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Who could take a big step forward in 2024, and who could could fall back?
NFL teams are largely locked for 2024. Outside of some small, post-draft free agency signings we’ve reached the point where the majority of work has been done. Now, as we hurtle towards OTAs and training camp we have a better sense of where these teams stand, and the remarkable thing about the NFL picture is how much a lot of the worst teams in the league improved.
Solid drafting, good hires, and smart free agency moves could lead to a mammoth turnaround in fortunes when we reach the fall. Here are the teams worth keeping an eye on, because on paper in May they are poised to really make a statement in 2024. Let’s start off with four potential pleasant surprises, and then two add on two teams who can shock the league in a bad way.
Chicago Bears
Key additions: QB Caleb Williams, WR Rome Odunze, WR Keenan Allen, OC Shane Waldron
It’s really easy to forget that the Bears finished the 2023 season at 7-10, winning four of their last six games. Things actually started to come together for Matt Eberflus and Co., especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Now they’re going to pair that with a totally revamped offense, and they made a truly great hire in Shane Waldron who can modernize the offense with Caleb Williams. I’m not quite as bullish on Williams’ year one success and others might be, but I don’t think he needs to have a profoundly brilliant rookie season to still make the Bears’ 2024 a runaway success.
This is a team that could easily get to double-digit wins this season with a fairly favorable slate of opponents full of a lot of toss-up games or favorable matchups. There’s a very real chance the Bears become a playoff team, and that would stun a lot of people who still perceive them as one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Arizona Cardinals
Key additions: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., OT Jonah Williams, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting
The biggest factor in a Cardinals comeback is Kyler Murray. Yes, he wasn’t great to kick off the Jonathan Gannon era in 2023 — but that was largely because Arizona’s weapons were absolute trash.
It’s difficult to overstate exactly what a huge impact Marvin Harrison Jr. could have on this team. One of the most highly-touted receiver prospects of the modern era, Harrison Jr. should easily put up over 1,000 yards in his rookie year.
Combine that with a bolstered offensive line, defensive line, and secondary and the pieces are there. We’re not talking playoff-level improvement like Chicago, because the burn will be slower here — but this is much better than a 4-13 team.
Considering Arizona play in the brutal NFC West I think it’s important to have reasonable expectations, and to this end I think they could easily be a 9-8 or 8-9 team in 2024, fighting for a Wild Card spot down the stretch.
Carolina Panthers
Key additions: WR Diontae Johnson, WR Xavier Legette, OG Robert Hunt, OG Damien Lewis, HC Dave Canales
I know, I know … we did this last year. Rumors of the Panthers turnaround were GREATLY exaggerated in 2023 — but I don’t think anyone could have predicted that Frank Reich would have been an abject nightmare.
This feels very different. If you actually watched Bryce Young in his rookie season you’ll know that he was absolutely not the problem with the Carolina offense. He was stuck with the worst receiving room in the NFL, full of guys who either couldn’t get separation, didn’t fight for the ball, and sometimes both.
This year he gets an overhauled offensive line, particularly at the two guard spots (where Bryce struggled the most with interior pressure), and now he has a true No. 1 who can separate in Johnson. The biggest factor though is Dave Canales. The Panthers new coach worked wonders with Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay, and there’s a lot of belief he can do the same in Tampa. Now, to be fair, he doesn’t have Mike Evans or Chris Godwin to work with, but similar to the Cardinals the Panthers should easily be able to become a 9-8 team that pushes for a playoff spot — especially in the NFC South.
Los Angeles Chargers
Key additions: RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Gus Edwards, OT Joe Alt, WR Ladd McConkey, HC Jim Harbaugh
This is not a five-win team. There is no planet in which the Chargers should be a five-win team. Horrific coaching made them a five-win team. That alone is enough to be bullish on the Chargers to take a step forward in 2024, even if this season is really about laying the groundwork.
Nobody had their foundations torn apart more than Los Angeles. Him Harbaugh’s very specific vision of football meant jettisoning receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in favor of focusing on the offensive line to become a run-first team.
It goes without saying that when you sign both of the Ravens’ free agent running backs and your last name is “Harbaugh” that there’s some familiarity here. Even though Justin Herbert’s stats might take a hit, this team is destined to become more balanced.
The AFC West is brutal, but I think this team is poised to be another Wild Card contender.
Teams that could shock the league in a bad way
New York Jets
Key additions: OT Tyron Smith, WR Mike Williams, DT Javon Kinclaw, OT Olu Fashanu
This is on the other spectrum of surprises. I know there’s this expectation that Aaron Rodgers will step in, everything will be hunky dory, and the Jets will return to being a Super Bowl contender. Truth is: We just really don’t know.
The Jets are a house of cards that could easily collapse to a stiff breeze. Move Rodgers to the side for a second and they’re still leaning heavily on a lot of aging veterans to keep this train moving. As it stands Robert Saleh hasn’t done much as a head coach to inspire confidence, and Nathaniel Hackett’s best selling point is that Rodgers likes him.
This team went 7-10 in 2023, and it’s wholly possible they make only incremental improvement. A nine win finish only to get bounced in the Wild Card (or miss the playoffs all together) would be a shocking result for a team that expected to be in the mix for the Lombardi.
Dallas Cowboys
Key additions: *crickets*
The Cowboys were largely hamstrung in free agency due to a lack of cap space, and then didn’t really do much in the draft to get better. Yes, I know Zeke is back, but it’s not 2018. Hoping for him to return to being a 1,000 yard back is blind hope, with absolutely nothing but faith to back it up.
It’s a make-or-break year in Dallas, and the tea leaves are swirling in a way that could indicate that it’s all about to collapse. This 12-5 team a year ago got bounced by the Packers in the Wild Card, and didn’t get any better.
It would shock people if this team regressed, but the stage is set for a seven win season and then tearing this apart and trying again. Sorry Cowboys fans.
