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The grass isn’t always greener.
Mike Vrabel is by no means a perfect football coach — but you could do a heck of a lot worse. This could be a lesson the Titans learn sooner, rather than later, after Vrabel was stunningly fired by the organization on Tuesday after it was assumed he was safe, with no announcement coming on the NFL’s “Black Monday.”
The heart of the issue appears to be a power struggle at the executive level between Vrabel and general manager Ran Carthon over the direction of the team. Carthon was hired in 2023 to modernize the Titans organization in the mold of his previous employer, the San Francisco 49ers, and this was naturally going to cause friction with Vrabel and his old school sensibilities. You don’t even have to read between the lines of the statement released by Titans owner Amy Adams Strunk to see that a disconnect between Vrabel and Carthon was the heart of her concerns.
“I believe the teams best positioned for sustained success will be those who empower an aligned and collaborative team across all football functions. Last year, we began a shift in our approach to football leadership and made several changes to our personnel to advance that plan. As I continued to assess the state of our team, I arrived at the conclusion that the team would also benefit from the fresh approach and perspective of a new coaching staff.”
The issue with firing Vrabel isn’t so much about wanting a unified front office approach, as much as it’s questionable where you find that in 2024. Numerous teams around the NFL are in the middle of coaching searches right now, and the Titans throwing their hat in the ring right now isn’t ideal timing.
If we take the owner at her word, then we glean a very clear path for the Titans moving forward. They won’t want an established coach, but rather someone from the NFL’s new school of thought — which eliminates the likes of Jim Harbaugh, Bill Belichick (if he’s eventually fired). We can also assume that this “aligned” vision likely begins with looking at people from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree.
That narrows the search way down to two very specific people:
Houston Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik
Miami Dolphins offensive coordinator Frank Smith
These are two guys seen as the next wave of Shanahan disciples, but despite their success on their respective teams, hiring either is a really dicey proposition. Both are incredibly green when it comes to having a larger role in an organization.
Slowik has done mind-blowing work with C.J. Stroud in Houston, which is what’s catapulted him into head coach conversations — but it’s unclear whether he’s even close to being ready to take over a team. Slowik didn’t take on a significant decision making role with an organization until this season, and hiring him immediately to a coaching position is a major leap of faith.
Smith might be even more risky as a prospective hire. It says a lot that Mike McDaniel vouched for him and made Smith his offensive coordinator in Miami, but let’s be real: McDaniel is the genius behind the operation. Smith doesn’t call plays for the Dolphins, which means his duty is to execute of McDaniels’ vision from a support standpoint, rather than have a true vision of his own.
The issue is that it all just feels too soon. Too sudden. Sure, there might have been some clashes behind closed doors on how to evolve the Titans, but perhaps some butting of heads is what was needed to collaborate and find common ground, rather than just firing Vrabel to find someone in lockstep with the GM. When it comes to a week-in, week-out NFL coach — we know Mike Vrabel can win. It’s not his fault that prior GM Jon Robinson saddled him with Ryan Tannehill on a big contract, or decided to trade away A.J. Brown.
Brass tacks, Vrabel did a lot this season with a little — even if the result was disappointing. Seven of the Titans 11 losses in 2023 came by a score or less, and if Will Levis stayed healthy the team was trending upwards for 2024 and beyond.
As a GM, even if you didn’t believe Vrabel was the long-term answer, the least you could do was convince ownership to let this play out for another year or two. Not so much to see if Vrabel could become an elite coach, but to allow some of the people you had earmarked for future positions to prove it a little more outside your organization, before taking a major risk on them.
Instead the Titans are now pressured to pull the trigger on a coach right now, in a market where a lot of teams are looking for coaches. They will have to contend with the Chargers, who have a high-quality roster with an established franchise quarterback at one end of the spectrum, to the Carolina Panthers on the other, a team with little talent but an owner who will spend ANYTHING to get someone they want.
When the dust settles, the grass isn’t always greener. I fear the Titans will learn that while Vrabel had his own issues, and may not have bought into the modernization of the Titans wholesale — he’s still a very good coach, who could have had success with this team.
Now they’ll roll the dice, and who knows what the Titans will end up with.
