Dan Campbell’s gutsy fourth down decisions define the Lions

The Lions’ fourth down decisions are what give them an edge over other teams.

Most head coaches in the NFL will shrivel up at the sight of the situation the Detroit Lions faced on Thursday.

Against the Green Bay Packers, with a playoff berth on the line, Detroit faced a fourth and one from Green Bay’s 21-yard line in a tie game. 43 seconds left, which would point to most saying to kick a field goal. Even the analytics that most claim is anti-ball (and to an extent can be a little skewed) said to kick a field goal.

This one is via ESPN’s 4th down decision model:

Dan Campbell threw caution to the wind. Even after failing on their last fourth down, the Lions’ head coach sent out his offense to go win the game and send the Lions to the playoffs. The decision paid off, with David Montgomery taking a run from Jared Goff (who was stepped on during the play and made the handoff while falling down!) seven yards to get the first down. Three plays later, Jake Bates nails the field goal and Detroit is locked into the playoffs.

Not only is that fourth down call a gutsy decision, but it’s a reflection of good process and even better culture. Despite the previous fourth down failure, despite everything saying to kick the field goal, Dan Campbell did what every ball coach wants to do: he trusted his gut. The Packers didn’t have any timeouts left, so factoring in the fact that they couldn’t stop the clock if the Lions got the fourth down, this decision makes a lot of sense. In addition, with the Packers having no timeouts, if the Lions kick the field goal and make it, they would have around 40 seconds with QB Jordan Love, who was playing really well in the second half. Detroit’s defense was battered by injuries going in and had many of their entrenched starters go down during the game. It’s not a sure thing that they get the stop they need, so trust the healthier side of the ball in that situation. Campbell explains it as the major reason why he went for it:

Above everything else: it’s one yard with arguably the best offensive line in football. While Bates has been good this season, you always want to give your kicker the easiest kick he has to make. In this situation, Campbell decided to give his best players the ball, by running behind right tackle Penei Sewell and with David Montgomery.

This is a culture-affirming play, a play that defines what the Detroit Lions are. Campbell’s willingness to let his guys decide the outcome of games is so cool in these moments, in these games where the margins between both teams are extremely small. The Packers played an incredible game; their defense did their job for the most part, and like I said, the offense got more explosive as the game went on. The difference in this game was the aggression on fourth down, that winning within the margins separates a winning team from a losing team. The Packers had to take a delay of game on a 4th down early in the game and punted, while also punting on 4th and 3. The Lions, on the other hand:

This aggression on 4th down is simply who they are. It’s the thing that separates them from the good teams into the elite. Every team needs their edge, the thing they have that’ll put them over the hump against anyone. Kansas City has some guy named Patrick Mahomes. The Eagles have RB Saquon Barkley and a punishing run game. This is the Lions’ edge. They can create within the margins better than anyone else, and it’s a reflection of the trust they have in themselves.