3 NFL upset picks for Week 11

Here are our NFL upset picks of the week.

Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season is here, and it offers a tremendous slate of games for fans.

The early Sunday window sees a massive game in the AFC North between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Sunday slate also features intriguing games between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers, as well as the game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Denver Broncos.

Then there is the titanic clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills.

Will we see any upsets this week? Here are some games the staff at SB Nation are eying.

New England Patriots (+5) over Los Angeles Rams

Yes friends, this is an absolutely disgusting homer selection.

But the hope is back in New England when it comes to the Patriots.

Drake Maye’s dramatic touchdown on the final play of regulation two weeks ago against the Tennessee Titans was the first spark of joy, and while that game ended with Maye throwing an interception in overtime in a New England loss, last weekend against the Chicago Bears was a different story. Maye threw a touchdown on the offensive side of the ball, and his defensive teammates flustered fellow rookie quarterback Caleb Williams in New England’s 19-3 win.

Now the Patriots are welcoming in Matthew Stafford and the Rams, as they make the cross-country trip to play in the early Sunday window. That is a recipe for an upset in my book.

—Mark Schofield

Washington Commanders (+4.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

Did everyone just forget how good the Commanders are? This team only lost by one point to a very good Steelers team, and I have a tendency to think that a major factor in that loss was Brian Robinson Jr. being out hurt, their leading rusher.

I’m not saying this is going to be an easy game, but there’s very little to make me believe that the Eagles are worth anything more than the standard home game +3 line. At the very least I think this could be another one point game, and truth be told I actually think Washington will go in and win this one.

The Kliff Kingsbury spread is brutal to defend against, and even though Philly’s pass defense is stellar I can’t shake the feeling that this one might shock them.

— James Dator

Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) over Denver Broncos

This game could truly go either way, but I’m a big fan of what the Falcons have on offense. They face a tough Broncos’ defense, but it’s also a defense that has been susceptible to receptions by running backs (22nd in DVOA against RBs, top 10 against every other skill position). Atlanta has a force of nature in RB Bijan Robinson and a skill position group capable of putting up some big numbers offensively.

On the other side of the ball, I worry about QB Bo Nix against a team that is predicated on capitalizing on mistakes. Nix has played well recently, showing a lot of growth in areas I was concerned in for his growth. Now, he goes up against an Atlanta team with no true pass rush. However, safeties Jessie Bates and Justin Simmons will give him problems, and I think they force a mistake out of him.

— JP Acosta