NBA Draft’s top prospects showed their flaws during March Madness so far

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Breaking down the struggles of the top NBA Draft prospects from the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament

More than any time over the last 20 years, the college game is an old man’s game.

Thanks to the transfer portal explosion and an extra year of eligibility for all those who were impacted by the COVID-shortened 2020 season, teams are older than ever. Elite teams are relying on that age and experience to carry them to success, which we’re seeing throughout the NCAA Tournament.

One of the residual effects of these older rosters is that, when careers and games are on the line, the freshmen tend to struggle. From an NBA perspective, it’s been a tough weekend for some of the top names in the 2023 draft class. Veteran-filled physical teams are making their lives difficult, referees are swallowing their whistles, and the young guys are struggling as a result.

Should that sour our perception of many prospects long-term? Probably not. Talent wins out in the end, and in a few years, these freshmen will grow into their bodies. However, it’s made for a tough tournament thus far for NBA fans — especially those whose teams have high draft picks in 2023.

Brandon Miller, Alabama

Seen by many as the top college prospect in the 2023 draft class, Brandon Miller had a hit-or-miss weekend. Miller has been playing through a strained groin, and in Alabama’s first-round blowout win against Texas A&M Corpus Christi he only played 19 minutes. Miller was held scoreless in that game (0-5 from the field) but did contribute three assists, including a sweet lob to open the game.

Miller’s second-round contest against Maryland was a little better by the numbers (19 points, seven rebounds) but was marred by inefficient shooting (5-17 from the field, including 3-11 from inside the arc). The game was physical throughout, and Miller’s nine points at the half kept the Crimson Tide in it early. They exploded for 45 points in the second half, featuring a sick stretch from Miller who turned a block into a 3-pointer in transition on the other end:

This wasn’t Miller’s best shooting stretch, and as a scorer he didn’t impact the game too well this weekend. Considering he was playing through a groin injury, the performance was pretty sturdy, and his competitiveness to push past the ailment is noteworthy. The Crimson Tide will have a stingy defensive opponent in San Diego State awaiting them in the Sweet Sixteen.

Nick Smith and Anthony Black, Arkansas

The Arkansas Razorbacks knocked off defending national champions Kansas in a Saturday matinee thriller. The win came two days after besting a talented Illinois squad in the first round. The heroes for the Razorbacks during those two wins were the non-lottery prospects on their team. Point guard Devo Davis paced them in scoring, sophomore Ricky Council gained some fans as a balanced finisher and passer, and freshman Jordan Walsh played suffocating defense throughout.

Smith, thought by many to be a lottery pick, struggled mightily. He was held scoreless in 16 minutes against Kansas, went 2-10 from the field against Illinois, and didn’t make a 3-pointer (0-4) on the weekend. Smith’s struggles are likely related to a knee injury he’s been battling for most of the season. It’s hard to say right now what will happen to his NBA Draft stock, but seeing the Razorbacks play better without him certainly isn’t moving him up any boards.

As for Black, his defensive activity and high-IQ passing is a constant. The question for Black has always been scoring. He’s a 6’8” point guard who loves to create for others, but going 0-3 from deep on the weekend and 5-15 from inside the arc don’t help move the needle for him. Black has some fans who see him as a top-ten pick, but he’s trending more toward the back portion of the lottery lately.

The good news for both Smith and Black is that the Razorbacks are moving onto the Sweet Sixteen, giving them each more time to control the narrative and put together impressive performances to end their seasons.

Gradey Dick, Kansas

If there was one thing Anthony Black did well on Saturday, it was to limit Kansas sharpshooter Gradey Dick and chase him all over the court. Dick is college basketball’s version of Klay Thompson. Dick doesn’t dribble the ball very often, instead zipping off screens, moving continuously, and sprinting to the 3-point line in transition. A 6’8” wing, Dick finished his freshman season drilling 40.3% of his triples.

Dick’s game against Arkansas was far from his best. He had 7 points on 9 shots, only went 1-3 from deep, and couldn’t get open looks almost all afternoon. In games where Dick had 7 points or fewer, the Jayhawks were 1-5 on the year. When Dick had 8 points or more, they were 27-3.

Gradey found ways to impact the game for the better. He rebounds really well for a shooting specialist, particularly on the offensive glass — he had 8 offensive boards in two tournament games. He’s a smart connective passer, runs hard in transition, and had 19 points, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 steals to open the weekend against Howard. You could see in that game how he can be great at the next level:

There are still significant questions about how Gradey holds up on defense at the point of attack against great athletes. The hope moving forward is that, on an NBA floor with other scorers that defenses have to lock in on, the lack of extra attention will significantly open up his offensive game. He’s a rumored top-10 pick who will need the right team and defensive framework to mask some of his notable flaws.

Cason Wallace, Kentucky

In the middle of the season, Wallace slid over from the 2-guard spot to the lead guard position for the Wildcats. Point guard Sahvir Wheeler hasn’t played since February 4th due to injury, but Kentucky hasn’t missed a beat since. Wallace, who slid over to take that starting spot, averaged 11.1 points, 6.1 assists, and 2.5 turnovers since making the transition. He’s battled injuries throughout and really struggled to hit a shot: he was 3-26 from 3 over the seven games leading into the tourney.

Wallace is the ultimate competitor and a sensational defender. The offense hasn’t been at a high level for a few weeks (especially from deep), but his decision-making, effort for loose balls, scrappy defensive moments, and insanely high basketball IQ pop off the screen when you watch a full 40-minute game.

Wallace will be a bit of an acquired taste come draft season. He’s not going to pass many eye tests on offense, and the production at Kentucky doesn’t scream ‘lottery pick’. But he’s a very safe prospect in the sense that he will be a lockdown perimeter defender. The Wildcats lost a tight game to Kansas State on Sunday, meaning Wallace will finish the season on a major cold streak.

Some noteworthy positives

Just outside of the consensus lottery, there were a few draft prospects who played really well during the opening weekend and deserve their flowers…

Of all the lottery-projected prospects, nobody was better than Houston’s Jarace Walker. Through two tournament games, he’s averaging 11.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 4.0 blocks. He completely decimated Auburn with six swats and brings game-changing energy on defense. The Cougars are one of the toughest teams in the nation, and that has a lot to do with his steady production and tenacious defensive presence.

Duke big man Dereck Lively was outstanding on defense, particularly during their opening-round thumping of Oral Roberts. He only scored four points the entire tournament, but Lively averaged 11.5 boards, 4.0 blocks, and 1.0 assists. His defense was versatile, too — he’s a rim protector in Drop coverage, can blitz or switch onto the perimeter and hold his own, and is exceptional at deterring shots near the hoop. He’s climbing closer to the lottery and has been sensational over the final eight weeks of the season.

It’s hard to find a more productive college player than Trayce Jackson-Davis. The Indiana big man was wildly successful for the Hoosiers over the weekend despite their second-round exit at the hands of Miami. A small-ball 5, TJD showed real defensive chops by swatting 10 shots in two games and was fantastic as a passer in transition. The versatility and evolution of his game on both ends could have him back in the first-round conversation.