8 NFL Divisional Round X-Factors that will determine playoff winners

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

These are the matchups we’re watching in the Divisional Round.

Divisional Round weekend of the NFL playoffs is often referred to as the best weekend of the NFL year. This weekend looks to be no exception to that rule, given the teams left standing, the quarterbacks we will see, and some of the matchups we can expect to see this weekend.

Given the teams left standing, and the talent we will see on the field this weekend, there is no shortage of storylines to look forward to when the games get going. From where we sit, here are the eight best storylines to watch during Divisional Round weekend.

Kellen Moore vs. DeMeco Ryans

The battle of wits between Kyle Shanahan and Dan Quinn might be the biggest storyline of the entire weekend. How will Quinn combat San Francisco’s “21 personnel” package of Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Kyle Juszczyk, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk? How will Quinn utilize Micah Parsons? There are so many storylines to anticipate when the 49ers have the football on Sunday.

But the undercard between Kellen Moore and DeMeco Ryans might be just as fascinating, and could have an even bigger impact on the game.

How will Moore attack one of the NFL’s best defenses? How will Ryans utilize the talent he has up front to pressure Dak Prescott? Will Prescott’s ability in the presnap phase of plays shine through on Sunday, or will the talented San Francisco defense get the better of him?

It will be just as fascinating to watch this storyline unfold.

— Mark Schofield

Trevor Lawrence vs. the Kansas City Crowd

There are some rules in life.

Don’t poke the bear. Don’t tug on Superman’s cape. Never get involved in a land war in Asia. Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.

And don’t dare an opposing crowd to be loud if you are an NFL quarterback facing your first road playoff game.

However, that is exactly what Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence did this week, when he said this:

Now, it is completely fair to point out the entirety of Lawrence’s statement, where he noted that the environment in Kansas City is “one of, if not the best, in the NFL.” He also noted that the stakes are higher in the Divisional Round, in juxtaposition to when the Jaguars played in Kansas City earlier this season.

But daring an opposing crowd when it comes to noise is often a bad idea.

— Mark Schofield

Brett Maher vs. Himself

This has been one of the wildest single player stories of the playoffs, and honestly I’m stunned the Cowboys seem hellbent on making this an issue for themselves. Dallas kicker Brett Maher stunk out loud in the Wild Card Round. His four missed field goals against the Buccaneers was a horrible performance for the ages, and thankfully for Maher it didn’t cost his team.

The reaction to one horrible game has been stunning. Perhaps it’s Mike McCarthy’s brand of motivation, but he decided to light a fire under Maher this week by signing a kicker off the street and publicly saying that Maher needed to “practice well this week” while dancing back and forth saying they have complete faith in the kicker, while acting the opposite.

Know how many kicks Maher missed this season prior to the playoffs? Six. Three field goals and three extra points. His field goal percentage of 90.6 percent was eighth in the NFL. THERE WERE 24 KICKERS WORSE THAN HIM IN 2022!

Instead of saying “that’s not like Brett,” the team more or less threw him under the bus. An extremely bizarre decision considering that Cowboys vs. 49ers could turn into a low-scoring, defensive affair that necessitates reliable kicking.

Maher will need to get rid of the yips to play well this week. It’s a battle of him against himself. Assuming the Cowboys decide to stick with the date they brought (and they should, because he was excellent this season), there’s now huge amounts of doubt that Maher will need to face every time he lines up for a kick.

Every field goal will be one to watch.

— James Dator

Brock Purdy vs. the Cowboys’ pass rush

I highlighted it earlier in a piece this week, but the best way to get 49ers QB/apparent next coming of Dan Marino Brock Purdy to come back down to earth is to get him under pressure.

Purdy hasn’t been pressured very much this season, but what the Cowboys can do is not only get pressure, but get pressure while also disguising the looks they give Purdy. Not every pressure has to be an all out blitz, but changing the picture up front could cause Purdy to revert back into bad habits he had in college. Cowboys DC Dan Quinn will need to be on his A game Sunday night.

— JP Acosta

Dak Prescott vs. Weird Narratives

In case you haven’t heard, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is pretty good. He also is perpetually underrated, which might have to do with the fact that he is playing for a team owned by a guy hell-bent on making a running back the focal point of hit offense.

Make no mistake, though, Prescott is just that. And what he also is is one of the best QBs left standing in the playoffs, despite what certain narratives might want to make you believe.

That is just… odd. Brock Purdy is one of the best stories in the NFL this season — the last pick in the draft getting thrown into a starting role and leading his team to the playoffs — but he is far from being one of the best quarterbacks.

Dak Prescott is. And he has not just the arm strength and mobility to prove it. Unlike what that picture above wants to make you believe, he is also superior to Purdy when it comes to those other traits.

But, as always, people need to see it for themselves. That means Prescott will have a prime opportunity to shut some of these strange narratives surrounding him down against Purdy and Co. in the divisional round.

— Bernd Buchmasser

Andy Reid vs. Doug Pederson

The relationship between these two coaches dates back to 1997, when Doug Pederson was a backup quarterback behind Brett Favre in Green Bay with the Packers.

And Andy Reid was his quarterback coach.

That was just the start of a long relationship between the two, one that began as player and coach, before evolving into coaching on the same staff. When Reid was hired to be the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, the team signed Pederson to be their starting quarterback, at least until rookie Donovan McNabb was ready.

And after Pederson retired and got into coaching at the high school level, his first NFL job was under Reid in Philadelphia. The two then moved on to Kansas City, with Pederson serving as the offensive coordinator under Reid with the Chiefs.

Now they meet for just the third time as head coaches, albeit with the stakes a little bit higher. Their first meeting came back during the 2017 season, when the Chiefs beat the Eagles — with Pederson as the head coach — by a score of 27-20 in Week 2. That was before the Eagles became the team that would go on to win Super Bowl LII.

They also met earlier this season, in a game won by the Chiefs by a final score of 27-17.

Does Reid make it three-straight wins over his former QB, or does Pederson get a huge win against his former coach?

— Mark Schofield

Daniel Jones vs. the city of Philadelphia

If it wasn’t for Geno Smith we’d be talking about Daniel Jones running away with the Comeback Player of the Year Award. Jones hasn’t always been remarkable this season, but he’s been extremely efficient and taken care of the football — core tenets for an offense that prioritizes controlling the ball and making good decisions over explosive plays.

This season Jones has been better at home than away, particularly when it comes to scoring and turning the ball over. In 2022 he posted a TD/INT ratio of 3.3:1 at home (10 TD, 3 INT), compared to 2.5:1 away (5 TD, 2 INT). The divisional playoffs are going to be in the most hostile location Jones has ever played considering the stakes, and the key to the Giants having a chance against Philadelphia will be managing the crowd — who are going to try and tear him apart.

If Jones can rise above the noise, the heckling, and the acrimony, New York might have a chance. If he can’t, this game is over before it begins.

— James Dator

The Bengals’ offensive line vs. the Bills’ pass rush

The Bengals’ inability to protect Joe Burrow deep in the playoffs last season became their most well known weakness on the way to a Super Bowl loss to the Rams last season. The Bills knew they had to address their pass rush over the offseason after falling to the Chiefs in an instant classic AFC Championship game. While both took major steps to improve their shortcomings, the Bengals’ o-line and the Bills’ pass rush are still under the microscope when the two sides meet in the Divisional Round.

The Bengals’ line made progress this season, cutting down Burrow’s sacks from a league-high 70 in 2021 to 45 this year. There’s only one problem: the injuries keep mounting up late into the season, and now Cincinnati will be without three key starters in the playoff game against Buffalo. The Bills made a splashy move to address the pass rush by signing future Hall of Famer Von Miller, but he hasn’t played since Nov. because of injury and continues to be sidelined. Buffalo has a deep front four and a very good defensive tackle in Ed Oliver, but they don’t exactly have world beaters on the pass rush without Miller.

A week ago, the Bills’ pass rush let Dolphins backup QB Skyler Thompson get way too comfortable behind his line. The Bengals let Burrow get sacked four times against Baltimore, and just never played up to their potential offensively as the playoffs opened. Who wins in a battle of weakness vs. weakness? That will go a long way to determining who advances in Bengals vs. Bills.

— Ricky O’Donnell