David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
What we got wrong about the 2023 NFL season
Life as a sportswriter offers a lot of uncertainty. But it also provides for some clarity.
Specifically this: You will be asked to make predictions, and you are sure to get the majority of those wrong.
In that spirit, and with the NFL season entering the final stretch, we thought it was worth a few minutes to look back at some of our preseason predictions, identifying which of those we got spectacularly wrong.
And, as you might imagine, there were some true head-scratchers.
All four AFC East teams will finish above .500
Um … yeah. Big swing and a miss here.
In our preseason “Bold Predictions” piece, I made the case that all four teams in the AFC East would finish above .500. Sure, the case was easy to make when it came to the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins, two playoff teams from a season ago.
However, was a much tougher case to make when it came to the New York Jets, and the New England Patriots. Regarding the Jets, it came down to the addition of Aaron Rodgers. A young, talented team that was on the cusp of the playoffs a season ago with a big upgrade at QB? Sure, a winning record made sense.
But New England?
The argument I made at the time was that the Patriots were building a team that could win in the new NFL we were going to see this year. Scoring down, defenses mattering, and offenses fighting on more of a level playing field. New England was going to have a defense that kept them in games, and an offense that would do just enough to win those games.
Early in the year, the defense did their part. A one-score game in the season opener against the Philadelphia Eagles. A one-score game in Week 2 against the Dolphins.
But in each case, the offense did not do just enough to win those game, and they started 0-2.
Then, a win over the Jets — now led by Zach Wilson — offered a glimmer of hope. Only to see the wheels completely fall off in the next few weeks, with a 38-3 loss to the Cowboys and a 34-0 loss at home to the Saints, the two worst losses of the Bill Belichick Era. Now the Patriots sit at 2-9, guaranteed of finishing with a losing record and on the cusp of playoff elimination.
I did not get this one wrong.
I got this spectacularly wrong. — Mark Schofield
The Rams are not as bad as we thought
Ahead of the 2023 NFL season, we ranked all 32 NFL teams by their chances to win the Super Bowl.
Checking in at 31 … the Los Angeles Rams.
“Look on the bright side: USC QB Caleb Williams won’t have to travel far for his next home,” is what we wrote at the time.
However, with Thanksgiving in the rearview mirror, the Rams sit at 5-6, three games out of first place in the NFC West. Yet they are just one game out of the playoffs in the win column, behind the 6-6 Minnesota Vikings. Sure some tough games remain, such as this weekend against the visiting Cleveland Browns and one of the NFL’s best defenses. They also face the Baltimore Ravens on the road in Week 14, and close out the season with a trip to play the 49ers.
But they are miles ahead of where we thought they would be this year. — Mark Schofield
The Giants win will the NFC East
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! I was so dumb. Now look, I’ll defend making that claim before the season began, because it really looked like this team was poised to put it all together to take a big step forward in 2023.
After all, the Giants snuck into the playoffs at 9-7-1 and beat the Vikings in the Wild Card round. New York won the games they were supposed to, and with a mid-tier offense and defense this was a team poised to take a big step forward under Brian Daboll.
My assumption in making this call was that the Giants would keep getting better, and the Eagles — through a combination of Super Bowl hangover and lost staff — would take a step back. Neither happened, and now I look like an idiot. — James Dator
The Lions will let everyone down
I’m really glad I was wrong on this one. Detroit being good this year has been so much fun, and easily the most heartwarming part of the 2023 season.
When I made this call back in September there were a couple of key factors I overestimated: Firstly, how deep the locker room gambling issues would go. Secondly, Frank Reich poaching big chunks of the Lions’ position coaches to bring to Carolina.
At the end of the day Detroit kept the three most important people to make it all click: Dan Campbell, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn are all incredible at their respective jobs and have been coaching their asses off all season long. I’m so very glad I screwed this one up. — James Dator
