Are the Phoenix Suns NBA championship contenders or pretenders?

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s take a deep dive into the Suns since Bradley Beal returned.

When the Phoenix Suns pulled the trigger on a blockbuster deal to land Bradley Beal, they entered the “Super Team” club. They further cemented their status in this category when they inserted themselves in the Damian Lillard deal in order to nab the likes of Jusuf Nurkic and Grayson Allen.

Unfortunately, early season injuries impaired our ability to truly analyze and assess the new-look Suns. Now, the team has had a run of good health (*knocks wood excessively*), and they have answered that opportunity by going 10-3 in their last 13 games.

With a decent bit of data now in the books, we can finally begin to answer the question: is this team a true championship contender this season?

What the Phoenix Suns do at an elite level

The three-headed monster of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal boasts an absurd amount of skill and bucket-getting. That’s before you mention useful shooters and second-side attackers like Allen and Eric Gordon. And to tie it all together, you have one of the better passing centers in the NBA in Nurkic to ensure the offense is operating smoothly

All that adds up to create a dynamic offense that can produce Beautiful Game-like ball movement sequences against weaker defenses (more on this in a bit) like the play you see in the clip below:

Since December 28th, Phoenix is first in the entire NBA in effective field goal percentage (60.8%). That is a nod to the sheer breadth of shot-making that is present on this roster.

When you have that much talent on your team, you give yourself such a high floor for your offense. And that’s exactly what we’ve seen so far in Phoenix. Despite still working out some kinks, the Suns are No. 2 in offensive rating since December 28th.

(Sidebar: The Suns have some of the best theoretical spacing in the NBA. Between Durant, Booker, Beal, Allen, and Gordon, Phoenix is one of the few teams in the NBA that can almost always field at least four shooters/spacers on the floor.)

Along with significantly overhauling their roster, the Suns made a coaching change this offseason – switching out Monty Williams for Frank Vogel. Vogel has been coaching in the NBA since 2001, and he made his bones in this league with his aptitude for defense.

This Suns’ roster leans toward offense. But they have still been solid on defense (15th in defensive rating since December 28th), and it’s thanks to the effort level Vogel has this bunch playing at.

An illustration of Vogel’s imprint on this team can be viewed in their performance against the New Orleans Pelicans on January 19th. On paper, the Pelicans’ offense should have feasted against a team like the Suns (they are great at scoring in the paint and the Suns don’t have a ton of interior size). However, the Suns held the Pelicans to an offensive rating of 107.0 (nearly 10 points below their average for the year) en route to a 123-109 victory.

A team with elite offensive personnel and a coach that is good enough to get them to buy in on defense smells like a title contender, right?

Where the Phoenix Suns struggle

As you could probably tell from the headline, things aren’t entirely perfect in paradise. Let’s start with the defense. This Phoenix team plays hard, but so does every team in the playoffs.

While the Suns may be 15th in defensive rating since they’ve been healthy, there are nine current playoff teams ahead of them in defensive rating during that stretch. And that’s not counting the Miami Heat, Denver Nuggets, and Los Angeles Lakers – three teams who will likely be in the playoffs that have better defensive personnel than the Suns (they just haven’t been performing great on that end since December 28th).

So, while the Suns are middle of the pack on defense in the regular season, they may be more like a bottom-quadrant team when you compare them to playoff teams.

(Sidebar #2: To build a good defense, you either need to be good at protecting the rim, creating turnovers, or defending at the point of attack. Ideally, you want to be good at more than one of these three facets of defense. Since December 28th, the Suns are 12th in opponent rim frequency and 13th in opponent turnover percentage. Those marks are solid but by no means spectacular. Meanwhile, their point-of-attack defense is primarily captained by Booker and Allen – both of these guys try super hard on defense, but for different reasons, they are limited in effectiveness in this role.)

Even if their defense is shaky, history tells us you can still compete for a title if your offense is elite. We’ve said the Suns have elite offensive personnel, but there are some reasons to be concerned with this team’s offensive ceiling.

As we alluded to earlier, while this Suns’ offense hums against weaker defenses, they can get stuck in the mud against stronger defenses – as we saw on January 28th against the Orlando Magic.

During their recent run, Phoenix has thrived against non top-10 defenses but struggled some when they are forced to square off against a top-10 defense.

The big reason for this is that, while the Suns are abundant in shot-making, they are lacking in playmaking. To his credit, Booker has done a great job of improving his acumen as a passer. He’s having a career year in Passer Rating, and he’s become much more adept at hitting high-level deliveries (like the skip pass).

However, the Suns are way too reliant on Booker’s passing growth. Their offensive rating sees a 14.2-point swing per 100 when Booker is on the floor compared to when he’s off it. That change is in the 97th percentile league wide.

Outside of him, Phoenix doesn’t have many other options for high-level on-ball creators/ball handlers, as evidenced by the fact the Suns are 29th in turnover rate (14.6%) since December 28th.

Another problem with their offense is that, despite touting pristine spacing personnel, Phoenix is still losing the math game. Since December 28th, the Suns are No. 2 in midrange frequency and 26th and 20th in rim and 3-point frequency, respectively.

You can win with the midrange. But your margin for error decreases when you lean on it as heavily as they do. And considering their concerns with defense and on-ball creation, that decrease becomes harder to swallow.

How good are the Suns?

The Suns have a bounty of offensive talent, and when they are firing on all cylinders, they can put together sequences/games that make their offense seem unstoppable. It’s also commendable how invested they are as a team on the defensive side of the ball.

But given the shortcomings we’ve outlined below, it’s hard to see them as being on the same plane as inner circle title contenders (those teams are the Boston Celtics, Nuggets, Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Los Angeles Clippers) without a significant move at the deadline (different topic for a different article).

With that said, there is still hope. According to Cleaning the Glass lineup data, Phoenix’s starting five (Booker, Durant, Beal, Allen, Nurkic) has the fifth-highest point differential (+14.2 per 100) of any lineup that has logged at least 400 possessions this year. That’s even higher than the Nuggets’ revered starting five of Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Jokic (+13.0 per 100).

This tells us that this team still has championship-level upside – if they can find a way to get everything to click. So, while Phoenix isn’t a top-tier contender right now, they have enough on their roster to make them worth keeping an eye on.