Photo by Brad Smith/USSF/Getty Images for USSF
What the USWNT needs to do against Portugal to advance at the Women’s World Cup
As the U.S. Women’s National Team prepares for their final match of group play at the Women’s World Cup, they find themselves in rather unfamiliar territory.
Coming off a draw in group play, and working through the permutations of how they will advance to the knockout round.
Following their 1-1 draw with the Netherlands — snapping a streak of 13-straight wins at the Women’s World Cup dating back to 2015 — the USWNT enters their final match of group play against Portugal still needing to book their spot in the Round of 16.
Here is how they can advance, how they can win the group, and how they could still be eliminated.
Current standings and final matches
Here are the current standings in Group E:
Here is the state of play heading into the final matches.
In those final matches, the United States plays Portugal, while the Netherlands plays Vietnam. Both matches begin at 3:00 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, August 2.
Now let’s move to the various scenarios, starting with the bad news first.
How the United States can be eliminated
Yes, the USWNT can be eliminated on Tuesday, although it is the most unlikely of the various scenarios.
First, they would need to lose against Portugal. That would leave the US on four points in group play, and would vault Portugal ahead of the as Portugal would now be on six points. In this scenario, it would come down to the result between the Netherland and Vietnam. A subsequent win or draw from the Netherlands, and the United States would be eliminated.
In this scenario, they could still be eliminated with a loss by the Netherlands against Vietnam. In this hypothetical, both the US and the Netherlands would have four points from group play. Then it would come down to tiebreakers. The first tiebreaker is goal differential. Right now the US has a goal differential of +3, while the Netherlands has a goal differential of +1. If, hypothetically, the Netherlands loses by one goal to Vietnam, that would drop their GD to 0. Meaning the US would need to lose by four goals or more to lose the goal differential tiebreaker to the Netherlands.
Unlikely, but possible.
If both teams lose, and the Netherlands loses by one goal to Vietnam, a US loss to Portugal by three goals would put both teams’ goal differential to 0. That would advance to the next tiebreaker, which is total goals scored. Right now the United States has the advantage, with four goals to two from the Netherlands.
How the United States can advance
With the bad news out of the way, let’s now examine the ways the USWNT can still advance, starting with how they can win the group.
How the USWNT can win Group F
Winning Group F with a win over Portugal
There are a few different ways the US can win the group. We will start with a potential win over Portugal. That would put the USWNT on seven points from group play, and eliminate Portugal.
It would then come down to the result between the Netherlands and Vietnam in terms of what else would need to happen.
A win over Portugal coupled with either a draw in that match, or a win by Vietnam, and the US is through to the knockout round regardless of the score in the US-Portugal match.
A US win over Portugal, coupled with a Netherlands win over Vietnam, would put both teams on seven points from group play. Then tiebreakers would come into play.
As noted above, the first tiebreaker is goal differential. Right now the US had the advantage, with a GD of +3 compared to +1 for the Netherlands. So provided that the US wins over Portugal by the same — or greater — margin than the Netherlands’ victory over Vietnam in this hypothetical, the US wins the group.
For example, if each team wins 1-0, the US would have a GD of +4, compared with a GD of +2 for the Netherlands. Additionally, a 2-0 US win coupled by a 1-0 Netherlands win moves the US goal differential to +6, while the Netherlands sees their goal differential improve to +2. In both scenarios, the US wins the group.
The US can also advance if the Netherlands has a bigger win margin, and there is some room for error here. If the US wins by one goal, their goal differential improves to +4. The Netherlands would need a win by four goals to get their GD to +5 to win the tiebreaker. A one-goal win for the US, coupled with a three-goal win for the Netherlands, would put both teams’ goal differential to +4. Then it would come down to the next tiebreaker, which is total goals scored.
Here is a chart to help with the various goal differential permutations between the United States and the Netherlands:
Should it somehow come down to the second tiebreaker, the United States would be in the driver’s seat there as well. Heading into the final matches of group play the US has the advantage, four goals to two.
Winning Group F with a draw against Portugal
The US can still win the group with a draw against Portugal.
That would put the US on five points, with a goal differential of +3 (their current margin, as it would not change with a draw.)
A draw in the match between the Netherlands and Vietnam would also put the Netherlands on five points.
It would also not change their current goal differential, which is +1. The USWNT would win that tiebreaker, and win the group.
How the USWNT can advance as the second-place finishers
Now let’s worth through the scenarios where the US advances as the second-place finisher in Group F. We outlined most of them above, where they would lose in tiebreaker scenarios with the Netherlands when it came to winning the group. But there is one more scenario where they could advance as the second team out of Group F.
That is a draw against Portugal and a Netherlands win over Vietnam. That would put the US on five points, and the Netherlands on seven. The Netherlands wins the group, and the United States finishes second.
What comes next for Group F
As we conclude it is worth mentioning what comes next for Group F. The winner of Group F is slated to play the second-place finisher from Group H. The second-place finisher in Group F takes on the winner of Group H.
Here are the current standings in Group H:
As outlined here, all four teams in Group H are alive, with Colombia having the inside track to winning the group. Group H concludes play on August 3.
Hopefully the USWNT has a reason to watch those matches.
