3 things Chiefs must do to win Super Bowl LIV vs. Eagles

Kansas City Chiefs keys to winning the 2025 Super Bowl vs. the Eagles

The two weeks between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl are interesting for the two teams involved for a lot of reasons. Players and coaches have to deal with people coming out of the woodwork begging for tickets, the media exposure is at an entirely new level, and the silliness-to-football ratio can get out of hand if you’re not careful.

On the plus side, you generally have a lot more eyes on the scouting and matchup aspects of the actual game. Teams will bring in area scouts for their own expertise and perspective, and everything teams do to gain any advantage from a schematic standpoint is doubled and tripled with the extra people and time.

I’m just one guy with a laptop and a bunch of subscriptions to tape and metric services, but if the Kansas City Chiefs were to ask me to consult in any capacity (yeah, right), I would say that these three things are crucial to the Super Bowl three-peat they desire with only the Philadelphia Eagles standing in the way..

Don’t blitz Jalen Hurts.

Two things we know about Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo: He loves cornerbacks who can play press coverage, and he’s very much in favor of the blitz as a concept. This season, the Chiefs have sent extra rushers on 30% of their snaps, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. But there is some susceptibility there. With five or more pass-rushers, Kansas City has allowed 120 completions on 189 attempts for 1,344 yards, 11 touchdowns, three interceptions, 12 pass breakups, and a passer rating of 97.4.

Spags might want to dial down those blitz tendencies against Jalen Hurts, because it’s one of the things Hurts has just demolished this season. Take the up-and-down nature of the Eagles’ passing game out of the discussion here, because this is a thing. Against five or more pass-rushers this season, Hurts has completed 84 of 121 passes for 1,098 yards, 505 yards after the catch, nine touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 119.1.

If you want to put Hurts in a box, the best bet is to flood the zones, give him disguised coverages, and hope that the hesitation to turn the ball loose that has been an issue through most of the season continues to rear its head. But sending the house against him tends to bring out the quickness and decisiveness he needs to succeed.

Make sure your third-down dimes are worth it.

Here’s another Spags tendency to watch. The Chiefs have played dime on 33% of their third-down snaps, the highest rate in the league. And with six defensive backs on third down, they’ve allowed a league-high 228 yards and 125 yards after contact on a league-high 28 rushing attempts. This is where the Chiefs should be aware of Jalen Hurts as a runner – in those third-down 6DB situations, he’s gained 89 yards on just six carries. Oh, and that Saquon Barkley guy could be a problem, too.

Overall, the Eagles have run on third down more than any other team. By a LOT. They’ve carried the rock 114 times on the money down, and the Indianapolis Colts rank second with 74 attempts. Both Hurts and Barkley have crushed it in those situations. Hurts leads the NFL with 51 third-down runs for 238 yards, 114 yards after contact, and two touchdowns. Barkley’s 43 third-down runs ranks second in the league, and he’s gained 295 yards with 152 yards after contact, and four touchdowns.

This might be a case in which the Chiefs go with more nickel and base defense to counter all that. Would the Eagles go with a “You know that I know that you know” thing and throw the ball more on third down? We can but wait and see, but the Eagles appear primed to attack two of Spags’ primary constructs with authority.

Attack the Eagles defense underneath.

You’d figure that in an era where explosive passing plays are supposed to be the be-all and end-all, a team that is categorically incapable of producing them wouldn’t be anywhere near a Super Bowl. But here the Chiefs are in their third straight, and with the NFL’s worst downfield passing game to show for it. This season, Patrick Mahomes has completed just 13 of 51 passes of 20 or more air yards for 465 yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 58.5. Mahomes’ completion rate of 25.5% is the NFL’s worst among qualified quarterbacks.

So, how do the Chiefs get away with this? Because they have a sustaining passing game that is built on paper cut after paper cut, and they win that way. Mahomes has the NFL’s most attempts on passes behind the line of scrimmage this season with 135, completing 122 such passes for 670 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 92.3. He’s completed 215 of 273 passes of 0-9 air yards for 1,871 yards, 13 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 108.0.

This is the Chiefs’ passing game now. Kansas City also ranks third this season in yards after the catch with 2,407, behind the Detroit Lions and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is also their passing game now.

How will the Eagles counter the short passing game? It’s a valid question. As good as the Eagles’ defense has been this season, short passes have been a Kryptonite. Against passes behind the line of scrimmage to 9 air yards, they’ve allowed 321 completions on the NFL’s most attempts (441) for 2,156 yards, 15 touchdowns, no interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 94.4.

Vic Fangio’s defense obviously allows a lot of underneath stuff, and that plays right into Patrick Mahomes’ hands.