8 NFL head coaches who could be fired on Black Monday

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Here’s who could be gone after the regular season.

It’s time to take stock for the 18 teams destined to miss the playoffs in 2023, and it could be the end of the road for a handful of struggling coaches. At this point we know the guys who are already gone: Frank Reich in Carolina, Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas, and Brandon Staley in Los Angeles — but who else could be searching for a new job come spring?

Today we dive in and take stock of where teams stand with their respective coaches, and whether we could actually see a change after the regular season.

Absolutely, 100 percent gone — with no chance of return

Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders

Rivera was given one year leeway to prove that he could hang with new ownership in Washington — and this season has been a disaster. Early loyalty to Jack Del Rio put the team in a massive defensive hole, and despite showing some signs of life offensively with Eric Bieniemy, the team collapsed down the stretch to go 1-9 in their last 10 games.

Rivera is unquestionably one of the nicest guys in the NFL, which has always been a blessing and a curse. Honoring his word to his players and coaching staff often came at the cost of success, something that followed Rivera from Carolina to Washington.

There’s a good chance Rivera’s career could continue in a defensive coordinator role, but the Commanders will look to find a young, dynamic coach who can lead them into a new era.

Trending the wrong way — could be gone on Black Monday

Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons

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Up until recently it seemed like Smith had a vote of confidence from Falcons’ owner Arthur Blank, but the vibes are very bad in Atlanta. Initially it had been reported that Smith would return barring a “major collapse” in the team’s final two games — which was immediately followed by getting blown out 37-17 at the hands of the Bears.

Now the Falcons enter a Week 18 matchup against the Saints, and it’s difficult to imagine Smith can find a way to keep it all together. That assumes the locker room is even prepared to compete at full strength for their coach.

Accountability has been a major issue for Smith for much of his tenure in Atlanta, but especially this season. His uneven treatment of players, giving some too much rope and others too little, has become a calling card. It kept rookie Bijan Robinson off the field far too much in his rookie year, while Desmond Ridder got seemingly endless chances to prove himself.

It left Atlanta feeling not just rudderless, but purposeless. With the need for a long-term QB on the horizon, paired with a coach who can find ways to use this team’s offensive weapons, Arthur Smith seems destined to be on the way out.

Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans

It’s wild to think that Vrabel’s job could be on the line after winning Coach of the Year honors in 2021, but this is a different situation that most on this list. Rather than being fired, there are rumors picking up steam that the New England Patriots might trade for Vrabel to be the successor to Bill Belichick.

Why would the Titans give up their coach? Well, there’s a couple of solid reasons to consider:

Tennessee has trended down each of the last two seasons
This would be a natural time to pivot to a new coach

The Titans are projected to have the second most cap space in the NFL next season, they have a promising young quarterback in Will Levis, and they will have a top-10 draft pick. If the team isn’t 100 percent sold on Vrabel being the guy, then trading him away, getting some draft capital, and finding someone to lead the team is an intriguing package.

Trending up — could have saved their job

Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears

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I cannot believe we’re sitting here in early January saying that Eberflus might have done enough in Chicago — but it’s been a weird season. In a matter of weeks the Bears have started to look competitive on defense, Justin Fields is starting to put things together, and there might be enough compelling reasons to let Eberflus stay.

Make no mistake: A lot of this franchise is still a mess, and they face one of the biggest decisions in the offseason whether to roll with Fields and try to increase their draft capital with the No. 1 overall pick (from Carolina), or take a new QB and usher in a new era.

It’s increasingly feeling like Fields will get a little more time under center, which lends credence to the idea that Eberflus might stay for continuity reasons. Time will tell whether either of there decisions is the correct one.

Needs to perform in the playoffs

Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills

It wasn’t long ago that Sean McDermott felt like he was dead in the water. The Bills were so far on the outside of the playoff picture it seemed impossible to find a way in, and news emerged of McDermott’s legendarily bad “motivational speech” in which he praised the 9/11 terrorists.

Now, the Bills are 10-6 and in good position to make the playoffs. Still, this doesn’t mean that McDermott’s job is totally safe. The Bills need to make a serious showing in the playoffs considering their enormous talent on offense, and it’s unclear if McDermott can make it through another year if the Bills get bounced in the playoffs early.

Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

It’s the head coach of the Cowboys. Underachieving is seemingly part of the job requirements, as are rumors about being fired.

This does really feel like a put up or shut up year for McCarthy and the Cowboys. He’s consistently done enough to show he can win in the NFL — but not when it mattered the most.

Jerry Jones is legendarily impatient and another early exit could end McCarthy’s tenure with the Cowboys.

Who the hell knows?

Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

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Conventional wisdom tells us that Belichick should be gone after this season — but it’s Bill-freaking-Belichick. The unparalleled brilliance of the Patriots’ coach over the last two decades makes this an impossible situation to really parse.

There’s no doubt that something has to change in Foxboro. The status quo of Belichick as both head coach and general manager of the Patriots is no longer able to put together a winning organization — and there’s probably a timeline here where a new GM could come in to shape the roster, while Bill concentrates purely on coaching.

Whether he’d accept a change in role like that remains to be seen.

So much is still unknown here. Does Bob Kraft still believe Belichick can do it? Does the head coach want to retire? Could he be tempted by another job with a roster more capable of winning right now? As it stands there are just too many moving pieces to know what happens here.

Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks

This has been a down year for the Seahawks, which followed one of the biggest surprise seasons in recent memory. The question here isn’t whether Carroll is a good coach, and more whether this might be the time to turn the page.

It’s often forgotten than Carroll is 72-years-old, and has nothing left to prove. Can he turn the team into a consistent winner in the next few years? If the answer is “no,” then we could see the team give him a graceful exit where he hangs it up and walks away from coaching.

I think this is unlikely, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a change.