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McLaren has been good so far in 2024, but they might finish the year better
To hear the key players describe it, McLaren did not expect to be where they currently are in the Formula 1 standings.
As the summer shutdown draws to a close the Woking-based team sits second in the F1 Constructors’ Championship, just 42 points behind Red Bull on the year. That makes it mathematically possible they can overtake Red Bull in the standings the next time the grid roars to life, at the Dutch Grand Prix later this month. Drivers Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have combined for 12 Grand Prix podiums, and each driver has a Grand Prix victory in the year.
While they are enjoying the success, they did not expect to be here.
For example, Zak Brown, McLaren’s CEO, stated during the summer shutdown that he was “surprised” at the team’s standing this season. “If I were to sit here and say I’m not surprised, that would be disingenuous,” Brown told BBC Sport. “Red Bull had such an advantage over everyone and Mercedes has been so dominant.
“I felt like we’d continue to close the gap. Did I think we would be here at the summer break, one race away from getting the lead?
“That race would have to be first and second and fastest lap, and do I think it’s going to happen like that? No. But if we keep the same trajectory we’ve been on the last six, seven races, we’ll be where we need to be by the end of the year,” continued Brown. “I thought we might get where we are now by 2025. I didn’t think we would be where we are now in 2024. But I’m not complaining.”
Another reason their strong first half of the season might be a surprise?
The relative lack of upgrades the team has brought to the track.
As noted by Team Principal Andrea Stella, the team has not made many significant alterations to the MCL38 since the Miami Grand Prix. “In a way I’m surprised that we’ve been so competitive, considering that from Miami onwards we haven’t actually brought trackside many new parts,” said Stella recently.
The team’s submissions during each race week bear out that fact. Ahead of each race, F1 teams are required to turn in a “Car Presentation Submission” to the FIA. Article 19.1 c) of the Sporting Regulations highlights what is required: “Each competitor must provide a summary document to the Media Delegate listing the name and brief description of all major aerodynamic and bodywork components and assemblies that have not been run at a previous Competition or TCC (testing of current cars) and are intended to be run at the Competition.”
As we wrote at the time from Miami, McLaren’s submission that week was “substantial,” as they outlined ten new components to the MCL38. While one, an upgraded beam wing, was designated as “circuit specific” the rest were aimed at improving performance.
Driver Oscar Piastri, speaking at the FIA Press Conference that week, indicated his hopes that the upgrades would be a “step forward” for the team. “I think it’ll be a decent step forward. I think, you know, trying to stay on the trajectory from last year is what we’re aiming to do. But, you know, obviously as you get closer and closer to the limit of these cars and these regs, it becomes harder and harder to do. So we’ll see,” said Piastri. “But yeah, I think the upgrades we pulled off last year always worked well. So yeah, hopefully we can have a similar kind of effect this year.”
They certainly were a step forward, as those upgrades powered Lando Norris to his first Grand Prix victory.
However, looking through McLaren’s Car Presentation Submissions since then, you see a lot of race weekends with minimal “circuit specific” upgrades, if any.
At the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, McLaren had two new components, an upgraded rear wing, and an upgraded beam wing, both designated “circuit specific.” At the Monaco Grand Prix, McLaren again identified circuit-specific changes to the rear wing and the beam wing.
The team did not submit any updates for the Canadian Grand Prix, nor did they submit any updates for the Spanish Grand Prix.
The next set of upgrades came at the Austrian Grand Prix, where the team identified changes to the front wing and the front suspension. Both of these were identified as “performance” upgrades, and not circuit specific. These were aimed at improving the “aerodynamic load,” and “[maximizing] the improved flow characteristics.”
McLaren identified five upgrades for the British Grand Prix, all of which were circuit-specific upgrades. These included changes to the front wing, the engine cover, and multiple changes to the beam wing. While there were no upgrades identified at the Hungarian Grand Prix, McLaren added a few new components for the Belgian Grand Prix, all of which were circuit-specific.
So there you have it: Seven race weekends and the bulk of the identified upgrades to the MCL38 were circuit specific changes.
This leaves a lot of room for additional development in the second half of the season, something Stella noted recently. “So it means that obviously the Miami upgrade was big, but there’s some upgrades that will come in the second part of the season.” said the McLaren boss.
In addition, McLaren has another developmental arrow in their proverbial quiver: The aerodynamic testing regulations (ATR). As outlined in Appendix 7 to the Sporting Regulations, these regulations govern how much wind tunnel time and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) capacity each team can use for a specific ATR period. These are set by the previous year’s Constructors’ Championship standings, which govern the first six months of the year, and then are reset per the state of play at the end of June.
These work on a sliding scale, with teams getting more ATR time the lower they are in the standings. The team in seventh place gets “100%” of the allotted time, with the teams behind them getting 105% for eighth place, 110% for ninth place, and 115% for tenth place.
Meanwhile, the team atop the standings gets just 70% of the allotted time.
By finishing fourth a season ago, McLaren was able to have more ATR time than Red Bull, Mercedes, and Ferrari, the three teams that finished ahead of them. When this was reset at the end of June — governing how much time the teams would have over the last six months of this year — McLaren was in third, behind Red Bull and Ferrari.
That means that over these next few months, they have more time at their disposal than those two teams.
Stella pointed to that as another advantage for them.
“In terms of the ATR, I’m not sure. Effectively Red Bull have taken trackside more developments so far, in terms of physical parts delivered when you look at the submission, than what we have done,” said Stella. “But definitely, I can talk for McLaren, we seem to now be in condition to cash in some of this development that we have accrued, and I would expect that for the second part of the season we will have at multiple times some new parts.”
Of course, simply bringing upgrades to the track each week is no guarantee of success. You can just ask Ferrari how they have fared with their post-Monaco upgrades to the SF-24. McLaren will need to get the upgrades right to improve performance.
But if they do, watch out.
