Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
Brandon Staley seemed to be stepping into a perfect situation. He blew it.
I have been thinking about Willie Wonka a lot lately.
Much of this is seasonal. As parents of two school-aged children, my wife and I have spent a lot of time these past few weeks debating how to entertain our son and daughter over their respective holiday breaks. As another aside, I never quite understood the line “ … and Mom and Dad can hardly wait for school to start again” in the classic Christmas song “It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas” until I was, well a dad.
We’ll get to football I swear.
But back to Willie Wonka. One of our options over the break is to see the prequel Wonka, staring Timothée Chalamet as a young Willie Wonka. This will tell the story of how he became WONKA, paving the way to the story we already know, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.
You know, the story where a young boy finds a golden ticket?
Brandon Staley was that young boy a few years ago.
Having worked his way through the coaching ranks, starting out as a graduate assistant at Northern Illinois, he found himself on Vic Fangio’s staff when Fangio was the defensive coordinator of the Chicago Bears. Staley was coaching the outside linebackers, but he was also at the forefront of the defensive revolution that has taken over the league the past few years: The two-deep, middle-of-the-field-open coverages that teams like Fangio’s and others have leaned into in an attempt to slow down opposing passing games.
When Fangio left Chicago to become the new head coach of the Denver Broncos, Staley followed. After one year in the Mile High City, again coaching outside linebackers, Staley was given his first NFL defensive coordinator gig, taking over in place of Wade Phillips with the Los Angeles Rams.
In his one season with the Rams, Staley guided Los Angeles to the top of the defensive rankings. The Rams led the league in scoring defense, allowing just 18.5 points per game. In terms of Expected Points Added, they were even better. The Rams were also the top-ranked team in both rushing EPA allowed, and passing EPA allowed.
In fact, they were almost off the chart, courtesy of RBSDM:
All of this made Staley a sought-after candidate in the head coaching cycle that offseason.
Staley’s next stop?
It did not take him far, as he landed with the Los Angeles Chargers, inheriting both a team that had gone 7-9, and a defense that was near the middle of the pack. But it did have one thing that made it a desirable destination.
The golden ticket, in the form of rising second-year quarterback Justin Herbert.
Herbert outplayed his expectations as a rookie in 2020. While he was drafted sixth overall, he began the year as the backup to Tyrod Taylor. But when a freak medical accident sidelined Taylor for the second game of the season, Herbert stepped into the lineup, and did not look back. He took the NFL by storm, en route to being named Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Staley had what many coaches in the modern NFL could dream of: An ascending QB on a rookie deal. If he could remake the defense in his image, the Chargers would be relevant for a long time.
And now … they are anything but relevant.
The Chargers will take the field tonight without Herbert at the helm, as he was lost for the season with a fractured right index finger that required surgery a few days ago. Not that it truly mattered, as their season had in effect ended well before that injury. The Chargers sit at 5-8 on the year, tied with their opponents tonight, the Las Vegas Raiders, for last in the AFC West.
A loss tonight drops them into last place, alone.
And there is every expectation that Staley is simply coaching out the string.
It was not supposed to be this way. But if indeed this is Staley’s final few weeks in Los Angeles, what will his Chargers’ legacy be?
A first season where the team missed the playoffs, when they lost to the Raiders in a “win, tie, or go home” Week 18 meeting when Las Vegas won in overtime. Staley was criticized for a number of decisions in that game, including a failed fourth-down conversion deep in their own territory, as well as a timeout late in overtime that aided the Raiders as they tried to get in position for a game-winning field goal.
Then in his second season, Staley was criticized for a number of aggressive fourth-down decisions, but they managed to advance to the playoffs. They faced the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road during Wild Card Weekend, and broke out to a 27-0 lead in the second quarter.
They lost 31-30.
They blew a 27-point lead.
Then, there was this season. Two aspects of the 2023 NFL season make what is happening in Los Angeles especially painful. First, the defense has been a problem for the Chargers. What was supposed to be Staley’s strength, has been anything but. Remember that EPA graph above, where the 2020 Rams were almost off the chart?
Here is the 2023 version, heading into Week 15:
Down and to the left is not where you want to be.
Here is the other painful aspect for the Chargers and their fans.
This was the year the Kansas City Chiefs were there for the taking.
These are not the Chiefs of old, instead this year’s version is a team that has some issues — mostly on offense — and instead of challenging at the top of the conference, they are suddenly just a game ahead of the Denver Broncos. This was the season where the Chargers, had they lived up to preseason expectations, could have knocked the Chiefs off the top spot in the West.
Instead they’re on the cusp of elimination, and hoping Easton Stick can keep their fading playoff hopes alive. And while Herbert is an extremely talented quarterback, the wins have not followed. Perhaps their loss to the Green Bay Packers this season is the perfect example of how the Staley years will ultimately be remembered. Defensive breakdowns in the secondary led to big plays for the Packers, and while Herbert made a number of big-time throws in the game, drops and squandered opportunities on offense led to yet another one-score loss.
A singular moment from that game that may be seared into the minds of many? This from the game’s final minute:
With the Chargers needing a field goal to tie, Herbert slides to his left before uncorking a near-perfect throw to rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston. A catch here and the Chargers are likely in field goal range, if Johnston does not score a touchdown outright.
But the pass goes through his hands, and they lose by three.
In fact, heading into Week 15, the Chargers endured four one-point losses this year. If they just split those, they’re entering this week at 7-6, level with the Broncos and a game behind the Chiefs.
Staley had the golden ticket. He could have been Charlie.
Instead, the Oompa-Loompas might soon be singing him off the stage.
