UConn? South Carolina? USC? We broke down some data in an attempt to figure out who has the best chance of winning a national title in women’s basketball this year.
It goes without saying, but winning the national championship in women’s college basketball is no easy task. Good players are a requirement, excellent coaching is a big plus, and a bit of luck – whether it’s drawing a favorable opponent in the bracket or having an unlikely 3-pointer fall through the hoop – helps a whole lot.
But there are some metrics that can help us predict who the winner of the 2025 NCAA Tournament might be. Every champion since 2010 has ranked no worse than fourth in Her Hoop Stats Rating, which is what a team’s expected scoring margin per 100 possessions would be against an average team. For example, Duke is ninth in HHS Rating with a mark of 37.7.
Additionally, among those 14 champions, all but three have ranked in the top 30 in rebounds per game in the year they won the title. And all but two ranked in the top 20 of opponent effective field goal percentage – a sign they were really good at defending.
When considering these three stats, Gary Blair’s 2011 Texas A&M team was the only real outlier, ranking 104th in rebounding and 93rd nationally in EFG defense. Muffet McGraw’s 2018 Notre Dame had poor EFG defense too, ranking 163rd, while 2017 South Carolina and 2016 UConn weren’t all that great at rebounding.
But typically – the numbers show – efficiency, rebounding and defense wins championships.
With those metrics in mind, let’s rank the teams who have the potential to win it all this year. And a special thanks to Her Hoop Stats for the data.
7. LSU
The Tigers have all the marks of a potential national champion. Kim Mulkey’s squad is seventh in HHS Rating, third in rebounding and 23rd in EFG defense. The big question for LSU is, will Flau’Jae Johnson be able to play in the NCAA Tournament. Mulkey has already counted her out of the SEC Tournament.
If the junior point guard who leads LSU in scoring with 18.9 points per game isn’t totally healthy in the Big Dance, that diminishes the Tigers’ chances of going far.
6. UConn
The Huskies are first in HHS Rating and 14th in EFG defense, both strong marks of a legitimate contender. But the rebounding is a real concern. UConn ranks 150th nationally in rebounds per game and an awful 252nd in offensive rebounding, grabbing an average of just 10 of their own misses per game.
While the Huskies have arguably the best freshman in the country patrolling the paint in Sarah Strong, she averages just 7.9 boards per game and UConn doesn’t really have another player with a strong inside presence. But UConn can’t be counted out. Any team with Strong, Azzi Fudd and Paige Bueckers – and with Geno Auriemma coaching them – has a chance to go far in March Madness.
5. Texas
Vic Schaefer’s Longhorns have proven that they’re legitimate contenders for the national title this season by beating some of the best teams in the country. Madison Booker, Rori Harmon, Taylor Jones and co. went 15-1 in a very tough SEC and split with South Carolina. Their only other loss this season was on the road in overtime to Notre Dame.
Texas ranks third in HHS Rating, 27th in rebounding and 17th in EFG defense. Those are all good enough to help them keep dancing into April.
4. USC
The Trojans winning the national championship ranking sixth in HHS Rating would obviously buck the trend we’ve seen over the past decade-and-a-half, where no team worse than fourth in the metric has won the title. But there’s still games to play and still time for USC to move up that leaderboard in the stat. Furthermore, USC’s other stats line up with the trends: it is 11th in rebounds per game and seventh in EFG defense.
And it’s hard to ignore what USC has done lately, sweeping rival UCLA by double figures in each game to win the Big Ten regular season title. Along the way, they’ve also defeated the likes of Ole Miss, UConn, Maryland and Ohio State.
As it turns out, having a player like JuJu Watkins on your roster – like Breanna Stewart did for Geno Auriemma, like Arike Ogunbowale did for Muffet McGraw, like A’ja Wilson did for Dawn Staley – can increase your chances of winning a national title.
3. Notre Dame
The Irish are fifth in HHS Rating, fourth in rebounds per game and eighth in EFG defense. While Notre Dame has had a few stumbles this season, like losing to TCU and Utah in the Cayman Islands, and losing back-to-back games last month against N.C. State and Florida State, two cases can still be made: No other team has a collection of wins as impressive as the Irish, and no other team has a better trio of guards.
Notre Dame is 14-4 in Quad 1 and 2 games, with wins over USC, Texas, UConn, North Carolina and Duke. And all of those victories came by double figures.
Hannah Hidalgo is the ACC Player of the Year, Olivia Miles is likely a lock to land on an All-American team, and Sonia Citron will probably be a top-five pick in the WNBA Draft. While lacking some consistency, this Notre Dame team is talented and tested.
2. South Carolina
Yes, Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks have lost more games in this regular season that we ever expected them to – three defeats, gasp! – but South Carolina still looks like a legitimate contender for the national title. South Carolina is second in HHS Rating, eighth in rebounds per game and fourth in EFG defense. Simply put, while this Gamecocks’ team might lack star power, it still has all the signatures of a good Staley-coached team: they rebound, they play defense and they’re disciplined. That can take you a long way in the NCAA Tournament.
1. UCLA
Only two teams since 2010 that have ranked fourth in HHS Rating have won the national championship: 2011 Texas A&M and 2018 Notre Dame. But it’s worth noting that UCLA is considerably better than both in rebounding and defending. The Bruins are fifth in rebounds per game this season and fifth in EFG defense.
UCLA has only lost two games all season, both to rival USC. This team led by Lauren Betts and Kiki Rice has proven that they’re capable of getting to the Final Four. The question is, will they run into USC again when they get there?
