Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports
Week 16 of the NFL season is underway, and here is how it has changed the playoff picture
Merry Christmas NFL fans!
And Merry Christmas to you reading from the Detroit area.
The Detroit Lions locked down their first division title since 1993, thanks to their win over the Minnesota Vikings. Thanks to results around the rest of the conference, the Lions are now sitting second in the NFC.
Over in the AFC, the Miami Dolphins clinched a playoff spot of their own, with a field goal on the final play of the game to beat the Dallas Cowboys. However, they have yet to clinch the division, as the Buffalo Bills are still alive.
And now in a playoff spot as well.
Here is the up-to-the-minute playoff picture, ahead of the Christmas Eve primetime game between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots.
This piece will be updated following the conclusion of the Patriots-Broncos game, and then following the three games on Christmas Day.
NFC
In right now
1. San Francisco 49ers (11-3) – z
Remaining games: Ravens, at Commanders, Rams
2. Detroit Lions (11-4) – z
Remaining games: at Cowboys, Vikings
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) – x
Remaining games: Giants, Cardinals, at Giants
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
Remaining games: Saints, at Panthers
5. Dallas Cowboys (10-5) – x
Remaining games: Lions, at Commanders
6. Los Angeles Rams (8-7)
Remaining games: at Giants, at 49ers
7. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Remaining games: Steelers, at Cardinals
In the hunt
8. Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
Remaining games: Packers, at Lions
9. Atlanta Falcons (7-8)
Remaining games: at Bears, at Saints
10. Green Bay Packers (7-8)
Remaining games: at Vikings, Bears
11. New Orleans Saints (7-8)
Remaining games: at Buccaneers, Falcons
z – Clinched division
x – Clinched playoff spot
Christmas came early for Lions fans, as Detroit clinched their first division title 1993. They are now in the second spot, thanks to the Cowboys’ loss to the Dolphins. Dallas slides out of the division lead, and into a Wild Card spot, with their loss to Miami. Cowboys fans will have their eyes on the Eagles’ game, as Philadelphia could inch closer to the division title with a win over New York.
The Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks are the other two Wild Card teams in the mix right now, with matching 8-7 records. The Rams have the tiebreaker over the Seahawks due to their season sweep of Seattle.
As for the mix of teams at 7-8, the Vikings come out on top after tiebreakers are applied. Division tiebreakers are initially used to get down to one team in each division. The Vikings have the head-to-head advantage over Green Bay, which eliminates the Packers. The Falcons have the same advantage over New Orleans, which eliminates the Saints. Then Minnesota’s win over Atlanta gives the Vikings the eight spot.
Between the Falcons, Packers, and Saints, the Saints are again eliminated due to their head-to-head record against Atlanta. Between the Falcons and the Packers, the Falcons have the advantage thanks to their win earlier in the season. So Atlanta slots in ninth.
Between the Packers and the Saints, the Packers have the advantage thanks to their win back in Week 3. So Green Bay is in the tenth spot, and the Saints have dropped to 11th.
NFC playoff matchups if the postseason started today
If the NFC playoffs began today, these would be the three matchups on Wild Card Weekend:
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The San Francisco 49ers would have the first-overall seed, and the first-round bye, in the NFC.
AFC
In right now
1. Baltimore Ravens (11-3) – x
Remaining games: at 49ers, Dolphins, Steelers
2. Miami Dolphins (11-4) – Z
Remaining games: at Ravens, Bills
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)
Remaining games: Raiders, Bengals, at Chargers
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)
Remaining games: Panthers, at Titans
5. Cleveland Browns (10-5)
Remaining games: Jets, at Bengals
6. Buffalo Bills (9-6)
Remaining games: Patriots, at Dolphins
7. Indianapolis Colts (8-7)
Remaining games: Raiders, Texans
In the hunt
8. Houston Texans (8-7)
Remaining games: Titans, at Colts
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
Remaining games: at Seahawks, at Ravens
10. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)
Remaining games: at Chiefs, Browns
11. Denver Broncos (7-7)
Remaining games: Patriots, Chargers, at Raiders
z- Clinched division
x – Clinched playoff spot
The Jaguars are fading, but are still on top in the AFC South even with their loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. Losses by the Colts and the Texans means the Jaguars still own tiebreakers over both teams.
The Buffalo Bills are now in a playoff position, sitting in the sixth spot with a 9-6 record. They now control their playoff destiny, which seemed unimaginable just a few weeks ago.
However, four teams are currently tied with 8-7 records: The Colts, the Texans, the Steelers, and the Bengals. Denver can join them later tonight with a win over the Patriots. But between those four teams, Indianapolis comes out on top for the seventh and final spot, at least at the moment.
Under the tiebreaking rules, division tiebreakers are used first, to “eliminate” a team until just one is left in each division. Pittsburgh eliminates Cincinnati thanks to a season sweep of the Bengals. Indianapolis eliminates Houston thanks to their win over the Texans back in Week 2. Those two teams play in Week 18, which could be a win-or-go-home contest.
Then between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, the Colts are in, thanks to their win over the Steelers back in Week 15.
That leaves Pittsburgh, Houston, and Cincinnati. The Steelers again eliminate the Bengals, leaving just Pittsburgh and Houston. The Texans take the ninth spot, due to Houston’s win over the Steelers in Week 4.
Pittsburgh then slides into the tenth spot, ahead of the Bengals, due to their season sweep of Cincinnati.
AFC playoff matchups if the postseason started right now
If the AFC playoffs began today, these would be the three matchups on Wild Card Weekend:
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Baltimore Ravens would have the first-overall seed, and the first-round bye, in the AFC. Their game with the Miami Dolphins in Week 17 certainly looms large.
This will be updated after the games on Christmas Day.
