six, nobody knows who the first defensive player off the board will be. But there will definitely be some huge surprises on Thursday night.
Top 10: DT Byron Murphy, Texas
There is a bit of support brewing for Byron Murphy II to be the first defensive player drafted on Thursday with a number of notable analysts, including NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks, mocking him to the Atlanta Falcons with the eighth overall pick. Murphy has said that he doesn’t expect to make it out of the top-16 based on what he’s heard from teams and added that he has a “Marshawn Lynch mentality” at the defensive tackle position.
Two things from this:
1) Byron Murphy having a Marshawn Lynch mentality at DT makes so much sense.
2) Murphy said he’s been told he won’t slide past pick No. 16. https://t.co/lJGfEp4PWQ
— Joseph Hoyt (@JoeJHoyt) April 23, 2024
Tim Murray of the sports gambling site VSIN wrote that Murray’s +300 odds to be a top-10 pick is a good bet, as well as 10-to-1 to be the first defensive player, arguing he could go to the Falcons at eight or Bears at nine.
The reason for Murphy’s “rise” comes down to the tenacity and intensity with which he plays a premium position that lacks many game-changers in the NFL. Former No. 2 overall pick Chris Long noted on his Green Light podcast this week that he’s “amazed” by Murphy and thinks that while the league has about 25 good edge rushers who aren’t in the top or second tier, the defensive tackle position has a huge gap between the best and the good. He thinks Murphy is a Day 1 starter and on track to be one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL.
When we ask what teams are willing to do in the draft to get a game-changing defensive tackle, we find the following recent results:
In 2023, Tyree Wilson went seventh (he’s listed as an edge but many experts felt he should move inside) and Jalen Carter went ninth, but Carter would have gone in the top five if not for character concerns.
In 2022, Jordan Davis went 13th.
In 2020, Derrick Brown went seventh, Javon Kinlaw went 14th.
In 2019, Quinnen Williams went third, Ed Oliver went ninth, Christian Wilkins went 13th, Dexter Lawrence went 17th, Jeffery Simmons went 19th.
Two things I notice: There aren’t many premium defensive tackle prospects every year with the exception of 2019, and that was five years ago. And there’s no way that this year’s top defensive tackle prospect is going to get out of the first 12 picks. If Murphy isn’t on par with Carter and Williams, he’s at least as good of a prospect as Brown and Oliver.
You will see mock drafts that have Murphy going as late to the Rams at 19. He is much more likely to go to the Falcons at 8, Bears at 9, and maybe even the Vikings at 11 if they don’t get a quarterback with their first pick. Because the difference between the top edge rushers and the next tier of edge rushers is much harder to distinguish than the difference between Murphy, then Johnny Newton of Illinois, then everyone else at defensive tackle
Top 14: WR Brian Thomas, Jr., LSU
I have no doubt, if it weren’t for the presence of three top-10 picks in the same wide receiver class, there wouldn’t even be a debate about Brian Thomas going in the first 14 picks. If you took Thomas as the prospect he is today but put him in the 2023 wide receiver class, he would most likely be the first receiver off the board (Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 20th overall was the first receiver picked last year) and connected to receiver-needy teams in the top 10.
It may be a lazy comp to say that teams will be nervous about passing Thomas in the draft after they made the blunder of passing on another LSU receiver in the 2020 draft named Justin Jefferson, but there’s a non-zero chance that he’s going to get a bump for a lazy comparison.
Jefferson had 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns in his third year at LSU and was the 22nd pick of the draft, fifth at receiver. NFL.com gave Jefferson a prospect grade of 6.46.
Thomas had 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns in his third year at LSU and is projected as the fourth receiver in the 2024 class. NFL.com has given Thomas a prospect grade of 6.47.
The point isn’t that Thomas will be like Jefferson; the point is that people didn’t know that Justin Jefferson would be Justin Jefferson, so with similar prospects many of them are asking themselves, “What is it that I don’t know about this player?” Maybe there’s nothing to miss. Or maybe you’ve talked yourself out of a pick that could be very obvious.
Thomas proved everything he needed to prove in college, he had the second-highest athleticism score at the combine in a highly competitive class of supreme athletes, he ran a 4.33 40 and a 1.50 10-yard split with a 38.5” vertical at 6’3, 209 pounds with almost 33” arms. If Brian Thomas weren’t being compared against Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison, Jr., (we don’t even know if Thomas couldn’t be a better athlete than them since they didn’t test), he would be the receiver that nobody doubts goes in the first 10-12 picks. I’m being a little bit more conservative here by keeping it to the top 14, but Thomas has the resume to go top 10. Chris Simms ranked Thomas second overall, ahead of Harrison and Rome Odunze.
At NFL Mock Draft Database, Thomas has an average draft position of 18th in mocks and the highest anyone has him going recently is 15th to the Colts by Rotoballer’s Kyle Lindemann. I believe Thomas could go higher than his highest projection.
Even with three receivers expected to go ahead of him, Thomas should be a consideration for a number of teams: What if the Bears consider him if all three receivers go in the top 8? What about the Jets at 10 if they decide that Garrett Wilson needs a running mate? If the Broncos don’t love the available quarterbacks, could Sean Payton need a No. 1 receiver after trading Jerry Jeudy? The Raiders at 13 are always a threat to pick one of the fastest players in any draft. The Saints at 14 are desperate for new life on offense.
The list goes on, but Thomas is good enough to get taken much earlier than the projection. Teams waiting until 16 might be too late.
First round: CB/S Ennis Rakestraw, Missouri
While the NFL served some of the league’s top safeties with pink slips (Justin Simmons, Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams, Kevin Byard, Jordan Poyer, etc.) those moves don’t necessarily indicate a devaluation of the position. Antoine Winfield got a $17 million franchise tag. Xavier McKinney got a contract worth nearly $17 million per season. Jessie Bates was one of the best signings during all of 2023 free agency and he makes $16 million per season.
There are more safeties making at least $9 million per season than there are linebackers making $9 million per season, and just as many tight ends making at least $9 million per season (14).
Those players who got released just reached a point in their careers where they were not worth as much as their paychecks and that happens to players every position with regularity. NFL teams want great safeties, they’re just having a harder time finding them lately and perhaps the answer is: college cornerbacks.
Chris Simms’ top 2 safety prospects in the draft didn’t even play safety in college: Iowa’s Cooper DeJean and Missouri’s Ennis Rakestraw.
DeJean is already projected as a first-round pick, but Rakestraw’s odds to make Round 1 might actually be just as good.
The 5’11, 183-pound cornerback out of Missouri with 32” arms, who ran a 4.51 40 at the combine, Rakestraw isn’t in very many first-round mocks (he was in Mel Kiper’s first of the year) and if he is it is somewhere in the last three picks. PFT’s Mike Florio has the Chiefs taking him with the last pick of the first round in his one and only mock draft of the year. NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks did the same.
Is Rakestraw a name that gets thrown around by league sources as a player to watch as a first-round surprise?
ESPN’s Matt Miller wouldn’t think so, he mocked Rakestraw 17th to the Jaguars and he put Ennis Rakestraw in his top-20 for the 2024 class and he compares him to Tre’Davious White:
“Ennis Rakestraw, someone who’s been slept on a little bit coming out of Missouri,” said Miller. “He wasn’t able to participate in the Senior Bowl because of a core muscle surgery. He’ll be working out here in Indy, I expect them to do very well. He’s a top-20 player on my board, compares very favorably to Tre’Davious White. He’s feisty and physical at the line of scrimmage, great in press coverage. Here’s my favorite stat. LSU threw at him one time last year – he didn’t let them complete a pass, they never went his way again. That prolific LSU offense stayed away from Rakestraw. So we know he is a talented player.”
And that’s just as a cornerback, the position most expect. However, part of the reason he’s not ranked as high as the other corners is that he’s not nearly as good of an athlete as they are, he’s not as big as some, his coverage skills need work but he’s a beast in run support and considered a top tackler at the position. Kind of like a safety.
Teams will be looking for that “next Kyle Hamilton” this year and with no answers at the actual safety position, a cornerback like DeJean or Rakestraw being able to play in the nickel or close to the line of scrimmage as a safety could be the answer. If it was just a matter of playing outside corner, Rakestraw might be a Day 3 lock. But as one of the most competitive and easily coachable players in the draft who could be moved around the field like a chess piece, Rakestraw might be the modern fit for a team at the end of the first round.
Bills, Lions, 49ers, Chiefs: They all make sense because plenty of teams could use a safety. In fact, maybe more teams than ever need one.
