Houston is limping into the playoffs, but this is about more than injuries.
The Texans entered the 2024 season as one of the hottest future teams in the NFL. There was so much hype behind the team that they were a prospective dark horse to make it to the Super Bowl after stunning rookie seasons from C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson, and coach DeMeco Ryans.
It seemed like the team was destined for greatness, and while the Texans did their job in 2024 and made it to the playoffs, now we’re here in the Wild Card round they have the look and feel of a team about to be bounced immediately. When it comes to separating the contenders from the pretenders, it’s fair to wonder if Houston are the biggest frauds of the postseason.
Several factors go into this.
No. 1: A 10-7 record against an easy schedule
The Texans finished the 2024 season with a combined strength of schedule of -0.7. This metric from Football Reference evaluates a schedule against all teams in the NFL, and by this measure, 10 teams in the AFC had more difficult schedules.
The only other team from the AFC in the playoffs who faced a worse schedule was the Buffalo Bills (-1.7), but there’s a chasm of difference between going 13-4 and 10-7 against weak schedules.
Inconsistency was a major factor for the Texans this season. One moment they’re beating the Bills, the next they’re losing to the Titans and Jets. Houston’s slide in 2024 was astonishing down the stretch, and part of that dovetails into the second problem.
No. 2: Houston coped horribly with injuries
While it’s certainly fair to note that the Texans had a fair helping of significant injuries this season, it’s also largely an excuse. At this point in the year, everyone is missing key players — and while Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs aren’t exactly guys you can replace easily, the team was also woeful at coming up with strategies to mitigate their losses.
The Lions are the gold standard of scheming around their issues while remaining competitive. The coaching work in 2024 was absolutely stunning (particularly on defense) to stop the game plan in its tracks and come up with something different.
Houston was unable to do this. The team routinely tried to jam a square peg into a round hole, then were stunned when it didn’t work. That’s part of the reason they lost five of their last 10 games.
No. 3: The Texans haven’t beaten anyone good in a long time
You have to go back to Week 5 when the Texans beat the Bills to find a game where Houston won against a team that finished with a winning record. It’s not their fault they had an easy schedule, but it is their fault for not executing it.
If we look at the Texans schedule this season they narrowly beat the Jaguars and Dolphins and lost to the aforementioned Titans and Jets. This is not the resume of a team with serious playoff aspirations aside from making it in because they happen to be in a terrible division.
No. 4: C.J. Stroud simply hasn’t been good in a while
One of the things that made Stroud’s rookie performance so incredible was the immediate rapport he developed with Nico Collins and Tank Dell. It’s what positioned the team as potential world-beaters before the year.
Losing Dell was a blow, but that doesn’t change the fact that Stroud has been poor in his sophomore season — particularly in the last handful of games. Since Halloween, he’s only thrown nine touchdowns to eight interceptions, and his completion percentage has dropped from the high-60s and low-70s, to now into the high-50s at times.
The only good game against a good team was the Bills game, but outside of that here are Stroud’s passer ratings when facing other playoff teams this season.
- Vikings: 68.6
- Packers: 58.8
- Lions: 64.2
- Chiefs: 73.0
- Ravens: 54.8
It’s true that all QBs naturally struggle more against better competition, but the way Stroud has bottomed out against good teams indicates he’s really not prepared to lead the Texans to victory in the playoffs.
The future is still bright in Houston, just not right now
There have been a lot of problems bubbling for much of the season when it comes to the Texans, and they came to a head just before the playoffs. This team is limping into the Wild Card round both physically, but also mentally. Organizationally it feels like the team is out of ideas on how to scheme up ways to win, and Stroud’s confidence has taken a big hit.
Still, the building blocks are there for the Texans to be great. This is more a case of flying a little too close to the sun and coming back down to earth. My expectation is that the Texans will get overwhelmed by the Chargers this week, particularly when it comes to coaching and quarterbacking.
It’s a learning experience a lot of young teams need to go through, and perhaps the expectations that they’d be like the Bengals to find an immediate path to the Super Bowl was too much — now they find themselves as the biggest pretenders of the Wild Card round.
