Why the Orioles should make a big splash for Justin Verlander at the MLB trade deadline

Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images

The Baltimore Orioles are in a fascinating position as the deadline approaches

When you walk through the concourse at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, numbers are everywhere. Numbers that pay tribute to historic moments in baseball history, such as 2,632, which marks the consecutive-games streak set by Cal Ripken Jr. Then there are the team’s host of retired numbers, including Ripken’s “8,” Earl Weaver’s “4,” and the “22” of Jim Palmer. There are also the numbers baseball fans are accustomed to seeing, such as section numbers and the like, but one number stands above all.

1983.

That marks the last time the Baltimore Orioles reached the summit of Major League Baseball. A season that came to an end with the Orioles topping the Philadelphia Phillies four games to one in the World Series, marking the third time in franchise history that the Orioles had captured a title.

As the days tick down to the 40th anniversary of that accomplishment, the time is now for the Orioles to make a move to mark that milestone in the best way possible.

By winning another.

Tuesday marks MLB’s trade deadline, and for the first time in what feels like a very long time, the Orioles are poised to be buyers, and with good reason. As the sun rose Tuesday, the Orioles are in first place in the AL East, 1.5 games ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays. As the sun set on Monday night, bringing July to a close, it brought to an end a pivotal month for Baltimore.

After all, the Orioles went 16-9 in the month of July, for a winning percentage of .640, which is their best since April, when they went 18-9. But what stands out about this past month is who they played. Baltimore played the Minnesota Twins, the New York Yankees, the Miami Marlins, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Philadelphia Phillies, and the Rays over the course of July.

25 games against teams over .500. 25 games against teams either leading their division (Minnesota and Los Angeles), in the playoff hunt (New York, Philadelphia, and Miami), and in one particular case, their biggest competition for the division (Tampa Bay).

In fact, when Baltimore’s July series against the Rays began they were tied with Tampa Bay for first place in the East.

The Orioles took three-of-four game, to take the lead in the division.

But on this day. Deadline Day, the Orioles have a chance to make a big move. To put themselves in a position to add yet another number to those hallowed halls of Camden Yards.

2023.

Their biggest need? Pitching.

Tyler Wells, who was a revelation at the start of the season, was just sent down to their Doub le-A affiliate, the Bowie Baysox. Wells started the year with a 6-2 record on the bump but has seen his effectiveness wane in recent starts, and his last three starts led to concern. Against the Dodgers on July 18 Wells lasted just two innings, giving up five earned runs in a 7-5 Baltimore loss. Against the Rays on July 23, Wells managed just 4.1 innings of work giving up three earned runs and taking a no-decision in a game Baltimore ultimately won.

Then in his most recent start, against the Yankees, Wells lasted just 2.2 innings before giving way, allowing three earned runs.

While Wells is in Bowie sorting things out the Orioles still have options in the rotation, such as Kyle Gibson, Kyle Bradish, the youngster Grayson Rodriguez, and Dean Kremer, who leads the Orioles with ten wins on the year. Baltimore can also look to Cole Irvin, who is 1-3 in just eight starts. However, this is a young group — the 35-year-old Gibson is the veteran of the bunch — and there is little experience in a playoff push among this rotation.

But if the Orioles want to make a run, adding a top-flight arm, one that has been through a playoff push, is the move.

The name most commonly linked with Baltimore is Justin Verlander, and Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported Tuesday morning that the Orioles are pursuing a trade for the pitcher. While this has been a dismal year for the New York Mets, Verlander’s 6-5 record fails to do justice to what he can still do on the bump. The reigning AL Cy Young Winner did not make his first start until the beginning of May, and was shaking off some rust as he was coming back from a shoulder injury.

But consider what he did in July. After starting the year 2-4 on the bump in the win/loss column, Verlander went 4-1 in July — again for a team that is struggling — and posted a 1.69 ERA. He also held opposing batters to a batting average of just .167 on the month. He also has a WHIP of 1.018 over the course of July.

Adding that kind of arm, and experience, to the rotation would be a coup for the Orioles.

But there are some potential hurdles. Verlander has a no-trade clause, and while Baltimore could make the argument that he grew up in the area — Verlander grew up in the Richmond area and played his college baseball at Old Dominion — it is unclear if Verlander would be willing to make the move.

Then there is the potential for a bidding war. Given Verlander’s experience, the Orioles are not the only team exploring a potential move for the veteran pitcher. The Los Angeles Dodgers are commonly linked with Verlander, as are the Houston Astros. That could drive the price for such a deal up to an area the Orioles do not feel comfortable.

After all, Baltimore General Manager Mike Elias could be justified in sitting pat. The roster he has constructed is already in first place in the AL East, and he has also helped assemble one of the deepest farm systems in all of Major League Baseball. Currently, the Orioles have eight of baseball’s Top-100 prospects, including Jackson Holliday, the top prospect in all of baseball.

Would he be willing to breakup that farm system for a short-term rental? It is a fascinating proposition. On Baltimore-area radio Tuesday morning ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian discussed such a proposition:

Elias himself has said that while he does want to improve the roster — with pitching the likely area he would address — the roster they have is already capable of contending.

“It doesn’t mean that we don’t want to improve,” Elias said last Friday. “The Dodgers are pretty good, too, and they’re bringing in some extra help. So obviously, we’re looking at that. But I think, very clearly, this team has revealed itself to be as capable as anyone arguably in all of baseball right now to make a playoff run.”

Elias could come to a press conference at the end of the day, say simply that the roster Baltimore has built is already in first place, and given the fact the Orioles have one of the best farm systems in baseball, making a move “just to make a move” would be a mistake. After all, as constructed right now the Orioles are clearly competing in 2023, but they have the farm system to contend in 2024, and beyond. That is a rare spot to be in for a franchise.

He could further make the argument that the Orioles are simply ahead of schedule, they are playing with house money, and anything that happens from today going forward is icing on a delicious cake he has built.

But here is the thing.

The competition does not stand still.

Elias is faced with one of the toughest tasks in baseball, which is competing in a division along with the Yankees and the Red Sox. Two organizations that are locked in a perpetual arms race, willing to spend — in most cases — whatever it takes to beat the other.

And yet, what he has built is ahead of them. For now.

But that could change this off-season.

Baltimore has a chance to go all-in and capitalize on what has been a down year for some of the teams in the AL East. They have a chance to add an arm like Verlander, fill out that rotation for a stretch run, and make a true sprint to the finish.

And maybe, just maybe, add another number at Camden Yards.